Veteran Analyst Explains Why Michigan Will Beat Alabama

Right now, Michigan is considered a 1.5-point favorite over Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff. That's obviously a good sign, but really doesn't mean much until the teams get on the field together. So many people see Alabama and Nick Saban as some unbeatable force because frankly, they were for a lot of years. In 2023, they are not. Michigan has been much more consistent than Alabama and is such a sound all-around football team. For those reasons, long-time sports journalist and current senior write at Sports Illustrated Pat Forde sees Michigan as the victor come January 1. He doesn't give an exact score, but he does give several great reasons why the Wolverines will defeat the Tide.

"As much as Alabama has improved, it has still needed its opponents to make big mistakes to win its last two games. Guess who doesn’t do those things? Michigan. The Wolverines have committed two turnovers in their last 10 games, have been penalized fewer than three times per game this season and haven’t missed a kick since September. Michigan is due to win a playoff game, having built its program to the point where it can take the next step and make the championship game."

Forde is right. Michigan is as disciplined as teams come. The Wolverines take great care of the ball and don't kill their own drives by committing untimely penalties. That allows an extremely efficient JJ McCarthy and a serviceable run game to very often put points on the board. Furthermore, kicker James Turner has turned out to be an absolute stud. The Louisville transfer and Saline native is 16-of-18 on the year and has not missed an attempt since the Wolverines defeated Rutgers 31-7 back on Sept. 23. Turner has also knocked through three, fifty-yard field goals this year, including one against both Ohio State and Iowa in the Big Ten Championship, which means he's totally fine in clutch moments.

His final point also carries weight. After Jim Harbaugh missed the final three regular season games, he returned to the sidelines for the Big Ten Championship game against Iowa, which wasn't much of a challenge at all. I expect Harbaugh to be as locked in as ever for the matchup with Alabama, which is exactly what Forde is talking about when he says that Harbaugh built the program to the point where it can finally get over the first-round hump, even against Alabama and the legend Nick Saban.