Tiger Predictions: LSU Rebounds With Bounce Back Win at No. 16 Kentucky
At this stage in the 2021 season for LSU, there's not much that can be said or written that gives much confidence that this weekend's outcome will result in a win.
The Tigers have reached a low point and the only way to dig themeselves out is by showing improvement on the field. There's reason for optimism this week as one of the main issues that LSU faced against Auburn is very correctable and should lead to more offensive rhythm.
Here's how we think Saturday night's game in Lexington will play out.
Score Prediction: LSU 28, Kentucky 24
What we know about LSU's defense at this point is that it has the potential to make game altering plays. The defense will have to keep the Tigers in most games moving forward and Kentucky's offense has been prone to mistakes this season.
The Wildcats have a turnover margin of -9 in 2021, meaning they've turned the ball over way more than they've been able to create turnovers this season. LSU's defense has created three interceptions, forced three fumbles, 19 sacks and 43 tackles for a loss. Getting that kind of pressure on Kentucky quarterback Will Levis will be key as he's thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns in 2021.
Up front this defensive line has done a great job in slowing down the opposing teams running attack since the week one effort against UCLA. Outside of the 210 yards allowed against the Bruins, the Tigers have allowed 385 yards in four games on 130 carries, an average of less than three yards per carry.
Running back Chris Rodriguez has rushed for a conference leading 612 yards and will be the primary goal of this defense and will force Levis to beat the secondary with his arm. LSU has done a great job in wrapping up opposing offensive weapons and the play of Cordale Flott, Jay Ward, Dwight McGlothern and Elias Ricks has really done wonders for this group's improvement, particularly without the services of Derek Stingley Jr.
As for the LSU offense, it faces a Kentucky defense that is top 30 against the run and the pass through five weeks. It hasn't created a ton of turnovers but is a group that doesn't make a ton of mistakes. Though LSU hasn't been all that devoted to the run, Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said this week he expects that to change in his defense's gameplan.
"That's a very prideful program rooted in running the football," White said. "Maybe their stats haven't shown it up to this far but I have an inkling that they're going to run the football."
Orgeron himself has said this week the Tigers must devote themselves to getting the run game going, starting with freshmen Corey Kiner and Armoni Goodwin who should be a bigger part of the offensive gameplan this weekend. Of course the other component this offense will need to improve is the communication in playcalling.
Last weekend the Kentucky crowd and the sloppiness of the Florida offense led to 15 penalties and eight false starts in the game. There have been times where LSU's tempo has showed signs of an offense really improving but that was all shattered with the performance against Auburn.
Multiple times the Tigers' offense was forced into timeouts and near delay of games because of changes to the protections and playcalling as the clock wound down. Simply calling a play and sticking to it could do wonders for this group that will have to heavily rely on Max Johnson and the passing attack. Until LSU's offense can become multi-faceted by gaining some semblance of a run game, this group will continue to struggle.
It's been said for five weeks and won't be believed until seen on the field.
"We need to be more committed to the run, we're doing some different things this week hopefully that can help us," Orgeron said. "It's a combination of commitment to the run, the style of run we're doing and I think that has more to do with it than anything."
There's a pathway to a win here for the purple and gold and it all starts with better tempo on offense and shutting down the run on defense. If LSU can accomplish both, there's room for optimism this weekend.
