Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-3, 0-3 ACC) is set to face Virginia (2-3, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 8 at 12:00 p.m. EST at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:
- Rankings:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/NR | NR/NR |
SOS | 26th | 30th |
SP+ | 78th | 60th |
FPI | 78th | 50th |
Sagarin | 87th | 55th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 99th (364.4) | 52nd (430.0) |
Scoring Offense | 118th (18.0) | 90th (26.4) |
Passing Yards | 93rd (210.0) | 87th (221.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 85th (11.41) | 62nd (12.14) |
Rushing Yards | 69th (154.4) | 24th (209.0) |
First Downs Gained | 73rd (103) | 53rd (110) |
3rd Down Con. % | 87th (36.2%) | 79th (36.8%) |
4th Down Con. % | 96th (37.5%) | 104th (33.3%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 98th (76.5%) | 79th (81.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 116th (12) | 108th (10) |
Interceptions Thrown | 89th (5) | 69th (4) |
Fumbles Lost | 121st (7) | 116th (6) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 70th (5.60) | 70th (5.60) |
Sacks Allowed | 95th (2.60) | 76th (2.20) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 103rd (28:13) | 52nd (30:33) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 52nd (355.4) | 66th (369.8) |
Scoring Defense | 56th (23.0) | 60th (23.4) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 39th (199.4) | 49th (210.4) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 86th (156.0) | 89th (159.4) |
First Downs Allowed | 85th (105) | 45th (90) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 43rd (33.8%) | 51st (34.8%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 47th (50.0%) | 8th (16.7%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 97th (88.2%) | 17th (70.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 28th (9) | 28th (9) |
Interceptions Caught | 100th (2) | 21st (6) |
Fumbles Recovered | 3rd (7) | 60th (3) |
Sacks Per Game | 18th (3.00) | 13th (3.20) |
TFL Per Game | 56th (6.0) | 15th (7.4) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 119th (34.21) | 21st (41.84) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 19th (25.46) | 78th (19.64) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 113th (24.56) | 59th (19.43) |
Avg. Punt Return | 130th (-0.20) | 121st (3.00) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 112th (13.22) | 63rd (6.80) |
Field Goal Attempts | 5-9 | 7-8 |
PAT | 9-11 | 15-16 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 63.3 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 4.7 (50th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of -2.6 (78th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.54 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.6 (60th overall), whereas Virginia has an SP+ rating of -0.7 (78th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Post-Week 4: 5.71
- Post-Week 5: 4.65
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, Virginia 21.
(Photo via Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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