The Outlook Moving Forward: Ohio State

Coming off their second bye week of the season, the Spartans host the Ohio State Buckeyes at 8:00 Saturday night on ABC.

Offense

Stats are for losers, one current Big Ten Head Coach is famous for saying. Whether or not that’s true, they sure are great for teeing up a primetime matchup that will decide a Championship. Both teams know this one is essentially for the Big Ten East. MSU has the 9th ranked Total Offense in the country right now, OSU counters with the 8th ranked Total Defense. The Spartans’ Offense averages 45.5 points per game, the Bucks’ Defense allows an average of 19.9 per contest. Of all the matchups within a matchup this week, the MSU Offense versus the OSU Defense is probably the most interesting one.

It goes without saying that a large portion of this game will be won upfront, just as it was ultimately decided last year. MSU’s held its own against a couple decent defensive fronts so far, but similar to last year’s Big Ten Title game, have not faced a group as stout as the Buckeyes. Ohio State is led by Chuck Bednarik Semi-Finalist Joey Bosa, who leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss and forced fumbles so far. He’s not the only Buckeye up front that can make plays, however, as newly relocated Nose Guard Adolphus Washington is another Buckeye with a hand in the dirt to keep an eye on Saturday night.

Running the ball shouldn’t look as easy this week as it did against Michigan two weeks ago. Ohio St. doesn’t rank 18th in Rushing Defense (allowing only 118 yards per game) by accident. That MSU rushing total will be one to watch if you have a box score open during the game because MSU needs to run the ball, and the Buckeyes know that. Expect OSU to try and stop the run first and force MSU to rely on their passing game. To counter the stacked box MSU should expect to face, look for more passing on 1st Down. They may quickly get to a point where they need to “pass to run,” in their quest to remain balanced, and must avoid becoming too predictable by sticking to handoffs only on 1st and 2nd Down.

Pass Defense is Ohio State’s relative strength. OSU’s completely revamped Defense has allowed only 181.4 yards per game through the air so far, notching them 13th in the country in that stat. They haven’t faced anything close to Spartans passing attack yet, which averages about 260 per game via that forward pass thing. Still, we should expect the Bucks to be plenty confident. MSU’s depth at the pass catching positions should show up Saturday night because they Buckeyes have the talent needed to line up with Tony Lippett and the Spartans’ top targets.

Coming off a bye week usually produces one of two results for an Offense. They tend to either show up looking very precise, or have the look of a group that has fallen out of rhythm. That kind of rust usually takes three series or so to knock off. Since this game is expected to be tight the whole way, MSU needs to make the most of each series and cannot really afford a slow start. They should have every opportunity to play well, at home, and put together four solid quarters of Offense. While MSU is favored on paper and perhaps expected to win this Saturday night, they cannot do so if they are rendered ineffective by an athletic and better organized Ohio State Defense than they faced last year.

Defense

The Spartan Dawgs surely enjoyed their rest last week as they started to prepare to play their best football during November. They had ultimate success against the Buckeyes last December, but if you recall were gashed on the ground in the middle of the game by the power of Carlos Hyde and agility of Braxton Miller. OSU ran for 273 yards that night. Both of those fine runners are not playing in this edition of OSU-MSU, but the Bucks will show up to East Lansing as more than just a one dimensional threat.

Ohio State’s season completely changed shape when Braxton Miller’s surgically repaired right shoulder broke down only days before the season opener. The bottom fell out in their home opener in a horrifying loss to Virginia Tech. The remnants of that loss continue to hobble them today and will stick with them even if they can best MSU Saturday night. OSU ranks 54th in Passing Offense right now and Quarterback J.T. Barrett didn’t look that great in a 167 yard performance last week as the Bucks mopped up Illinois, 55-14. Taiwan Jones even suggested this week that Barrett is a better fit for the Urban Meyer Offense than Miller was last year. That would sound a lot more accurate with a winning passing performance from Barrett Saturday night, but look for OSU’s ground game to continue as their tone setter.

Replacing Hyde alone was enough for Urban Meyer to work on for 2014, but when he lost arguably the best runner in the country not named Todd Gurley, things got tougher. Behind another solid Offensive Line though, OSU is averaging 259 yards per game on the ground, ranking 13th in the nation. MSU is about 5-yards per game behind Ohio State in that statistic, as a reference point. Expect the Bucks to feature Barrett and at least two Running Backs in this game, and expect them to come out and challenge MSU to establish the running game. It’s hard to see them winning without an outstanding ground game against an MSU unit that only gives up 95.6 yards per game on the ground. Yet, this should be a deeper challenge than just keying in one feature back like they did against Indiana and Nebraska.

Like we said about the Offense, this matchup begins up front. Whoever gets the best of the other line should get the best of the rushing statistics for the day, and in kind feature the most balanced Offensive attack. We have seen the Spartan Defense improve during the month of October, but their true progress will be revealed Saturday night.

Special Teams

If you’re expecting a close game, there will always be extra attention paid to the Special Teams units. In the close ones it’s often a Special Teams gaffe that ends up the difference. Sure, sometimes is a play that’s executed, but probably more often it’s an error that tilts the final outcome. Spartan Nation is well versed in MSU’s relatively rocky play from this unit thus far. Rest assured that a lot of time was spent during the bye week to help sure things up. And for the kickers, getting a few extra practice reps in Spartan Stadium should help come Saturday night.

Weather could be a real issue Saturday night as the Big Ten’s signature conditions should be in town. Whether or not there’s any rain or snow falling come game time, it will be cold and the ball will be hard and unable to fly as far as it does during more clement times. That may shrink each team’s ability to convert a long Field Goal, so decisions to try a kick from over 40 yards will be very interesting to watch.

Ohio State has been pretty good covering kicks this year and Special Teams is surely a focus for Urban Meyer this week. It must be a higher focus for the Spartans than it’s been up to this point of 2014. MSU hasn’t gotten championship level play out of this unit, though it hasn’t been relied upon as much while the Offense has been lighting it up and the Defense has worked to find its form. Special Teams should matter more this week than it has during any other game this year. Watch for a play that has a direct impact on the final result.

Overall

Somewhere out west Keith Jackson will probably flip this game on and start out by announcing to the room, “well it alllllllllllll comes down to this.” That’s what we’ll be looking at Saturday night. The winner will almost certainly go on to take the Big Ten East, the loser will say goodbye to the inaugural College Football Playoff. And good luck to the loser when it comes to trying to sell Bowl tickets this December.

All parties expect a close game, which may lead to a fresh Mark Dantonio postgame comment about Football being a game of inches. “Those inches are found in technique,” he revealed earlier this week. The battle for those inches will be magnified Saturday night. Coming off the bye week, MSU’s technique should be all tightened up.

This matchup is not only big, it’s become personal. When Urban Meyer stepped foot in Columbus, he was stuck with the task of bringing the Buckeyes back to a national championship, and more broadly to lead  Big Ten football back to national respectability. Things didn’t get off to a smooth start though, as Meyer made early waves flipping key recruits from MSU and Wisconsin during his first months on the job. Battle lines were quickly drawn, friendships openly questioned.

2012 was an incredibly bitter season for the Spartans, with no loss stinging more than the 17-16 home defeat to the Buckeyes. MSU may have outplayed the Buckeyes that day, but one bizarre quick whistle after a Braxton Miller fumble saved a Touchdown and probably the game for OSU. MSU did not really recover until the post season Bowl Game. The Spartans would’ve gone to 4-1 with a win over OSU that day, and probably stabilized the season from there. Instead they would head down a road of frustration, serious struggle, and bitter losses that have not been forgotten by this program.

Come 2013, the shoe was on the other foot. MSU had been practically assured a Rose Bowl trip before the Big Ten Championship thanks to the most improbable final second in major College Football history, the Iron Bowl shocker at Auburn last Thanksgiving weekend. So the Spartans didn’t have much to gain in Indianapolis, but more importantly had little to lose. They were bound to be the looser team, and certainly played like it throughout the night. The Buckeyes had won 24-straight and were one win away from the National Championship game. That’s how far Urban Meyer had come in just two years, and how much they stood to lose.

The weight of everything seemed to catch Ohio State early as MSU got off to a 17-0 start. Then the Buckeyes took over at the line of scrimmage and actually went ahead 24-17 in the 3rd Quarter. But when he was needed most, Connor Cook took things over and MSU came from behind to close the Buckeyes out 34-24, essentially completing a 31-point swing and completely deflating the hopes, dreams, and expectations of one Urban Meyer. OSU has honestly yet to recover.

That, in a nutshell, is how a rivalry is born and a football game becomes personal to so many of the participants involved. We may be only three years into this new era, but this thing has emotion, scars, and will only build from here as long as the (ridiculous) Big Ten alignment keeps both teams in the same division. Regardless of what any Coach or player said this week, everyone saw Meyer’s face after the loss last year just as everyone saw Dantonio’s face after the loss in 2012. Both conveyed the truth.

If the Spartans come out on top Saturday, Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes will salt for another 12 months about Michigan State keeping them from bouncing back to reach the goals they fell short of in 2013. If the Buckeyes prevail it will be revenge, satisfaction, and a flood of media storylines filled with “perseverance” themes all over the coverage from the Big Ten game of the year.

These are the games that set this sport apart from the NFL. The second and third weekend of the NFL Playoffs are very good, and occasionally you get a run of Steelers v. Ravens or Redskins v. Cowboys that transcends the sport for a short period, but more than 95% of the time that doesn’t exist. It’s also interesting because of the Ohio-Michigan connection. Many of the Spartans top performers like Connor Cook, Marcus Rush, and Kurtis Drummond are from the state of Ohio. None were deemed worthy of a true Buckeye scholarship offer, but all have proven they could’ve played and succeeded at Ohio State.

Most of the time someone thinks they deserve something from an institution but doesn’t get it, they are naturally inclined to get up even more for any future chance to shove that back in that institution’s face. It’s not wrong, it’s not unique to kids from Ohio or to guys that go to Michigan State, it’s a basic competitive human nature. In the recent past this dynamic has produced some amazing performances and speeches, like the one out of Denicos Allen before last year’s game. That dynamic only adds fuel to the growing Buckeye-Spartan fire. Saturday night the stakes will once again be big, and the outcome very important to the flagship programs of the Big Ten right now.

P.A.T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. It seems like Maryland and their best player Stefon Diggs got hit pretty hard by the Big Ten because of what Michigan did in Spartan Stadium the week before. In case you forgot, Michigan pulled off a little pre-game stunt, prop included, that was less than sportsmanlike. Looking to get the attention of Penn State, who’s traditionally owned the DMV (District-Maryland-Virginia) when it comes to recruiting, Diggs led the Terps in all kinds of pre-game antics that were immediately reacted upon by the Big Ten office. Yet, it feels like the new kid in town is getting hammered because the league wants to send a conference wide message that the incidents observed in the past couple weeks will not be tolerated without a stiff enough punishment to seriously mess up a team’s chances of winning in the future.
2. I think the reason so many people are fond of LeBron James’ return to Cleveland is loyalty. So many people are starved for loyalty these days. They don’t feel it in their work life like they used to, many don’t feel it in their home life like they used to, and we rarely see it anymore in the world of professional sports. It’s even started to leak into College sports in recent years, scaring the masses and making us wonder if it will ever stop. James’ return flipped the script on that trend, and Cleveland now seems content to leave his own past disloyal acts permanently in the past. He’s got them all behind him once again, and that refreshing dose of loyalty is what appears to have struck sports fan in just the right way.
3. What a face plant by the Georgia Bulldogs in the Cocktail Party game last week against Florida. It still boggles my mind that those two agree to play that rivalry game in a neutral site.  Who does that help outside the city of Jacksonville? But now onto more interesting matters at Florida, like who their Head Coach will be next year. A couple names that might want a conversation with the folks in Gainesville: Brian Kelly, Greg Schiano, Rich Rodriguez, and Mike Leach. But forget about it, Pirate. Kelly is the guy they should go after. With ND standing on the outside looking in at the Playoff, Kelly has an extra excuse to flock south. Plus, Florida is a better job than Notre Dame, just ask Urban Meyer.

Tell me what you think @JPSpartan & inside the Phalanx Forum