Louisville Baseball 2023 Season Preview
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The calendar is about to flip into the month of February, and that means only one thing: a new season of college baseball is just around the corner.
The Louisville baseball program was able to return to form after missing the 2021 NCAA Tournament, bouncing back in 2022 to make an appearance in the College Station Super Regional against Texas A&M. Heading into 2023, the Cardinals are hoping to make another deep postseason run, one that hopefully ends in the College World Series in Omaha, Neb.
Head coach Dan McDonnell will be entering his 17th season with the program, sporting an overall record of 688-285-1. The Cardinals also return pitching coach Roger Williams, who has been with McDonnell at 3rd & Central since day one, as well as hitting coach Eric Snider and assistant coach Adam Vrable, both of whom are entering their ninth seasons at Louisville.
The first pitch of the 2023 season is set for Friday, Feb. 17 at 3:00 p.m. against Bucknell as part of a three-game weekend series at Jim Patterson Stadium.
Offseason Primer
Louisville is no stranger to losing talent year in and year out due to the amount of high level ball players they produce on a regular basis, and this offseason was no exception.
The Cardinals wound up losing five players to the 2022 MLB Draft. Catcher Dalton Rushing was taken in the second round, right-handed pitcher Jared Poland and left-hander Michael Prosecky were both taken in the sixth round, third baseman Ben Metzinger was right behind them in the seventh round, and centerfielder Levi Usher was drafted in the 10th round.
These were just players that the Cardinals lost to draft. Both left-handed pitcher Carter Lohman and left fielder Cam Masterman signed undrafted free agent deal, plus starting first baseman/designated hitter Ben Bianco graduated.
Here's another way to frame it: five of Louisville's regular starters in the field, as well as two of their top five pitchers in terms of ERA, departed the program in one form or another.
Fortunately, Louisville isn't being left out high and dry in terms of their roster depth. Even with losing a few top-tier high school prospects to the MLB Draft, the Cardinals were still able to secure the No. 7 class in the 2022 cycle according to Perfect Game. Bringing in 16 total recruits, this includes five top 250 prospects and nine in the top 500.
With the talent still remaining on the roster, combined with yet another high level recruiting class in tow, Louisville has been generating the preseason hype that they have been accustomed to under McDonnell. As of this writing, the Cardinals sport a preseason ranking as high as No. 5, and three of the four major preseason polls released up to this point have tabbed Louisville as a top-ten squad.
As far as the schedule goes, it's a hefty one, as it includes 21 games against 2022 NCAA Tournament teams and 34 games at Jim Patterson Stadium. In the non-conference portion, Louisville is taking part in the Shriners Children's College Classic, where they will play Texas A&M, TCU and Michigan at Minute Maid Park in Houston. They also will host Kentucky and Vanderbilt. In ACC play, the Cardinals host Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State.
Now that we're caught up, time to get into the actual team.
Position Players
Sure, Louisville lost some valuable pieces in the field. But with that being said, they do retain some key pieces and have a fair amount of depth at a handful of spots.
The Cardinals might be returning just four qualified hitters (2 PA/G, 75 percent of games played) for the 2023 season, but all of them are already proven commodities with a bat in their hands. Their top returner of this bunch is Jack Payton (.350, 4 HR, 54 RBI, 23 2B), who after splitting time with Rushing behind the backstop in 2022, will be the every-day catcher in 2023. Leading the Cardinals in batting average and doubles, he has a good balance of contact and power, and has even earned preseason Second-Team All-American recognition by Perfect Game.
First base will have a new face after Ben Bianco exhausted his eligibility, but his likely replacement has a lot of tools in his tool box. Ryan McCoy comes over from the JUCO ranks, and he did a little bit of everything during his final season at Wabash Valley. Not only did he hit an astounding .435 and 17 home runs, but that also came with 17 stolen bases - as a first baseman. Look for him to be the regular starter, but expect Will Cook to get some run here as well. Cook was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, but missed his entire true freshman season last year due to injury, and looked impressive this past fall.
The middle of the infield might be the strongest area of the field for Louisville in 2023, and that's mainly due to the fact that the Cards bring back their both starters here. Shortstop Christian Knapczyk (.346 BA, .480 OBP, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 17 SB) is an on-base machine at the top of the order with incredible command of the strike zone, and second baseman Logan Beard (.310, 4 HR, 53 RBI) helped anchor a surprisingly strong back end of the batting order. The main concern with this duo is that - while both have flashed the leather - they did combine for 19 errors in 2022, mainly because of wide throws to first.
Fortunately, Louisville's depth here can allow for some shuffling in the infield should defensive miscues remain an issue. While Knapczyk missed time with an injury late last season, Noah Smith (.318, 4 RBI) saw some time at shortstop while Brandon Anderson (.316, 5 RBI) played a few games at third base when Metzinger briefly slid over to shortstop. Both players not only held their own in the batter's box, but have showed this offseason that they can play multiple positions in the infield, giving McDonnell that much more lineup flexibility. Even true freshman Gavin Kilen, a middle infielder who ranks as Perfect Game's No. 55 overall prospect in the Class of 2022, is a candidate to see lots of early playing time thanks primarily to his defensive upside.
The hot corner will have a new face here as well with Metzinger moving on. As previously mentioned, Anderson is a day one starting candidate here, but another option for the Opening Day starter at third base is true freshman Patrick Forbes. He won Kentucky Mr. Baseball in 2022 after hitting for .563, 15 home runs and 57 RBI at Bowling Green HS, and didn't skip a beat in the fall with Louisville during the Pizza Bowl. Oh, and the two-way player a legitimate option to be the closer. He's looked that impressive since he got to campus. Beard is also an option at third base as well due to his up-and-down tendencies defensively in the middle of the infield.
The outfield is probably the area of the field that is most thin on overall experience after losing both Masterman and Usher to the big leagues, but there is at least one veteran presence. Right fielder Isaac Humphrey (.328, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 11 SB) brings a solid mix of contact, speed and some power to the table, and can play center fielder if really need be. Humphrey just has to hone in defensively, as he was prone to the occasional error last season with five of them.
The other two spot in the outfield will likely go to Tyeler Hawkins (.313, 5 RBI) at center and Eddie King Jr. at left. While both players are relatively inexperienced, there is potential for a breakout in 2023 from either one. Both players had exceptional falls, especially in Louisville's 18-6 fall exhibition win vs. Purdue where Hawkins homered twice and King was a triple shy of the cycle. King likely has more breakout potential, as he hit .310 with 15 home runs, 49 RBIs and 31 stolen bases in the Prospect League last summer to be named the league's Player of the Year, all while coming off of an Achilles injury that forced him to miss his true freshman campaign in 2022.
Outfield isn't as deep as the infield is, but there are some capable players behind the projected starters. Haven Mangrum comes over from the JUCO ranks after batting .311 with 12 RBI and 11 stolen bases last season at Columbia State (Tenn.), and J.T. Benson (.224, 1 HR, 10 RBI) is working his way back from injury. A long-term option in the outfield is true freshman Korbyn Dickerson, who opted to stay with Louisville after being selected by the Twins with the No. 594 pick of the 2022 MLB Draft. He bat .481 with 11 homers and 57 RBI during his senior season at Trinity.
One potential weakness of this crop of position players is that, following the departure of Louisville's top five home runs hitters from 2022, this doesn't seem to be a lineup that is expected to be brimming with power like the Cardinals were last year, outside of maybe one or two players. However, it's one that is still an elite caliber offense based on their ability to put the ball in play and base running aggression alone.
Pitching Staff
Louisville didn't lose as much pitching production as they did amongst their hitting counterparts, but the pitching staff is where a lot of the questions on this team stem from. Last season, the Cardinals struggled to find more than two consistent starters in their weekend rotation. With Jared Poland moving on to the Major Leagues, determining the starters becomes a little bit more of an arduous task for McDonnell.
The two players who are most likely to be fighting for the right to be the Friday night starter are left-handers Tate Kuehner (3.57 ERA, 70.2 IP, 70 K, 32 BB) and Riley Phillips (4.34 ERA, 58.0 IP, 69 K, 17 BB). Kuehner began the 2022 season as a starting pitcher, was reverted to the bullpen after a string of rough starts, but could is likely going back to being a starter following a good showing in the fall. Phillips was a starter in all but two games, and saved some of his best stuff for the postseason.
Right-hander Ryan Hawks (4.96 ERA, 49.0 IP, 65 K, 16 BB) and JUCO transfer left-hander Greg Farone are the next two pitchers who are the mostly likely to earn a starter's nod. Hawks has made leaps in his overall progress this fall, and is working toward perhaps a weekend starting role after making the most appearances for Louisville last season with 27. Farone was a key piece in helping Herkimer (N.Y.) win a NJCAA DIII national title, striking out an absurd 139 batters over 60.0 innings pitched while posting a 1.65 ERA.
A couple other pitchers who have a shot to become a starter are right-hander Carson Liggitt (4.68 ERA, 25.0 IP, 21 K, 15 BB) and left-hander Garrett Schmeltz (3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 40 K, 14 BB). Both made postseason starts in last season's Louisville Regional, with each earning victories to help play a role in the Cardinals getting out of the loser's bracket.
Now let's take a look at the bullpen. Louisville's go-to reliever will likely be left-hander Evan Webster (4.40 ERA, 30.2 IP, 31 K, 6 BB), who made the second-most appearances on the team last season with 21.
Beyond him, it's a handful of guys that are looking to bounce back from either injury, underperformance or a rough freshman year. Look for right-handers Kaleb Corbett (8.10 ERA, 23.1 IP, 24 K, 10 BB), Ben Wiegman (5.93 ERA, 13.2 IP, 9 K, 11 BB) and Alex Galvan (6.35 ERA, 17.0 IP, 20 K, 6 BB) as the main crop of relievers for Louisville behind Webster. Also, don't be surprised to see Forbes or right-hander Tucker Biven get their chances to pitch as true freshmen.
Bottom Line
In case you haven't already figured it out, this will be a team that will be primarily carried by their production at the plate. While they likely won't have the pure power that last season's team did, their offense should be one of the strongest in the ACC, and it will single-handedly win them a lot of games.
The Cardinals' ceiling will likely be determined by how their pitching staff performs, as it is undoubtedly the biggest question mark on the team. The starting rotation only has one proven permanent starter, and the bullpen has a lot of players who are hoping to make a bounce back in 2023. Pitching will likely be the difference between Louisville making a run at the College World Series, or a potential Regional round exit.
But make no mistake, this is very much one of the better teams in the ACC, and a squad very deserving of multiple top-15 preseason rankings. Reaching Omaha is very attainable for this team, but it all has to come together in terms of hitting, pitching and defense for that to happen. The first part is no problem, the latter two are to be determined.
Projected Starters
Position Players:
- Christian Knapczyk (SS)
- Eddie King Jr. (LF)
- Jack Payton (C)
- Ryan McCoy (1B)
- Logan Beard (2B)
- Isaac Humphrey (RF)
- Tyeler Hawkins (CF)
- Will Cook (DH)
- Patrick Forbes (3B)
Pitching Rotation:
- LHP Tate Kuehner
- LHP Riley Phillips
- RHP Ryan Hawks
- LHP Greg Farone
(Photo of Logan Beard: Jared Anderson - State of Louisville)
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