The Chances of Michigan State Still Reaching a Bowl Game

With five games left in the season, MSU has a tough schedule ahead of them as they look to make a bowl for the first time since 2021

Jonathan Smith patrols the sidelines during Michigan State's game at USC on Sept. 20, 2025. | Darrell Craig Harris, On SI

Michigan State Football is currently in the middle of a four-game losing streak, and it is looking more likely that the Spartans will miss the bowl season for a fourth straight season.

With Michigan State's upcoming in-state matchup against Michigan on Saturday, the Spartans will be underdogs for the rest of their remaining five games, according to ESPN’s analytics, which predict the probability of the winner of each matchup.

A loss to Michigan would leave the Spartans with a 3-5 record and an even lower chance of making a bowl game this postseason. Michigan State's remaining games on its schedule are against Minnesota on the road, Penn State at home, Iowa on the road, and Maryland in Detroit at Ford Field.

Michigan

Oct 18, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Cole Sullivan (23) celebrates after he makes an interception in the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Against in-state Michigan, the Spartans will need to put a stop to the Wolverines running game. Junior transfer running back Justice Haynes has been at the top of the Big Ten in rushing as he is second in total yards with 705 yards, and first in yards per game with 117.5 yards per game.

If the Spartans want to win, they need to stop the running game. Rivalry games have always been competitive, and MSU needs to win this game to build momentum to become bowl eligible.

Minnesota

Oct 17, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers linebacker Matt Kingsbury (49) and linebacker Emmanuel Karmo (2) pose for a photo after the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Minnesota has a great defense as it holds opposing offenses to 197 yards passing and 97.7 yards rushing. Minnesota has also been elite at rushing the quarterback, as they have 23 total sacks compared to the Spartans' 13. Senior linebacker Devin Williams has been the leader for the Minnesota defense. Williams is one of the top tacklers in the conference and has had a great overall PFF grade of 80.1 through the first half of the season.

Penn State

Oct 18, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions cornerback Elliot Washington II (9) reacts with defensive end Yvan Kemajou (99) and linebacker Dominic Deluca (0) after returning a blocked field goal attempt by Iowa Hawkeyes kicker Drew Stevens (not pictured) 35 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Penn State has been on its own four-game losing streak as it had gone from ranked number two in the AP preseason poll, to now having the same record as Michigan State. However, even with James Franklin being fired earlier this year and Drew Aller injured for the rest of the season, the Spartans should not overlook the Nittany Lions.

The last time Michigan State overlooked its opponent, UCLA crushed them 38-13 at home for homecoming. Kaytron Allen is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten as he is fourth in the Big Ten in rushing yards with 612, and fifth in yards per game with 87.4. No matter Penn State's struggles this season, they are still very talented and should be taken seriously.

Iowa

Iowa has always been a tough team to play on the road. Since the 2020-2021 season Iowa has a home record of 28-7, with three games to go. While Iowa hasn't been known for offense, its defense has always been one of the best in the country. While they don't light up the stat sheets like sacks and interceptions, they hold their opponents to 249.8 yards per game which is fourth in the BigTen.

The Iowa Hawkeyes dance team is pictured during pregame at a college football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions Oct. 18, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Maryland

Playing in Detroit hasn't helped with home field advantage the way people think. The last time MSU played in Ford Field was in 2023 Penn State shut out the Spartans 49-0. While Maryland is on a 3 game losing streak each loss has been by one possession. Maryland has been a young competitive team as they have Malik Washington who is a very talented true freshman.

With the remaining five games left on its schedule, Michigan State needs to win three to become bowl eligible. However the rest of their schedule is tough as each team is also fighting to become bowl eligible.

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