If Not Harbaugh, Who?

What would a realistic head coaching candidate pool look like if Michigan parted ways with Jim Harbaugh after this season? And would any of those names be more or less likely to beat Ohio State and win a Big Ten title in the next four years?

The comeback to those disappointed Jim Harbaugh has not reached the potential hoped for and expected, when he was hired five years ago, can be summed up in one question: "who are you going to be able to realistically get that's any better?"

To that end, let's say you're Athletic Director Warde Manuel. After another season of three or more losses and no titles, six months from now you're deciding whether to move on from Harbaugh or not. Before finalizing your answer, you decide you need to compile a realistic candidate pool. 

Then you need to ask yourself whether or not any of these names are more likely than Harbaugh to finally beat Ohio State, and end the program's longest Big Ten title drought in the next four years. Otherwise, why risk making a move at all?

Why four years? Because you're likely on the hot seat, too, should the lukewarm hell the Wolverines are currently mired in continue that long. 

Furthermore, what would a realistic pool of candidates look like? And no, Lincoln Riley is not a realistic candidate. A realistic candidate is someone who would clearly see this as a promotion as well as a pinnacle, and could also fit into the unique culture Michigan demands on and off the field -- as well as in the classroom. 

Finally, you also decide you need to hire a coach who would arrive in Ann Arbor with momentum, because you can't risk falling even further behind the Buckeyes. Therefore, this exercise also assumes every name on this list is coming off a successful season at their current school, or hasn't had too much time away from college football (so no Bob Stoops). 

Here are your top five candidates, in alphabetical order, with a scouting report on the various strengths and weaknesses each of them brings to the job:

Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Has extensive Midwest ties, and understands winning culture from his days at Division III powerhouse Mount Union and traditional MAC contender Toledo. Became a head coach at just 32 years old, and has won four conference coach of the year awards in his decade-long tenure. Led Iowa State to its most successful conference seasons ever in the Big 12, as well as its most consecutive winning conference records in the Big 12. First Cyclones coach since Earle Bruce to have multiple wins against top 10 teams and consecutive eight-win seasons. Embraces being the face of the program, and is transparent with the traditional media as well as very active on social media. Emphasizes playing traditional hard-nosed football with innovation, and is a tireless recruiter. His defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, is perhaps the best in the Big 12 and was a grad assistant at Michigan for Bo Schembechler's final two seasons in 1988-89. Has struggled against his biggest rival, Iowa. 

P.J. Fleck, Minnesota 
A Jim Tressel protege, Fleck began his coaching career as a grad assistant at Ohio State after his playing days, and worked his way up to full-time assistant on the 2006 squad that spent most of the season ranked No. 1. After stints with Joe Novak at his alma mater Northern Illinois, and Greg Schiano at Rutgers and Tampa Bay in the NFL, Fleck became the first FBS head coach born in the 1980s when Western Michigan hired him in 2013. His first year the Broncos were an abysmal 1-11, but after recruiting the top class in the MAC three consecutive years, he turned the program all the way around to a 13-0 regular season in 2016. Western Michigan was also the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. He got off to a slow start at Minnesota as well, but in his third year the Gophers had their most wins since 1904 and highest final ranking since 1962. Like his mentor, Tressel, he's a proponent of the power spread. He's omnipresent in the community and media, as well as a dynamic recruiter. His boundless energy and sloganeering are loved by his players once they buy in (and sneered at by media), but would that fit in at Michigan?  

Chris Petersen 
Considered one of the top 10 overall coaches in the sport before his abrupt resignation at Washington following the 2019 season. Stepped down citing stress and a need to recharge his battery. Without question he's the most qualified potential candidate, but you'd have to make sure he's fully committed to returning to coaching college football. Plus, other than one season as a position coach at Pittsburgh, he's spent his entire career out West. Has won three national coach of the year awards, and seven conference titles in his 14 seasons as a head coach. Led Washington to the College Football Playoff in 2016, and then consecutive New Year's Six Bowls the following two seasons. Was basically a legend at Boise State before that. Has never had a losing season or a hint of scandal as a head coach. Combines an old-school demeanor with new-school schematics and Xs and Os. With his .793 career win percentage, he's a lock for the College Football Hall of Fame and he's still a year younger than Harbaugh. 

Scott Satterfield, Louisville 
This would be an ironic hire, since Satterfield is a former Appalachian State player and assistant/head coach. And yes, he was the quarterbacks coach on the 2007 team that pulled off that infamous upset at the Big House. Has only been a head coach at the FBS level for six years, but has won conference titles in half of those, two conference coach of the year awards, and never had a losing record. After a dominant tenure at his alma mater, Satterfield took over a Louisville program that came into 2019 on a nine-game losing streak. He ended up leading the Cardinals to an eight-win season, which included the program's first road win against a ranked opponent in almost a decade. Is known for his wide open offenses, although only finishing with the 42nd-ranked recruiting class after such a successful first season is a red flag. Still, without a doubt he is considered one of the game's rising coaching stars. 

Mark Stoops, Kentucky 
While he lacks the flash of his older brothers, he's the coaching grinder in the family. From Nordonia High School in Ohio in 1995, to seven different assistant coaching gigs over the next 16 years, Stoops finally got his shot as a head coach at Kentucky in 2013. He later became the school's first SEC Coach of the Year since 1983, and has the school's only 10-win season in more than 35 years. Only the second coach at Kentucky since Bear Bryant to lead the Wildcats to four consecutive bowl games. Overcame a 2-3 start and the loss of his starting quarterback to still win eight games in 2019 -- and he did it by moving a wide receiver to quarterback mid-season. Known as a defensive guru, Stoops has made Kentucky a factor recruiting in the state of Michigan. He's the first Kentucky coach to ever have two of his players go on to become first round picks in the NFL Draft. 

These are the candidates. Is anyone on this list more likely to finally beat Ohio State and win a Big Ten title than Harbaugh over the next four years? You make the call, in the comments section. 

My colleague, Michael Spath, writes why this whole discussion is moot, for the time being.