Three Keys to Louisville's Second Half Rebound
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program has reached the halfway point of their 2021 season, and it's safe to say it has been a roller coaster year up to this point.
After getting blown out against Ole Miss in Atlanta, Ga. to open the season, the Cardinals then fired off a three-game win streak against Eastern Kentucky, UCF and Florida State. That was then followed up with a two-game slide heading into their midseason bye week, dropping heartbreakers to both Wake Forest and Virginia
It goes without saying that things haven't been perfect for Louisville in the first half of year three under head coach Scott Satterfield. But if the Cardinals are going to rebound in the second half and get back on the right track, here are the three keys to doing so:
Abandon 'Play Not to Lose' Approach
Over the last few games since the start of ACC play, there have been two separate Louisville teams take the field. There's the one that comes out firing on all cylinders for the first half, putting up points with consistency while simultaneously holding opponents well below their offensive averages.
Then, there's the one that can't seem to get anything going in the game's waning moments or in crucial situations. Florida State nearly came back from a 24-point deficit, Wake Forest had a 17-point swing halfway through the game, and Virginia mounted an incredible 17-point fourth quarter comeback.
A lot of factors play into these droughts for Louisville: mental mistakes, execution, and in the case of Wake Forest - officiating. But in every one of those games, there was a consistant theme from the coaching staff: they were playing not to lose instead of to win.
On offense, head coach (and play caller) Scott Satterfield has overwhelmingly called the run over the pass in the second half of games. In the second halves of the past three games against Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia, there have been 54 run plays compared to 35 passing plays. Louisville is 1-2 in those games, and is potentially a Kei'Trel Clark interception away from being 0-3.
In those games, the offense has opted to run out the clock way too early, and it is coming back to bite them. Even against Virginia, when running the ball was working in the third quarter, the Cavaliers made adjustments in the fourth quarter, while the Louisville offensive approach hadn't changed.
On defense, they are doing the same. Late in the game, more often than not, defensive coordinator Bryan Brown has shifted to a pseudo-prevent defense and sent just three-down linemen after the quarterback in an attempt to take away chunk plays.
It's a tired football cliche, but there is some truth to it: the prevent prevents you from winning. Couple that with the fact that Louisville's secondary has struggled this year, and the defensive line still has issues imposing their will, and it's almost like the defense is asking the other team to score.
If Louisville is going to race out to a big lead - or even a decent on - they need to throw this conservative mindset out the window. Playing in an attempt to run out the clock simply is not working, and they need to adopt more of a killer 'play to win' mindset to ensure victory does not slip away from them
Remove Player Complacency
The coaching staff aren't the only ones who have let their collective and proverbial feet off the gas late in games.
Not only have the coaches shifted into 'play not to lose' mode way too early, but the players themselves have admitted some semblance of complacency as of late.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham admitted that the players laid back when they raced out to a big lead against Florida State, then wide receiver Justin Marshall said the same after the Virginia game when they had established a sizable lead heading into the fourth quarter.
“A little bit of complacency, in my opinion was the tipping point," Marshall said. "College football is not over until the clock hits zero. Every play counts, every down counts. We should have executed a lot better. We could have put ourselves in better position, I can say that."
It's bad enough that the coaching staff isn't playing a complete game, but the players are buying into this notion as well. If Louisville is going to get back to their winning ways, both the players and the coaches need to be on the same page, and put their best foot forward for all four quarters.
Let Malik Cunningham Cook
This sort of ties into the first point about playing not to lose, but with an added emphasis on the team's clear MVP in critical situations.
Cunningham is playing the best football of his career. At the halfway point of the season, the Montgomery, Ala. native is on pace to accumulate nearly 4,000 yards of total offense. In fact, he currently ranks 14th in the nation in total offense per game at 320.5 yards.
His passer efficiency might not be what it was in 2019, but his efforts through the air are still pretty damn good. He is averaging a career-best 262.8 yards on 64.0 percent passing, and has eight touchdowns to just two interceptions.
What makes him so dynamic this season has been his added prowess as a runner. He already has 347 yards on the ground, and the second-most rushing touchdowns in FBS with 10.
But because of the 'play not to lose' mindset that Satterfield has adopted as a play caller this season, the Cardinals are taking the ball out of Cunningham's hands. They are opting to kick field goals or punts in situations where they could go for it on fourth down and conceivably convert - and it's costing them.
Among all teams in the Power Five, Louisville currently has the fourth-most win percentage lost per game by kicking in clear "go" situations. There is tangible evidence that not letting Cunningham makes plays - whether it's with his arms or legs - is serving as a detriment to Louisville.
That's not saying that the Cardinals should go for it on every fourth down, but there needs to be more situational awareness regarding it. The first play that comes to mind was the final field goal made against Virginia on 4th and 5 to go up six, when the defense had just surrendered 14 unanswered fourth quarter points.
Hindsight is 20/20, but in instances like that where you take the ball out of your MVP's hands in pressure situations, it only serves to hurt rather than help.
(Photo of Jordan Watkins: Reinhold Matay - USA TODAY Sports)
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