Michael Kirian 2021 MLB Draft Profile

(Photo of Michael Kirian: Sam Upshaw Jr. - Courier Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC)

Prospect: Michael Kirian
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Louisville
Year: Fourth-Year Junior
Bat/Throws: R/L
Height, Weight: 6-6, 260

Background

Born Feb. 1, 1999 (age 22). Was a dual-sport athlete at New Riegel (Oh.) High School, lettering for four years in baseball and three in basketball. As a senior, he posted an 8-0 record with a 0.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts, and was named Ohio's Gatorade Player of the Year. He was ranked as the No. 155 player in the Class of 2017 by Perfect Game, but was not drafted out of high school.

His freshman year had a good start, surrendering just two earned runs over the first seven appearances and 7.2 innings (2.35 ERA) of his collegiate career. However, he would finish with year with an ERA of 12.71 after giving up 14 earned runs over his final eight appearances and 3.2 innings of the 2018 season.

In 2019, he had his breakout year. Making a team-high 26 appearances, all in a bullpen role, he had a team-low 1.69 ERA with 42 strikeouts to only eight walks in 32.0 innings of work. He finished with a 3-1 record, including five saves. In the postseason, he surrendered just one earned run over six appearances and 6.0 innings, including a save in the College World Series vs. Auburn.

Before the 2020 season came to a premature halt, Kirian looked like one of the best closers in the nation. He made six appearances, earning a save each time, while not allowing a single earned run in 6.1 innings of work. He struck out 11 batters while only giving up two walks and a hit.

Thanks to the departures of first round draft picks Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller, Kirian was elevated to the starting rotation for Louisville. He seemed comfortable in his new role, posting an ERA of 2.91 over his first nine appearances, and striking out 54 batters over 46.1 innings.

But after Louisville's series vs Pitt was cancelled in mid-April, things fell apart for Kirian. In his next three starts afterwards, he gave up 21 earned runs in 15.1 innings, eventually getting relegated back to the bullpen. He allowed just one earned run over his final four appearances and 6.2 innings, all out of the pen, bringing his season ERA to 4.80.

Scouting Report

Top 500 Prospect Rankings:

MLB.com: N/A
Baseball America: No. 274

Strengths

His go-to pitch, unsurprisingly for a 6-6, 260 lefty who has mainly been a reliever in college, is his fastball. It sits mainly in the 91-93mph range, but has been known to touch 95-96mph, and has solid tail to it.
His other primary pitch is his curveball, one that sits around 79-82mph. He locates this pitch particularly well, especially on the outside part of the plate.
Even in a down 2021 for him, he still struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, where he was exclusively a reliever, that number was 12.4.

Weaknesses

After experimenting as a starter, he is likely best suited as a reliever going forward. He fell into a tremendous slump in April, one which seems to be corrected after moving back to the bullpen.
During his late season slump, he was severely snakebitten by the home run ball, giving up eight in a three-game stretch. He allowed 11 long balls by season's end.
Was just okay at preventing batters from getting on base in 2021. Opponent's batting average was .257, and also allowed 3.6 walks per nine innings.

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