Way Too Early Michigan Football Prediction For 2020

At Washington - Sept. 5

The Huskies will be breaking in a new coach - Chris Petersen has retired citing mental and physical fatigue turning the reins over to first-time head coach Jimmy Lake - and a new quarterback after starter Jacob Eason declared for the NFL Draft.

Michigan has never been in better position to end its losing streak out West, last winning on a 1998 trip to Hawaii (since losing four bowl games and matchups at UCLA in 2000, Washington in 2001, Oregon in 2003 and Utah in 2015) while also ending its losing streak on the road against Top 25 teams at 20 games - U-M last beat a ranked foe in its stadium on Sept. 16, 2006 (Notre Dame).

Unless the Wolverines bring in a grad-transfer quarterback, however, their 2020 opening-day signal-caller will be making his starting debut. Couple that with at least three new offensive line starters, Jim Harbaugh's inability to have his team ready to play at the start of games in tough environments, and there is reason to be skeptical about U-M pulling off a win in Seattle. Result: Loss, 28-21.

Ball State - Sept. 12

For all the knocks on Harbaugh, he doesn't lose games like this. In fact, Michigan has outscored Group of 5 opponents 372-95 in nine victories since 2015. While rosters will change, this is a Ball State program that has finished no higher than 88th nationally in total defense and no better than 93rd in scoring defense under third-year head coach Mike Neu. Expect this one to go similar to a 49-3 win over fellow Mid-American Conference foe Western Michigan in 2018. Result: Win, 52-7.

Arkansas State - Sept. 19

The Red Wolves aren't Appalachian State good, but they're no pushover in the Sun Belt Conference, winning three division titles and two conference championships in six seasons under Blake Anderson. He's guided Arkansas State to a winning record in each year and a 47-30 record overall, including bowl victories over the FIU Panthers and Central Florida (back before UCF was a top-tier AAC program).

In eight matchups under Anderson against Power 5 conference opponents, the Red Wolves are 0-8 and have been outscored by an average of 30 points. Against ranked rivals that average margin of defeat is 47.3 points, and regardless of what happens at Washington, U-M is a Top-25 caliber team. Result: Win, 42-17.

Wisconsin - Sept. 26

The four matchups between Michigan and Wisconsin have split right down the middle for home and away, each visiting team losing twice in the five years Harbaugh and Paul Chryst have squared off. What should be alarming, and cause to second-guess whether history continues to repeat itself, is the success the Badgers have had running the football against U-M, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, including 6.3 YPC in a 2018 loss in Ann Arbor.

Wisconsin's rushing attack takes a huge hit with the anticipated departure of Jonathan Taylor to the NFL but whoever wins the No. 1 job (Nakia Watson is the early favorite), he'll be running behind another massive offensive line that physically manhandled Michigan's defensive line this past year. This is a toss-up game depending on the strength of U-M's defensive tackles next year and how far along the Wolverines' new QB is in his development. Result: Win, 24-20.

Penn State - Oct. 3

Michigan would have beat Penn State this year if not for a few Don Brown gaffes in coverage assignments. This was an unimpressive 11-win team, but don't we say that every season about the Nittany Lions under James Franklin, and he has three 11-win campaigns in his six seasons (three in the last four).

PSU will have a more experienced quarterback in Sean Clifford, seems to have found its No. 1 running back in Journey Brown and will return All-American linebacker Micah Parsons to lead a solid, if not great, defense that loses its top two pass rushers in Yetur Gross-Matos (expected to declare) and Shaka Toney.

U-M has dominated Penn State in two matchups at The Big House under Harbaugh, winning 49-10 in 2016 and 42-7 in 2018, and while the Wolverines won't likely have it that easy against the Nittany Lions, they should win. Result: Win, 35-24.

At Michigan State - Oct. 10

Michigan ran a similar gauntlet in 2018, beating Wisconsin, winning at Michigan State and returning to demolish Penn State in three consecutive games - but not three consecutive weeks, as U-M had a bye before the PSU contest.

Of these three matchups, MSU is expected to be the easiest foe. Spartan Stadium is still Spartan Stadium, but Harbaugh is 2-0 there, and this Michigan State team, barring an unlikely surprise, is headed backwards after a 7-6 campaign in 2019. Quarterback Brian Lewerke must be replaced (with no heir apparent) and the offense must be revamped after ranking 95th this season.

MSU's stout defense, which miraculously finished No. 20 nationally despite no help from its offense, loses its top five players and will be rebuilding. It would be foolish to expect a blowout in East Lansing, but a margin greater than the 21-7 win there in 2018 seems right. Result: Win, 31-10.

At Minnesota - Oct. 17

This is the trap game that should scare the hell out of Michigan fans. The Maize and Blue are still two weeks away from their first bye, physically beat up and emotionally drained after that three-game gamut, which likely includes at least one and maybe two night games. Speaking of which, the Golden Gophers would love to entertain the Wolverines under the lights, building the atmosphere into the type of crescendo that helped Minnesota knock off No. 13 Penn State at home Nov. 9.

It may be cliche and unoriginal to pick Michigan to lose because it's: A) a road game against a ranked opponent or B) a trap game after a brutal schedule ... but until U-M proves it's the kind of team that can string together an entire season that's exactly why to expect a defeat. Result: Loss, 38-35.

Purdue - Oct. 24

After taking two steps forward under Jeff Brohm (7-6 and 6-7 seasons in 2017-18), Purdue regressed to 4-8 in 2019, though the Boilermakers were one of the most injured teams in college football - No. 1 quarterback Elijah Sindelar missing seven games and dynamic WR Rondale Moore (the 2018 Big Ten Freshman of the Year) missing eight.

Moore will be back, Sindelar will not (he opted not to return for a sixth year of eligibility) but Purdue is expected to return 17 starters from this year's team. But the truth is, no one really has any idea what kind of team the Black and Gold will be. Moore's presence makes them dangerous, and if somehow U-M survives its four-game Goliath unscathed, this could be the trap game, but it's hard to see the Boilermakers coming into Ann Arbor and stealing a win. Result: Win 42-24.

Maryland - Nov. 7

Perhaps no team in 2019 had as big of a fall as Maryland. After winning their first two games, including an "upset" of Syracuse, by a combined score of 142-20, the Terps lost 9 of 10, by an average of 31 points per defeat. The Terrapins got crushed by Penn State at home (59-0), Purdue on the road (40-14), at Minnesota (52-10), home to Michigan (38-7), at Ohio State (73-14) and to Nebraska (54-7).

Maryland seems committed to a future with Tyler DeSue at quarterback after he appeared in four games as a freshman in 2019, and they're expected to bring back their top two rushes, top three wide receivers, and starting tight end. Plus, they signed the nation's No. 27 recruiting class, including five-star WR Rakim Jarrett.

The defense, though, was the Big Ten's worst (save Rutgers) and unless Maryland is ready to outscore its opponents, it will be hard-pressed to reach six wins with crossover games against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Result: Win, 42-14.

At Rutgers - Nov. 14

Greg Schiano is back, returning to coach Rutgers after a successful stint from 2001-2011, but much has changed since then, beginning with the conference he coaches in. This isn't the Big East. The Big Ten is ruthless, especially in the East Division with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and rising Indiana.

Michigan has had an average margin of victory of 43.8 against Rutgers in five seasons under Harbaugh and Rutgers has lost to the division's Big 3 by an average of 39.1 points in 15 losses. That shouldn't change in Schiano Year 1. Result: Win, 49-7.

Indiana - Nov. 21

For years we've been saying that Indiana is going to rise up and bite Michigan, but another year ticks off and it's now been 32 seasons since that last happened (1987). This year's Hoosier team was supposed to have the best chance in a decade, but U-M put the hammer down, winning 39-14.

For IU, there is hope in the return of rookie QB sensation Michael Penix Jr., who missed the U-M game due to injury, and tailback Stevie Scott. However, the threat of the Indiana offensive attack is mitigated by a defense that, though improving under Tom Allen, has never been able to slow down the big dogs: the Hoosiers have allowed an average of 38.4 points in 12 losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan since 2016. All three teams will likely hit that mark again in 2020. Result: Win, 38-21.

At Ohio State - Nov. 28

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Will 2020 be the year Michigan ends its losing streak to Ohio State? Don't count on it. The bigger question is, will U-M find itself still in the game in the fourth quarter? It trailed the Buckeyes 41-19 and 42-19 after three periods the past two seasons.

Here's to hoping the Michigan offense is explosive enough to keep pace, but don't expect a win. Never expect a win. Until it happens. Result: Loss, 49-35.

I have Michigan 9-3. I've been guilty of letting my emotions make predictions and so in each of the past two years I had U-M 11-1 or thereabouts. I won't fall for that again.

Under Harbaugh, the Wolverines have lost an average of 2.8 games per regular season. They haven't beaten Ohio State. On the road, Michigan is 15-9 under Harbaugh but 1-8 against ranked teams and the Maize and Blue will likely face three in Washington, Minnesota and OSU.

On the flip side, they have lost only three games to unranked teams in five seasons (at Utah, at Iowa and home to Michigan State) and are 30-5 overall in The Big House and 7-4 against ranked opponents in Ann Arbor (though 7-1 against everyone not named Ohio State).

After one or two years, forecasting is based off possibility and potential. After five years, you go with the trends. Michigan wins 85.7% of its home games under Harbaugh and that winning percentage goes up to 93.8% when you take out OSU.

The Wolverines should go undefeated in Ann Arbor in 2020, that gives them seven wins. They also win road games against unranked teams at a 93.8% clip, which gives them victories over Michigan State and Rutgers. They have beat just a single ranked rival on the road, however, so predicting losses to Washington, Minnesota and Ohio State (especially the Buckeyes) is not just prudent but expected.