What MSU Needs in Each Game in Most Likely Final Four Path

The path to the Final Four for Michigan State is now set.

MSU is a No. 3 seed in the East Region this year after just missing out on a 2 seed by being the nation's No. 9 overall seed. Either way, the draw is the draw. The Spartans are trying to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2019, when Michigan State was also in the East Region. Here's what MSU will need against the four most likely opponents it would face en route to Indianapolis.

First Round - No. 14 North Dakota State

Nov 10, 2022; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; North Dakota State Bison guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas (10) drives against Kansas Jayhawks guard Bobby Pettiford Jr. (0) during the first half at Allen Fieldhouse. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The key to surviving any sort of upset bid for Michigan State will be to limit North Dakota State's three-point shooting. The Bison rank 39th nationally in three-point percentage, making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc this season.

This has been a problem lately for MSU, which has allowed each of its last five opponents to make at least 10 threes. NDSU is a pretty small team, ranking 339th in average height on KenPom, so taking away the perimeter is the easiest path to victory here.

Second Round - No. 6 Louisville

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Pat Kelsey reacts in the first half at Spectrum Center. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Things would flip in the second round against sixth-seeded Louisville. The Cardinals are still a decent three-point shooting team, but they are better inside the arc. Their 59.7% mark from two-point range is ninth in the country, according to KenPom. Starting center Sananda Fru makes 77.3% of his twos, which is the second-best mark in the entire country (min. two shots per game).

Also worth noting is the up-in-the-air status of Mikel Brown, who has missed Louisville's last four games with a back injury. He averages 18.2 points per game.

Sweet 16 - No. 2 UConn

Mar 14, 2026; New York, NY, USA; Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts on the bench against the St. John's Red Storm during the first half of the men's Big East Conference Tournament Championship at Madison Square Garden. | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Things start getting really difficult if/when the second weekend arrives. UConn would be the most likely opponent in the Spartans' potential Sweet 16 game (though I do think No. 7 seed UCLA would have a good chance to unseat the Huskies). MSU and UConn met in an exhibition back in October in Storrs, where the Huskies won 76-69.

That doesn't mean much for a neutral-site game about five months later, though. The tough part for the Spartans would be solving UConn's balanced defense, which ranks in the top 15 nationally at three-point and two-point defense on KenPom.

Elite Eight - No. 1 Duke

Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) advances against Michigan State Spartans center Carson Cooper (15) during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. | Dale Young-Imagn Images

If MSU gets to that Elite Eight round, there is a good chance Duke, the nation's top overall seed, is the one waiting for it once again. These two teams have already faced one another in March Madness seven times (it really feels like more than that), so it wouldn't be much of a stunner if it happened again.

The Blue Devils already beat Michigan State, 66-60, in East Lansing back in December. To change that result in Washington, D.C., Michigan State would have to convert more shots around the rim. Duke held MSU to a 29.5% mark from inside the arc that day, which is the lowest percentage for any of the Spartans' games this year, and actually the lowest mark for any non-conference game since at least the 1996-97 season.

Michigan State's Tom Izzo yells at a referee about a call made during a game against Northwestern at the Breslin Center on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI