Michigan Bowl Projections After First Big Ten Win This Season Over Penn State

After dropping back-to-back games, the Michigan Wolverines football squad picked up its first conference win of 2026 this past weekend, taking down Penn State 21-18 at The Big House.

With the win, the Wolverines are now just two victories away from officially being bowl eligible this year.

Here is where experts project the Wolverines to play after the season concludes following the win over the Nittany Lions.

Chris Bracy celebrates. — Michigan safety Chris Bracy (7), left, celebrates an interception against Penn State during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN

Both Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN have agreed this week and last on their projections for the Maize and Blue. The duo released their predictions on Monday morning (Oct. 19) and both saw UofM in the same spot with different opponents.

Last week, Bongaura and Schlabach had the Wolverines in the Cactus Bowl, with both projecting Michigan to take on Cincinnati.

Schlabach kept that same prediction, while Bonagura has UofM facing off with UCF in the Cactus Bowl.

Andrew Marsh catches the ball. — Michigan wide receiver Andrew Marsh (3) makes a catch against Penn State cornerback Josiah Zayas (17) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Sports Illustrated

Another week and another new prediction for Michigan as Bryan Fischer of Sports Illustrated released his list of Bowl Game projections yesterday (Oct. 18).

A week ago, he had the Maize and Blue in the Music City Bowl (Dec. 30) against Kentucky. Now, Fischer has kept the destination the same, but now has UofM taking on Auburn.

The Tigers are coming off a huge win over top-ranked Georgia on the road this past weekend. Auburn won on a last-second field goal to take down the Bulldogs 27-24. With the win, the Tigers moved to 4-2 overall and 2-2 in conference action.

Looking ahead, the Tigers have LSU and Ole Miss on the horizon, which will be pretty telling if they are a College Football Playoff (CFP) contender or a team that will find its way into a lower-tier bowl game.

Byrum Brown throws the ball. — Oct 17, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown (17) throws downfield during the fourth quarter against Georgia at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

CBS Sports

Similar to ESPN, Brad Crawford of CBS Sports made the prediction that UofM will be in the Cactus Bowl against Cincinnati.

Crawford made note of freshman QB Tommy Carr taking over the offense in his projection.

“Tommy Carr led multiple touchdown drives in the second half of Michigan's victory over Penn State, delivering the final blow himself on a scoring scamper,” Crawford said. “He executed Jason Beck's offense with intention and moved ahead of the struggling Bryce Underwood in the process.”

Tommy Carr celebrates with Salesi Moa. — Michigan quarterback Tommy Carr (14) celebrates a touchdown against Penn State with wide receiver Salesi Moa (12) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Final Takeaways

As mentioned plenty of times, the Wolverines would have to win out for a CFP berth. That seems highly unlikely, but there could be a new sense of optimism in Ann Arbor with Carr potentially taking over the offense.

This Saturday, Michigan will have its biggest game of the season thus far, hosting Indiana at The Big House.

Josh Hoover throws the ball. — Indiana's Josh Hoover (10) passes for a touchdown to Turbo Richard (1) during the Indiana versus Ohio State football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

If the Wolverines can somehow pull that upset off, we could start seeing higher projections in future weeks for the Maize and Blue.

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