The Case For And Against Isaiah Livers Returning To Michigan
On March 30, Michigan junior forward Isaiah Livers declared for the 2020 NBA Draft but without signing an agent, he can go through the draft process and still return to U-M for his senior season, as long as he withdraws his name by June 15.
Livers spoke at length with reporters after the announcement to offer what factors will influence his decision, including how COVID-19 (the coronavirus) could play a role and how the potential of next year's Michigan team could also spark a desire to return for the 2020-21 campaign.
As my colleague at "Inside the Huddle with Michal Spath" Zach Shaw pointed out on Twitter, there's a good reason Livers might stay in the draft - largely that he's getting up there in age, with just nine players aged 22 or older going in the first round over the last three NBA Drafts; Livers turns 22 this summer.
As he considers his future, I make the case for why he should and should not go pro, understanding that it is, of course, ultimately, his decision and whatever he decides, Livers should receive support from the Michigan community.
Reasons To Go Pro
• In addition to his age, Livers has been injury-prone, missing nine games in 2020 through a myriad of injuries and two in 2019. One might think that's a reason to return, to show he can be healthy for a full season, but NBA teams will check out his full medical record and if they are convinced there are no underlying factors, they will sign off on a clean bill of health.
For Livers, though, every injury threatens to impact his career prospects further, and if he does fall victim to another ailment, he'd rather do so getting paid than raising greater concerns among scouts that he is physically fragile.
• A better reason is that he's ready, and that he would be a Top 45 Draft pick. According to data from Vice Sports, better than 90% of second-rounders between picks 31-45 over the last six years received a guaranteed contract for at least one season, paying the NBA minimum of $815,000. First-rounders are guaranteed three-year deals but as long as he goes in the first half of the second round, he has a solid chance to make some good NBA coin.
Livers has an NBA body and NBA skills. He can shoot the three, he's versatile enough to cover 3's and 4's, he can create a shot for himself (though he would need to improve his ball-handling), he gives great effort and he has high-end athleticism. He's more polished than former Wolverine DJ Wilson, who worked his way into the middle of the first round in 2017.
Derrick Walton has made more than $1.5 million in the NBA without ever sticking with one team, but that's not the NBA career Livers wants.
The question is whether he could be a Tim Hardaway Jr., type, as a 12-16 points-per-game scorer consistently or if his ball-handling limitations place him in the Glenn Robinson III category.
Objectively, he's somewhere in the middle, but considering Robinson has made more than $10 million in seven NBA seasons, averaging just 17.5 minutes and 6.0 points per game, the opportunity for a lucrative NBA career is likely for Livers.
• Speaking of Robinson, the former Wolverine might have done himself a disservice when he returned for his sophomore season, showcasing to scouts more of his weaknesses than the upside he flashed during his rookie campaign.
With the exception of Mo Wagner, who returned for a junior season and rounded his game into more complete form, most of Michigan's most recent NBA selections left Ann Arbor without fulfilling their potential, offering the chance for pro teams to mold their games and experience the best they had to offer.
Livers might be an All-American as a senior, but there's not a strong reason from a developmental standpoint to return. He can perform well enough as a shooter and shot creator in team workouts to convince NBA teams his upside is worth gambling on, as Jordan Poole did (now thriving with Golden State after a late first-round selection) or Wilson did (going 17th overall).
• Livers also has to weigh whether his minutes will fall next year. With Franz Wagner expected back, and U-M expected to sign five-stars Isaiah Todd and Josh Christopher, there will be tremendous talent in Ann Arbor, with Wagner, Todd and Livers playing the 3, and Todd, Livers and Brandon Johns Jr., at the 4. Add in that Christopher could see time at the 3 also and Michigan's roster will be crowded.
That's not to say Livers is the odd-man out, but there are only 40 minutes in a game. Livers averaged 31.5 minutes per game in 2020. He could be hard-pressed to see the floor that much again next season.
Reasons To Stay Put
• Let's stick with that roster: if Livers and Wagner return to Michigan and the Wolverines land Todd and Christopher, along with the rest of the No. 4 recruiting class, and some portion of the upperclassmen stay put, it's arguably one of the five best rosters in college basketball next season.
Head coach Juwan Howard will have to manage that roster, melding it into a championship team that plays with selflessness, but if that can be done - and all indications are that egos are put aside under Howard - Michigan could compete for a national title. At the very least, the Maize and Blue should challenge for the Big Ten championship, and players like Livers, who grew up in-state and has always been a team-first guy, tend to crave that level of program success.
Livers just watched teammates Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske leave U-M as the two winningest players in program history. He could leave Ann Arbor with more hardware - Michigan has won two Big Ten tournament titles and has been to a Final Four over the last three seasons - than most. In fact, if the Wolverines won 24 games or more in 2021, Livers and classmate Eli Brooks would go down as the winningest players of all time.
• It's hard to believe Livers would not test well for NBA teams and would not elevate himself into a Top 40-45 pick, but there is incredible uncertainty as it relates to the NBA offseason and there are doubts the Draft will be held June 25. In fact, the New York Post, talking to league insiders, wrote earlier this week that the NBA is determined to finish the season, and that the postseason could extend into August/September, with the NBA Draft to follow that.
It doesn't appear the primary focus for NBA teams presently is to scout potential first- and second-round picks. NBA teams are not prepared to have prospects in for individual workouts (June might be the earliest this could happen). In other words, everything is getting pushed back, if a season and a Draft happens at all. In that world of uncertainty, it doesn't make much sense for a fringe first-rounder to "go pro" when it's possible he won't have clarity before the 2020-21 academic calendar begins again at Michigan.
