Questions We're Asking: Does Michigan's Roster Have A Generational Talent?

Does Michigan have a generational talent among its ranks?

Among the faction of the fan base that still believes Michigan will reach the promised, Clemson and the seven years it took Dabo Swinney to reach the playoffs are a go-to argument that it can still be done. However, most fans also think Clemson is one of the programs that cheats on the recruiting trail so the Tigers are probably not the best example to use.

What Clemson did have when it made its breakthrough in 2015 was a generational talent at the quarterback position (Deshaun Watson) that lifted the program to new heights. A quick glimpse back through the playoff era reveals generational talents for almost every participant: Ezekiel Elliott and Justin Fields, at Ohio State, Jake Browning at Washington, Watson and then Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma.

The presence of a great player, especially at quarterback or running back, touching the football 20 or more times per game, has such an incredible impact, providing the swagger and confidence that elevate the play of an entire team.

This past season, Michigan didn't have that player. The closest the Wolverines have come in the Jim Harbaugh era was Jabrill Peppers in 2016. In hindsight, U-M would have benefited more from making Peppers a greater offensive contributor (perhaps even moving him to offense full time) - he had 29 offensive touches in 2016, averaging 5.9 yards per touch.

Will Michigan have that player in 2020, and if so, who?

As I wrote on Friday, I think both QB Joe Milton and WR Giles Jackson can be special players for the Maize and Blue. Milton has a howitzer for an arm and success in today's game is especially predicated on big pass plays - all four playoff quarterbacks ranked in the Top 12 for pass completions of 20 yards or more. In 2015, not one of the the playoff QBs ranked in the Top 20.

The game, meanwhile, has moved away from quarterbacks that run as much or almost as run as they pass, like redshirt junior Dylan McCaffrey portends to do if he is the starter for the Wolverines. In 2019, there were only four QBs (outside of Navy) to eclipse 800 yards rushing, including Power 5 Conference signal-callers Hurts at Oklahoma and John Rhys Plumlee at Ole Miss.

A decade ago, quarterbacks like Michigan's Denard Robinson, Auburn's Cam Newton and Nebraska's Taylor Martinez spearheaded an era in which running QBs were all the rage. But today, just five quarterbacks had double-digit gains of 20 yards or more on the ground while 49 had at least 40 completions of such.

For Jackson to be a generational player, he has to touch the ball 10-15 times per game next year, which would likely require at least five rushing attempts every Saturday. Jackson averaged about one carry per game as a true freshman this season, but it can be done. Purdue's Rondale Moore averaged 10.4 touches per game in 2018 and 10.9 yards per touch with 14 TDs.

It's far more difficult for a defensive player to be a generational talent because spread offenses can isolate great defenders, minimizing their impact. Ohio State's Chase Young gave, perhaps, the best argument for defensive end with 16.5 sacks this past season, but he didn't have a single QB takedown against Michigan, in the Big Ten Championship Game or OSU's playoff loss to Clemson. In fact, he had just 1.5 total tackles for loss in those three contests.

That leaves one potential position and player - safety Daxton Hill. Whether in zone or a multitude of man-coverages, only safety can cover the entire field, coming up to stop the run, harass the QB on blitzes, defend in man-to-man or roam centerfield in zone concepts. A dominant safety has the ability to influence half an offense's total snaps.

With three departures since the bowl game, and eight since Aug. 1, is Michigan's attrition normal?

In the ever-evolving modern-day college football, attrition - thanks to greater freedoms granted to student-athletes with the transfer portal and grad-transfer options - has escalated in recent years.

The old adage was that in a class of say 20-25, 1/3 would emerge as starters, 1/3 would be backups/reserves and 1/3 would likely never make it to the end of their eligibility, whether due to transfer or burnout or career-ending injuries or, sometimes, getting kicked out of school for academics or legal issues.

Without knowing the situation at every school, it's impossible to say if Michigan's attrition numbers are the new norm, but the transfer portal has swelled exponentially - already there are 39 quarterbacks alone ranked three-star or better in the 2020 portal and that's just one position out of eight listed by 247Sports.com

So what is Michigan's new norm? Among the 26 enrollees in the 2016 class, Jim Harbaugh's first full cycle and a class that ranked 8th nationally - 14 have left U-M before expiring their eligibility, including three early entrants into the NFL.

Michigan's 2017 class, ranked fifth nationally with 30 enrollees, has seen 15 signees already leave, two for the Draft, and there is talk of three more yet to announce intentions to transfer. If all three do so, that would bring the total number of early departures up to 18 or 60 percent. Gone are definitely the days of losing just 1/3 of a class to early defection.

Combined, the 2016-17 classes have seen 29 of 56 enrollees move on before exhausting their eligibility (this does not include potential fifth-year seniors not invited back by the staff).

As the roster stands today, U-M will feature 13 seniors in 2020, including likely starters WR Nico Collins, TE Nick Eubanks, DE Kwity Paye, DT Carlo Kemp, CB Ambry Thomas, S Brad Hawkins, PK Quinn Nordin and P Brad Robbins.

Slightly more than 50.0 percent of a class seems high, but it's still too early to say if such attrition is the anomaly or the rule for the Maize and Blue program. We need another two classes to matriculate further before we know for sure. So far, the 19-man 2018 class has lost only two players, both to transfer, while the 26-person 2019 recruiting class has not lost any.

What hurts is a lot of talent has walked out the door from the 2016-17 classes. Among the 14 early departures from the 2016 was a five-star and seven four-stars, including six Top 150 players. Another six Top 150 players, and a total of 12 four-stars and a five-star, left among the 2017 class. That makes 21 four- or five-stars to leave Ann Arbor out of 35 that enrolled.

To be fair, five of those left for the NFL, which brings the sum to 16 or 45.7 percent of Michigan's top signees in the 2016-17 classes to leave without impacting.

How long will the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry tilt in MSU's favor?

At least one more game after today's loss to the Spartans, the fourth defeat in a row to Michigan's in-state rival. Why? Because they have Cassius Winston and U-M does not.

Winston was incredible Sunday, scoring 32 points. He's been the best player on the floor the past four meetings and will be again when the two programs reconvene in Ann Arbor Feb. 8. Michigan doesn't have anyone that can stop Winston nor do the Wolverines have a player that can match Winston.

Senior point guard Zavier Simpson has given his best effort but the days of slowing Winston are relegated to history. Over the past four contests, Winston has scored 27 on 7 of 13 shooting, 23 on 7 of 18, 14 points on 5 of 13, and 32 on 11 of 19. That's an average of 24.0 points on 30 of 63 shooting (47.6 percent).

He has also contributed 35 assists to just 13 turnovers during that stretch.

Michigan's point guard, Simpson has always been more of a ball distributor than a scorer - during these four losses he has 11.3 points per game on 34.5 percent shooting - and while Simpson brings a lot of intangibles to the table, including outstanding leadership, he is losing the one-on-one battle significantly to Winston, and that probably won't change in the school's next game.

The good news is Winston graduates (as does Simpson) and a new generation of Wolverines and Spartans will duke it out for supremacy. Michigan sophomore David DeJulius has to be better - he had eight points on 3 of 9 shooting in today's loss - but he may take a backseat to four-star signee Zeb Jackson next season. MSU will counter with freshman Mark "Rocket" Watts, who has averaged 6.8 points per game this year on 52.9 percent shooting.

What the next era of the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry looks like will depend largely on these players and no one knows how it will turn out. Certainly, head coach Juwan Howard and Simpson won't concede the final matchup with Winston but he's one of the five best players in college hoops, and in this rivalry, has no equal.