Best Round 1 NCAA Tournament Matchups and Predictions

Article photo of Penn State's Jalen Pickett being defended by Indiana's Jalen Hood-Schifino; photo credit to Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Every NCAA Tournament has unique games. Those contests that people struggle to predict on their own bracket pools.

The 2023 NCAA Tournament will be no exception. In fact, it’s full of tough games to pick a winner. Here are four games broken down by the key player versus player matchup that should decide close games and change how each one of the regions play out.

Here are four games, one in each region, that will go down to the final moments.

South

#8 Maryland (21-12) versus #9 West Virginia (19-14) could be as good a game as there will be in the first round. From KenPom rankings, Maryland reached No. 22 for adjusted efficiency (+18.37), while West Virginia came in at No. 17 (+19.14).

These two teams played in the always difficult Big 12 Conference, having to face Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas, Iowa State, etc. They have been battle tested.

This game could come down to how well Maryland defends West Virginia guard Erik Stevenson. When he gets going, the Mountaineers have been difficult to beat.

From a stretch that began at Kansas (Feb. 25), Stevenson scored 23 points in a 2-point loss in Lawrence. Then, at Iowa State (Feb. 27), he scored 23 again and West Virginia won 72-69. Finally, Stevenson delivered 27 points against Kansas State (March 4) that propelled the Mountaineers to a 89-81 victory over the Wildcats.

Stevenson hit 38.1% of his shots behind the 3-point arc this season. That’s one key. Do not discount him putting the basketball on the deck and driving to the hoop, however. He knocked down 74/93 free throws (79.6%), so Stevenson driving to the hoop usually works out well for West Virginia when he decides to pump fake a defender and drive.

The player that will be guarding the 6-foot-4 Stevenson, at least part of the time, will be Maryland’s Hakim Hart, all 6-foot-8 of him.

That’s a difficult matchup for Stevenson to win by himself. His teammates will need to set good screens, as well as find him off of offensive rebounds for kickout 3-point shots that often leave jump shooters wide open.

Prediction

Maryland does just enough to slow down Stevenson, as Terrapins guard Jahmir Young drills four free throws in the final minute to give the Terps a 81-77 win over the Mountaineers.

Midwest

#7 Texas A&M goes against #10 Penn State. For their respective conference tournaments, the Aggies were the SEC Tournament runner up, and Penn State was the Big 10 runner up.

KenPom has Texas A&M at No. 25 (+18.28), and Penn State was No. 39 (+15.04). If you like 3-point bombs, this game will be to your liking.

Penn State finished 9th in the country by knocking down 38.5% of its 3-point shots, as a team. For the season, PSU hit 364 shots from behind the arc. Defensively, A&M allowed 32.3% of 3-point shots to be made, finishing 82nd in the country.

The Nittany Lions obviously lived and died by the triple, and the Aggies must at least slow down Penn State’s deadly outside shooting. The individual matchup that this comes down to will be A&M’s team defense versus PSU, especially helping to defend Jalen Pickett.

As we said earlier, Seth Lundy and @PennStateMBB just don't quit. 😱#B1GMBBT pic.twitter.com/fhJNKqjtdX
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 12, 2023

No one player should be assigned to him; the Aggies must switch up how it defends the Big 10 first-team selection. Man defense, yes. The Aggies also need to mix it up in some way, such as trapping him on ball screens, or even playing an unusual defense like a box-and-1.

The fifth-year senior guard has been inconsistent of late, but he can get going. Just ask Indiana, a team that Pickett destroyed for 28 points during the Big 10 Tournament on Saturday, going for 28 points. There’s an unusual part to his stat line, too.

Pickett went just 1-3 from behind the arc against the Hoosiers. Instead of launching from deep, as IU attempted to run him off the 3-point line, Pickett went to the hoop. He ended up hitting 9-10 from the free throw line, as well as connecting on shots in and near the lane.

Make no mistake, however, he can drill shots from downtown. Pickett also went 4-9 from behind the arc to knock off Northwestern during the Big 10 Tournament, as Pickett scored 15 points. The Wildcats might have been the best defensive team in the Big 10.

As for the likely one-on-one matchup, the Aggies will counter the 6-foot-4 and 210-pound Pickett with Dexter Dennis, who’s a 6-foot-5 and 210-pound athlete that’s capable of chasing his counterpart all around the court.

Of note, the other two starting Aggie guards are smaller than Pickett. If the Aggies switch on all ball screens, or even just a few, Pickett could decide to play physical and go to the hoop much like he did against Indiana.

Prediction

The Aggies overall athleticism and tenacity to defend Pickett wins out despite the talented guard scoring 18 points. Texas A&M survives a game that goes down to the final possession, winning 77-75.

East

#5 Duke will play against #12 Oral Roberts in a game of experience versus youth.

KenPom has the Blue Devils as the No. 21 team (+18.49), while the Golden Eagles were placed at No. 56 (+13.25).

There should be two interesting matchups in this game, actually. One, how will Duke’s big man, 7-foot-1 Dereck Lively II, handle the 7-foot-5 presence of Oral Roberts 7-foot-5 Connor Vanover?

Lively has been accustomed to being the biggest man on the court, but Vanover is actually taller, more experienced as a senior compared to Lively being a freshman, and he’s capable by having averaged 12.9 points and 7.2 rebounds.

While Vanover does not have to dominate Lively, if he can keep the Duke center from swatting shots from driving Oral Roberts players like talented guard Max Abmas because he does not want to leave Vanover alone, that could change the game.

Speaking of Abmas, he’s the other player to watch here. He’s been a dominant scorer throughout his college career. He’s averaged over 22 points in each of his sophomore, junior and senior campaigns, and does so by scoring in a variety of ways.

Abmas hit three 3-point shots versus North Dakota State in the Summit League championship game, which Oral Roberts rolled 92-58.

He also knocked down 117-310 of his 3-point shots for the season, which was good for 37.7%. When in doubt, Abmas will launch from deep.

Will Duke’s starting lineup make the proper adjustments off ball screens and during broken plays – such as fast breaks and offensive rebounds – to keep Abmas from scorching them for over 20 points?

The player, or players, that guard the talented senior guard will likely be switched off. It’s not like Duke lacks for talent, with junior point guard Jeremy Roach, who’s 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, being a primary defender now that he’s healthy and playing well, as evidenced by the following video:

MARCH JEREMY ROACH. ONIONS pic.twitter.com/29lNtwkL3n
— Zion O. (@DukeNBA) March 11, 2023

He’s also a savvy player, so that’s a great head-to-head contest. Roach is not the only Duke player that will get a chance to guard Abmas.

Duke’s Tyrese Proctor, at 6-foot-5 and 175 pounds, will also see time guarding Abmas at some point, and it will be interesting to see if the freshman from Australia can hold off from jumping at the pump fakes Abmas will undoubtedly utilize against him. His length will be an advantage, but that experience factor could change the game.

To that point, it’s paramount that Roach stays out of foul trouble so that the Blue Devils can keep fresh bodies on Abmas all game long.

Abmas is only 6-foot and 175 pounds, so Roach and the other Duke guards will probably attempt to crowd him near and above the 3-point line. The athletic senior guard will probably be forced to drive more than he’s accustomed to, and that’s where Lively – as well as 7-foot Kyle Filipowski – will be waiting in the lane.

Can Abmas hit those tough mid-range floaters to keep his shot from being blocked? He might have to for Oral Roberts to win.

Prediction

Duke’s size wins out in an outstanding game. Duke moves to the second round of the NCAA Tournament with an 85-80 victory over Oral Roberts, with Filipowski scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds.

West

#8 Arkansas has drawn #9 seed Illinois. The Razorbacks have struggled down the stretch, going 4-6 during their last 10 games. Illinois, meanwhile, has been one of the most competitive teams in the Big 10 and beat Midwest #2 seed Texas earlier this season. Even so, Illinois was bounced from the Big 10 Tournament by Penn State in an upset.

KenPom has ranked Arkansas as the No. 20 (+18.63) team, while Illinois was placed at No. 33 (+16.48).

With Illinois senior guard Terrence Shannon, Jr. averaging 17.1 points and 4.7 rebounds, he’s one part of an interesting offensive attack for the Illini. He’s 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, so Shannon can drive and score over bigs, as well as get his jumper off over smaller guards.

The All-Big 10 selection by the league coaches has offensive help with fellow Illinois player Matthew Mayer. The 6-foot-9 and 225-pound senior scored 12.8 points per game, as well as averaged 5.5 rebounds.

He’s also been a solid 3-point shooter, hitting 33.8% of his attempts.

The duo are the two most dominant offensive players for Illinois – capable of scoring inside or out – so how will Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman and his staff attempt to play the Illini?

The NCAA Tournament has generally been decided by guard play, so look for the Razorbacks to attempt to take away Shannon first. All three of the starting Arkansas guards line up at 6-foot-4 or taller, with freshman Anthony Black being 6-foot-7 and 195 pounds.

That length will help the Razorbacks, but much of it is also inexperienced. While Shannon is a senior, Black and fellow freshman guard Nick Smith, Jr. will be asked to help defend one of the Big 10’s best scorers.

Look for Shannon to use a wide variety of moves off the dribble to get into the lane and pass to Illini big men for close looks at the rim, as well as score himself.

He’s knocked down 156-197 of his free throws (79.2%), so Shannon proved he knows how to get to the rim himself, too. That’s where the play of this game will begin, in the lane.

Prediction

Down to the wire, look for Shannon to drive into the paint and then pass the basketball back out to the perimeter to an open Mayer for a game-winning 3-point bucket, giving Illinois a 77-75 victory.

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