There's No Reason To Look Past Harbaugh, For Now
Over the weekend, my colleague here at WolverineDigest, Steve Deace, wrote a column on who could step into Jim Harbaugh's shoes if Michigan moved on from Harbaugh after the 2020 season, but simply put - it's not happening. Certainly not after this upcoming season.
Harbaugh has two years remaining on his original seven-year contract (2020 and 2021) and while Michigan has not yet announced an extension publicly, leading some to believe that both sides will mutually part ways after the 2021 campaign, we've been told Harbaugh's contract will be extended when the timing is right (announcing a multimillion dollar extension during rising unemployment due to COVID-19 would not have been good optics).
Even with the goose egg of 0-5 against Ohio State hanging over Harbaugh's head, he is wildly popular heading into the 2020 season for all the right reasons and he is on the precipice of signing, perhaps, the best recruiting class of his entire tenure, currently ranked fifth in the Rivals.com Team Rankings.
Harbaugh has to beat Ohio State. He has to win Big Ten titles. He shouldn't be permitted to coach in Ann Arbor for a decade without those things.
A program can't call itself "Leaders & Best" and boast about being the winningest college football team of all time with the most conference titles if it's always coming in second (or third) place in its own division. So at some point, there will be a hard decision about his future, but that day, at its earliest, is after the 2021 season.
Michigan will get some slack this year because:
• The schedule features four opponents that won 10 or more games last season (two on the road, at Minnesota and at Ohio State), plus a road trip at Washington to begin the year.
• Michigan will feature a first-year starting quarterback.
• The Wolverines will be replacing four offensive line starters.
• COVID, and getting rid of any coach, especially one winning 72.3% of his games, amid the handicaps of this particular offseason will be a bad look.
Now, it's obviously Year 6, and it's Harbaugh's responsibility in building his program to be able to reload at positions like quarterback and offensive line.
It's his job to have a top-flight QB ready to go after spending anywhere from four (redshirt junior Dylan McCaffrey), three (redshirt sophomore Joe Milton) or two (redshirt freshman Cade McNamara) years in the program - Ohio State won the Big Ten last year with a first-time starter under center (Justin Fields) while Penn State won 11 games with the same (Sean Clifford).
But if Michigan goes 10-2 or even 9-3 and loses to Ohio State yet again, Harbaugh isn't going anywhere. It would take a 7-5 season or worse to really grow the din loud enough for Athletic Director Warde Manuel to consider.
Thus, I find the idea of looking ahead to potential replacements for Harbaugh after 2020 moot. Now, if the conversation jumps to 2021, there might be legitimacy to it, after all the Wolverines will have this in their favor:
• A primer in Week 1 (Western Michigan instead of Washington).
• Home games against the Huskies, Michigan State and Ohio State.
• A crossover game against Nebraska (albeit on the road) instead of Minnesota, with the Cornhuskers at least two years behind the Gophers' progress.
• Very likely four and possibly five returning offensive line starters (depending on what redshirt sophomore right tackle Jalen Mayfield decides after 2020)
• A second-year starting quarterback, whether it's McCaffrey, Milton or McNamara, with nine projected starters returning on offense and seven back on defense (potentially more).
• A full, regular offseason (or so the hope is).
There are still significant challenges - playing at Wisconsin (in U-M's first road game of the season), at Penn State, and at Nebraska - but like 2019, all of the advantages will be in place for Michigan to win big.
I say, like 2019, because last fall Michigan had three of its toughest games at The Big House (Iowa, Notre Dame and Ohio State) and rival Michigan State too, had a multi-year starting QB, four seniors on the offensive line, a stacked receiving corps and another reloaded defense.
That Michigan went 0-4 in its four most difficult games (Wisconsin, PSU, Ohio State and Alabama) was cause for great concern and similar performances in 2020 and 2021 will be impossible to ignore. It is the 2021 season, though, that will decide Harbaugh's fate (unless of course he surprises and beats OSU and wins the Big Ten this year, then he can stick around for that decade).
If after 2021, after the contract signed seven years ago, Harbaugh has not accomplished the most important things on the field he was hired to do - beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten, make the college football playoff (and even win a national title) - there would be no football-specific justification for extending his tenure in Ann Arbor.
But only then. Conversation centered around replacing him before then is irrelevant.
