Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cincinnati
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (7-5, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Cincinnati (9-3, 6-2 AAC) on Saturday, Dec. 17 at 11:00 p.m. EST for the Fenway Bowl at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bearcats:
- Rankings:
| Cincinnati | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY/CFP | RV/RV/NR | NR/NR/NR |
SOS | 93rd | 27th |
SP+ | 27th | 38th |
FPI | 34th | 25th |
Sagarin | 41st | 32nd |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Cincinnati | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 64th (392.8) | 54th (405.1) |
Scoring Offense | 46th (31.1) | 76th (27.2) |
Passing Yards | 44th (255.9) | 92nd (211.7) |
Yards Per Completion | 43rd (12.74) | 56th (12.39) |
Rushing Yards | 88th (136.8) | 35th (193.4) |
First Downs Gained | 91st (231) | 83rd (240) |
3rd Down Con. % | 78th (37.9%) | 90th (36.8%) |
4th Down Con % | 20th (63.2%) | 113th (37.9%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 18th (90.0%) | 64th (84.4%) |
Turnovers Lost | 20th (13) | 90th (20) |
Interceptions Thrown | 43rd (8) | 74th (10) |
Fumbles Lost | 20th (5) | 94th (10) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 28th (4.50) | 68th (5.67) |
Sacks Allowed | 88th (2.58) | 71st (2.17) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 104th (28:20) | 65th (29:51) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Cincinnati | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 23rd (328.5) | 35th (347.1) |
Scoring Defense | 23rd (20.3) | 19th (20.2) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 17th (186.4) | 34th (206.5) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 49th (142.1) | 48th (140.6) |
First Downs Allowed | 59th (242) | 41st (228) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 61st (37.7%) | 36th (34.6%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 34th (43.5%) | 1st (15.8%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 24th (77.5%) | 10th (73.8%) |
Turnovers Gained | 62nd (17) | 3rd (28) |
Interceptions Caught | 71st (9) | 10th (15) |
Fumbles Recovered | 44th (8) | 5th (13) |
Sacks Per Game | 20th (2.83) | 2nd (3.58) |
TFL Per Game | 15th (7.2) | 12th (7.2) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Cincinnati | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 2nd (44.69) | 30th (40.44) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 56th (20.67) | 5th (25.21) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 14th (16.89) | 13th (16.86) |
Avg. Punt Return | 21st (11.36) | 101st (5.24) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 16th (3.50) | 39th (5.52) |
Field Goal Attempts | 19-23 | 19-21 |
PAT | 44-44 | 35-36 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 55.4 percent chance to win against the Bearcats. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.8 (25th overall), whereas Cincinnati has an FPI rating of 7.3 (34th overall).
- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 40.93 percent chance to take down the Bearcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 9.2 (38th overall), whereas Cincinnati has an SP+ rating of 13.1 (27th overall).
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 14, Cincinnati 10.
(Photo of Trey Franklin, Chandler Jones: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
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