Should Harbaugh, Michigan Be Held To 'Big Ten Title Or Bust' Standard In 2020?
I think most college football fans, including myself, would be willing to make a deal with the devil to guarantee a 2020 season. Ohio State wins the national title, Notre Dame is in the playoff and Michigan State wins eight games? If that's the deal, so be it.
In a COVID-19 world in which we haven't seen the four major sports leagues, college basketball, baseball or softball since March 11, there will be a simple joy in watching our teams compete.
And I wonder if that will be enough - if the sheer spectacle of our teams returning to action will be all we ask of them this season?
Would a winning record and a bowl berth be enough in 2020 for Michigan fans to be satisfied knowing the alternative could be a world without football?
Or will the U-M fan base demand more, knowing that the program is in Year 6 of the Jim Harbaugh regime and really needs to have something to show for it?
“We have to beat Ohio State,” Harbaugh said in an interview with Mike Tirico May 27. “Nothing makes us angrier than that, or me, but that’s what we’re working towards every day. We’ve beaten everybody else, but we haven’t beat them. That’s what we have to do - beat them, win a championship, get ourselves in the playoff, win a national championship.”
Harbaugh gets it, even if his words will ring hollow to a good portion of the fan base losing patience with him. To many Michigan fans, talk is cheap and 0-5 (record vs. Ohio State) is all that matters. The Wolverines have finished 6th (2016) and 7th (2018) in the final college football playoff ranking, but that's still two and three spots, respectively, outside the Top 4. (They have also finished 14th twice and not ranked in the final 25)
"We’re driving toward success, we want to put it over the top," Harbaugh also said during the Tirico interview. "We've just been on that outside of the playoffs, haven’t gotten in and want to push that over the top. That’s our mission."
Will it happen in 2020? Does it even matter or will seeing Michigan storm out of the tunnel, winged helmets running under the 'M Go Blue' banner satiate the fans for this season at least?
Just Glad It's Back
Almost 47% of nearly 800 votes (a strong sample size) said they'll approach this season without excessive expectations. Just play the games, allowing fans to revel in Saturday traditions, and everything else is gravy.
I can agree with that point of view, and believe I will even find myself there quite consistently in 2020, especially the first few weekends.
Every team, every fan base, wants to win championships. A proud program like Michigan that bills itself as 'Leaders & Best' or still boasts about having more college football wins than any other team in NCAA history, might demand success more than others, but the older I get (hopefully wiser), the more I understand the journey is, potentially, more important than the end result.
In other words, 12 or 13 fall football weekends, tailgating (likely virtually or in one's backyard this season), getting dressed up in your team's colors, flying your flag, singing the fight song, cheering when your team scores, passing your passion and love on to the next generation - if you truly think back on your fandom, that's what it has all been about.
I'm 40 years old. In my lifetime, Michigan has won a single national championship. It has won 13 Big Ten titles. It has won four Rose Bowls. It has finished its season with a victory just 17 times. It has won double digit games 15 times (with two or fewer losses only nine times). It has finished in the AP Top 10 15 times.
That is not overwhelming success. It means that in more than half of my years being a Michigan fan, my team has lost three or more games (31 times) or ended its season on a sour note (23 times).
Yet I, like you, am a lifelong fan. I have shown up over and over again, and while losses have stung and U-M's record to Ohio State going on two decades now is maddening, we return with giddy anticipation for each football season because following our team is not simply about wins and losses, championships and THE Game. It is about memories. Memories with friends. With your parents. With your siblings, your children.
It's about the feeling you get when you pull into Ann Arbor or when the TV broadcast offers that first glimpse of the maize and blue. It's about stirring our emotions, good and bad, and making us feel like we belong to something.
It's what I want to share with my son, John. And while the 1997 season (12-0) was definitely more fun than the 1996 season (8-4), we're not loyal fans because of wins alone - if that's all that mattered, we would jump bandwagons constantly.
We're fans because we care more about our team's journey and the journey each of us enjoys every fall together. So to have that experience in 2020, that's far more important than the end result.
Big Ten Or Best
Of course, one can appreciate everything I just wrote and still believe that certain expectations must be met by Michigan and Harbaugh this season. That's what more than 52% of the votes seemingly argue.
To them, enough is enough when it comes to this program treading water.
Certainly, Harbaugh has done a lot of good. Among the 15 most talented teams in college football since 2015 (per 247Sports.com's team composite talent rankings), he has the ninth-best winning percentage at 72.3%. Michigan no longer loses to scrub teams like Maryland and Rutgers, like it did under predecessors Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke.
U-M has re-established the Michigan-Michigan State relationship, the Wolverines 3-2 against their in-state rival under Harbaugh. The Maize and Blue are also 3-2 against Penn State and have an 82.1% winning percentage in conference play against everyone not named Ohio State.
But since when must the 'Leaders & Best' measure success with secondary achievements? In no literature in the proud annals of Michigan football, does U-M promote its record against everyone but the Buckeyes. In no literature do the Maize and Blue boast about their record against Penn State (or even Michigan State for that matter).
The video montage that runs at Michigan Stadium before home games voiced by James Early Jones brags that Michigan has more Big Ten championships than any other school, not second- or third-place finishes.
The standard by which the Michigan program defines itself is winning at the highest level, and that's a measure for which Harbaugh's program has grossly underachieved.
According to research by WolverineDigest, Harbaugh has the 10th best winning percentage among 247Sports.com's 15 most talented teams when playing Top 25 opponents from 2015-19. Michigan falls to 13th when matched up with Top 10 foes (behind Notre Dame and Penn State in both categories) and has never beaten a Top 5 team under Harbaugh.
Five years is enough time to run an entire recruiting cycle through the system.
Ohio State has reached juggernaut status, but Michigan contributed to OSU's rise by losing games it could have won in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
U-M may have been one controversially subjective play away in 2016 but also had three turnovers (two leading to touchdowns).
The Wolverines may have had a backup QB under center in 2017 but also surrendered 14-0 and 20-14 leads.
Michigan may have trailed only 21-19 late in the first half of 2018 but allowed 20 unanswered points as Ohio State took control.
Meanwhile, instead of capping 10-win regular seasons in 2016 and 2018, U-M lost New Year's Six bowl games (to Florida State and Florida), ceding opportunity to make a bigger name for itself among recruits.
Michigan's path to the top of the mountain only grows more daunting, with Ohio State signing the fifth and U-M the 14th rated classes in 2020 and the programs at first and fifth, respectively, in 2021 (admittedly, Michigan is having an outstanding 2021 class but between the '20-21 cohorts, the Buckeyes have six more five-stars).
For many Michigan fans, patience is running thin. Harbaugh has two years left remaining on his initial contract and while AD Warde Manuel is sure to extend it (for recruiting purposes if nothing else), a growing faction believes Harbaugh should be given these two years and no more if he doesn't beat Ohio State and win a Big Ten title by the end of 2021.
For those shouting for more, there is this: while COVID-19 canceled Michigan's spring practices and has left the Wolverines unable to work out together, and who knows what preseason camp and such will look like, every program in America has gone through the same thing. The Big Ten canceled spring practices. The Big Ten has not allowed organized team activities for all 14 of its institutions. In other words, Michigan is no better or worse than the 13 teams it will be competing against this season.
So if the playing field is level, then the expectations should be the same as if nothing had sidelined the Maize and Blue for the past 2.5 months.
Which side of the argument do you fall on?
