Way Too Early Michigan Football Opponent Preview: Week 6 vs. Penn State

Michigan will open the season with games against Western Michigan, Oklahoma, and UTEP in non-conference play to begin the 2026 season. Their first Big Ten game will be Iowa at home, followed by a road trip to Minnesota in week five. In week six they will host the Penn State Nittany Lions under new head coach Matt Campbell, who came over from Iowa State. Let's dive more into how that matchup looks as we head into the 2026 college football season below.

2025 Recap

Penn State crashed and burned last season, entering the year as a top five team in the country but finishing at just 7-6 and firing James Franklin. Penn State cruised through their non-conference slate before losing at home to Oregon in overtime, and things really went off the rails after that. They would go on to lose to UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana in consecutive weeks.

In terms of personnel, Drew Allar was the starting quarterback who ended up being a big disappointment before going down due to injury. In six games he threw for just 1,100 yards with 8 TD's and 3 INT's. Ethan Grunkemeyer took over after that and he was a little better as he threw for 1,339 yards with 8 TD's and 4 INT's.

The running back room entered 2025 as maybe the best in the country on paper with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both returning for their Senior seasons. Nicholas Singleton was a disappointment as he missed some time due to an injury, but Kaytron Allen had a really good season finishing with 1,303 yards and 15 TD's. Singleton ran for 549 yards and 13 TD's in limited action.

In terms of team productivity, Penn State was 34th nationally in scoring offense and 85th in total offense. On defense they ranked 32nd in scoring defense, and 25th in total defense. On paper they weren't that bad statistically, but failed to hit expectations in a big way and for that James Franklin ultimately lost his job. Penn State will look very different this year, with a new coaching staff and a very different roster.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht looks to throw a pass on the run during the Penn State Blue-White Spring game | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Moves made for 2026

Gone is James Franklin, in is Matt Campbell. He brought a lot of players with him from Iowa State, most notably quarterback Rocco Becht. Becht is a multi-year starter, and in 2025 he threw for 2,584 yards while completing 60.5% of his passes for 16 TD's and 9 INT's while rushing for 116 yards and 8 TD's. He'll be a very experienced signal caller for the Nittany Lions in 2026 and should bring some stability to the team overall.

In terms of coaching, Matt Campbell was able to pry highly esteemed defensive coordinator and Penn State alum D'Anton Lynn away from USC. He also brought with him Taylor Mouser from Iowa State to remain as his offensive coordinator.

With the new coaching staff, a fair amount of talent that remained at Penn State following James Franklin's departure, and all the transfers they brought in from Iowa State there's a good chance Matt Campbell will be able to hit the ground running for the Nittany Lions. The big question will be just how good of a team will they be right away this season?

Penn State Football head coach Matt Campbell speaks during Media Days | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Why Michigan should be able to handle the Nittany Lions

In my opinion, both of these teams will be much improved in 2026 from what they were in 2025. Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell are both highly respected coaches who have gotten it done at smaller schools. In terms of roster talent, Kyle Whittingham has more to work with this season. He also will get the benefit of playing this game at home, so Michigan should be favored when they welcome Penn State into town.

The overall talent level of Michigan being higher combined with the fact that Michigan will get to play this game at home has me fairly confident that the Wolverines will win this game, based on everything we know right now. I'd predict something like a 24-14 type Michigan win in this matchup with Penn State in 2026.

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