Where Football Polls and Metrics Have Maryland Placed in Week 12

Terrapins’ odds of becoming bowl eligible take major drop after losing to Rutgers

Maryland wide receiver Octavian Smith Jr. is tackled by Rutgers linebacker Dariel Djabome (8) and defensive lineman Cam Rice. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Maryland lost at Rutgers on Saturday, 35-20, damaging the Terps’ chances for bowl eligibility.

Maryland’s odds for winning six games and becoming bowl eligible took a hit in ESPN’s Football Power Index odds. The Terps’ odds of winning six games is 16.8, a big drop from last week’s odds of 42.5.

The Terps (4-5, 1-5 Big Ten) need to win two of their remaining three games for a sixth win and to become bowl eligible. After starting the season 4-0, Maryland has lost five consecutive Big Ten games.

Maryland has one home game remaining, one road game and a neutral-site game that will feel very much like an away game.

The remainder of the Terps’ schedule:

* Nov. 15: At Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
* Nov. 22: Michigan (7-2, 5-1)
* Nov. 29: Michigan State (3-6, 0-6) at Ford Field, Detroit

Each week, we’ll take a look at where seven national polls and rankings place Maryland’s football team. Maryland ranks 68.2 in an average of the polls and rankings, a sharp decrease from last week’s average of 58.8.

The Terps’ worst ranking this week is 75 in the CBS Sports 136 rankings. Maryland’s best ranking is 61 in the ESPN SP+. Last week, Maryland’s worst ranking was 67 in the Athletic. Its best ranking last week was 51 in the ESPN SP+.

The polls and rankings we monitor are:

* Associated Press
* The Athletic
* CBS Sports
* US LBM Coaches Poll
* ESPN’s Football Power Index
* ESPN’s SP+ rankings
* Massey Ratings

Associated Press Top 25

Maryland still has not cracked the AP Top 25 Poll, the gold standard of college football polling.

The Athletic

Maryland dropped five spots, going to 73 from 67 in The Athletic’s 136 rankings. In The Athletic’s preseason rankings, Maryland was 75th.

CBS Sports 136 Rankings

Maryland dropped 18 spots to 75 from 57.

US LBM Coaches Poll

The Terps did not receive any votes in this poll.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)

The Terps dropped five spots to 65 from 60. Of six FPI odds, their odds decreased in two categories and remained the same in the other four categories.

Here are the FPI odds for Maryland (with last week’s odds in parentheses):

* 16.8 percent chance of winning six games; six wins would be bowl eligibility (42.5 percent last week)
* 4.8 projected wins to 7.2 projected losses (5.5 projected wins and 6.6 projected losses last week)
* 0.0 percent chance of winning the Big Ten (same as last week)
* 0.0 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff (same as last week)
* 0.0 percent chance of making the national championship game (same as last week)
* 0.0 percent chance of winning the national championship (same as last week)

ESPN’s SP+ rankings

The Terps dropped 10 spots, going to 61 from 51.

As ESPN writer Bill Connelly says about his SP+ ratings: “It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency … SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Massey Ratings

Massey Ratings are a compilation of 40 different college football rankings. In the consensus of the 40 rankings, the Terps ranked 67. Last week they were 59.

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