The Outlook Moving Forward: Ohio State

Coming off their 24-7 win over the Maryland Terrapins last week, the Spartans head to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on ABC.

Offense

How healthy is Connor Cook? That's the critical question as this unit prepares for the game of the year and as Cook looks to get the best of the Buckeyes one last time. Without question, MSU will need a quintessential Connor Cook to find success at Columbus. Cook was arguably at his best in the 2013 Big Ten Championship game when he torched the Bucks in the 4th Quarter to drive the MSU comeback. After last year's OSU game got away from MSU quickly in the 2nd Quarter, Cook was forced to throw more often than the Spartans probably wanted in an effort to catch up. The Ohio native threw for over 350 yards that night but completed only 25 of his 45 throws. In 2013, Cook was 24 of 40 for 304 yards.

As much as the Spartans want to "Pound, Green, Pound," they haven't been able to do much of that against the Urban Meyer led Buckeyes. When you look at Cook's numbers from those last two games it suggests that MSU will need to throw at least 40 times Saturday, if not more than 50. Before Cook took over, in Meyer's first season, Andrew Maxwell threw the ball 40 times and MSU ran it only 32 times. There's no reason to think that trend will change in 2015.

The Spartans goal for this Saturday should be to run the ball sufficiently, but to make their mark and move the ball through the air. A run-first-stubborn approach this weekend against the 24th ranked Rushing Defense in the country, one that's recently kept the Spartans running game in pretty good check, will lead to great frustration and only put more pressure on the MSU passing game. A good mix of the pass and run, along with a health Cook, should give MSU the opportunity to score in the 30s against the Buckeyes again.

Ohio State is led by their NFL size and strength up front. Joey Bosa and Adolphus Washington are better than the Spartans have faced all year. Their ability to control and dictate the line of scrimmage will play a primary role in determining what kind of success the Spartans Offense has Saturday afternoon and evening. The trademark of the MSU-OSU game during the Dantonio-Meyer era has been the battle up front. "It’s been the difference," Urban Meyer summed up to Spartan Nation earlier this week.

On the back end, where MSU has had some success against the Buckeyes in the past two games, Ohio State has players too. OSU Cornerback Eli Apple made some noise earlier this week saying "there is gonna be a lot of talking out there," and claimed the Spartans ran their mouths a good bit on the field during the 2014 game. There's always talk back and forth in a rivalry game, and make no mistake this is the on-field rivalry in the Big Ten right now, just look at the last three games and all these teams have played for. Apple said OSU hopes to let their play do the talking this week and if the Buckeyes' Pass Defense is as improved as they believe it is, it will show up this Saturday. At the same time, MSU has a top flight passing attack that's had significant success against the Buckeyes in their past two meetings.

Macgarrett Kings, Jr. has made plays against the Buckeyes the last two years. Kings has been a favorite of Cook's over the years, and should be again this week. When the agile Senior Wide Receiver gets the ball in space, he can make people miss. But Kings is also not afraid to go over the middle and get a tough ball. That's the kind of attitude the entire group of receivers will need against a better Buckeye Pass Defense. The Bucks rank 8th in Passing Yards Allowed right now and 6th in Team Passing Efficiency Defense. That one's a mouthful of a stat, and though the Bucks Strength of Schedule currently ranks 57th, it would be foolish to underestimate that aspect of their team.

"This is the best group (of MSU pass catchers Meyer's Buckeyes have faced), they’re just getting better and better," Meyer told Spartan Nation earlier this week. That group of Spartans knows it will take an outstanding effort and high level of execution through each whistle to find success in the Horse Shoe this trip. In the end, talk is cheap and results always drown that noise out of the mix anyway. MSU has to get the better of the Bucks' Pass Defense this time around.

All of the hype, chatter, and Cook's health aside, the Spartans know they need their best offensive performance on Saturday, starting up front. Ohio Stadium is arguably the best football stadium and environment in the country. It will not be easy for the Offense to go out there and do whatever they want. The Spartans know they need to run the ball effectively and downhill as much as possible, but also should understand that they have to primarily move it through the air

The Spartans should have an edge because a number of players like Kings, Josiah Price, and Cook have all had big time performances against the Buckeyes in recent years.  Therefore, more than anyone Ohio State will play this year, the Spartans' Offense can matchup with them mentally. The 2015 Buckeyes are not used to that. Usually there's a built in edge of intimidation that comes with being the defending National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes. That will not be the case on Saturday, and perhaps that will be the difference for this Offense.

Defense

The Spartan Defense took advantage of a shaky Maryland attack last week and tightened things up in preparations for Ohio State. “We needed a good defensive game going into next week,” Dantonio said on his post game radio show. The highlight was Riley Bullough’s interception return for a Touchdown, one of five Terps turnovers on the day. The Spartans' work on 4th Down also caught some praise. "Those are like turnovers,” Dantonio explained. This week they are not facing Maryland. The Buckeyes Offense will not look or move much like the 2015 Terrapins unit.

The strength of the Buckeyes Offense remains their ground game. OSU features perhaps the best Running Back in the country, Ezekiel Elliot, who went for 154 of the Bucks’ 268 yards on the ground at MSU last year. Last week he went for 181 against Illinois and Quarterback J.T. Barrett ran for 74 yards in his return from suspension. OSU is 11th in the country in Rushing Offense entering the week averaging 244.8 yards per game.

The Spartans Rushing Defense has been slipping a bit but is still 18th overall, giving up 121 yards per game. The Buckeyes rushing attack versus the Spartans rush defense should mirror the game’s final score. In the Big Ten Title Game of 2013, MSU’s interior Defensive Line play and Linebacker speed to the outside was the difference. When the Buckeyes made their charge during the middle portion of the game it was fueled by their ability to push MSU off the ball in the middle. When the Spartans made their comeback and shut OSU down for good, it happened because of their push through the interior of the line. “You’ve got to control your gaps and be gap sound,” Dantonio told Spartan Nation about interior line play early this week.

MSU cannot stay with Ohio State this week without its best effort from the inside of the Defensive Line and good tackling from their Linebackers. Make no mistake, MSU has missed Linebacker Ed Davis this year. Though they missed his speed and range a good bit against Oregon, they will miss him more this week than at any time in 2015. Ohio State is loaded with speedy and powerful ball carriers that regularly make defenders look bad. Whether it’s too sharp a tackling angle or bad form in attempting a tackle, the Bucks will have no problem running through the middle level of the MSU Defense if they aren’t sharp and technically better than they've been in the past couple weeks.

If the Buck’s get to the back end of the MSU Defense, those Spartans' will have to take much better tackling angles than they did in the 2014 game. Those angles are at a premium when the ball gets into the secondary because they can turn a good gain into a long Touchdown if not executed well. OSU ranks 85th in Passing Offense, so it’s not as likely the Buckeyes will put it up on the edges to go deep until they’re forced to. It is likely, given the Urban Meyer Offense and the athletes they’ve got in Scarlet and Grey, that the Bucks will look to get outside with the ball to test whether the Spartans can contain potential big play damage. If MSU can't, they will have to hope to win a shootout. The Spartan Defense knows it's up to them to keep such a shootout from happening.

The Buckeyes average 36.4 points per game (28th ranked) so they’d probably love to get MSU into a shootout at home this week. They're basically a run based spread attack that’s somehow ranked 33rd in Total Offense, yet talked about on a regular basis as if they’re struggling. MSU won’t buy into that notion. OSU is the real deal, with explosive and big time talent that will take off to the house if you give them daylight or make a mistake. If the Spartans are to have a chance to win this week they will have to find a way to beat Ohio State at the line of scrimmage and tackle the Buckeyes like they haven’t seen since Indianapolis some 23 months ago. "If you win up front, usually you have a great chance of winning a football game,” Dantonio concluded earlier this week. That's where this matchup starts and should finish.

Special Teams

The Spartans had their best overall Special Teams performance against Maryland last week. “Our special teams played outstanding in terms of our kickoff coverage and our punt coverage,” Dantonio described immediately after the win. Though Maryland is far from a good team they do have a dangerous return game that apparently got the attention of the Spartans last week. That attention cannot lapse an ounce in the Horse Shoe this week.

The highlight play of last week was the Field Goal fake attempt gone wrong for MSU. “Probably would’ve housed it if we got the one block on the fake,” Dantonio said on his post game show. Most of us would have to agree after reviewing the video replay, but don’t look for an actual replay on the field this weekend. You can expect that MSU has a trick play or two up their sleeve. You can expect they’ll probably look to use it sooner than later, but who knows what kind of trick play it might be and whether it may not even show up on Special Teams. Trust the Buckeyes will have reviewed every trick play that MSU’s run in the Dantonio era, if not more.

MSU’s kickers looked much better last week. Kevin Cronin looked a lot healthier, unless there was some other explanation for how poorly he kicked at Nebraska before turning it back on seven days later against Maryland. He will need to show up strong for Columbus. Jake Hartbarger seems to have settled in for good Punting, but don’t be stunned if we see Tyler O’Connor in there since he’s got those upperclassmen nerves and the ability to make or present a threat to run or throw that formation at any time. Michael Geiger is trending the right direction again too and could be an edge for MSU because the Bucks’ kicking game is a little rusty, recently untested, and not exactly spectacular.

Weather could become a real issue on Saturday. A mix of rain and snow is possible, as is ice, sleet, and probably mix of sunshine if you know anything about the weather in that part of the country during the month of November. Weather often affects Special Teams play more than other areas because the ball is flying through the air at a higher elevation level, so keep an eye out for something crazy to happen on a kick if it gets a little bit nasty out there. The Spartans need their emphasis on Special Teams from last week to carry over into this week because Special Teams play can easily create or close a gap between the two teams over the course of 60 minutes.

Overall

This is the game of the season in College Football. Super fans across the country have been thinking about this game since late January. Members of the respective programs have probably had it in the back of their minds since then too. While it came up just short being a #1 versus #2, these are without question the best programs in the Big Ten right now. MSU and OSU have the best players, best coaches, best facilities, are the best organized, have the best fan bases, and so on. They are currently, by a wide measure, the top dogs in the pack, neither of which shows any signs of retreating any time soon.

Michigan State-Ohio State has always mattered, but it’s never meant more or burned hotter than it is right now. Urban Meyer’s arrival to Columbus turned up the heat immediately as recruiting grounds between the two schools were redefined, a facilities competition between the two broke out, and the action on the field got more intense as the game started to have a direct impact on the Big Ten and National Championships.

Urban Meyer has recounted time and time again the importance of the OSU 17-16 victory over MSU at Spartan Stadium in 2012. Spartan Nation remembers that game well as the “quick whistle” game. But for a quick whistle on a fumble recovery, Kurtis Drummond would’ve taken it back for a score and MSU probably wins that game. On the backs of that one-point “W,” Meyer’s squad went on to finish the year undefeated. They’ve lost three games in his tenure at OSU, the only Big Ten loss coming in the 2013 Big Ten Championship game to MSU. That loss also cost the Buckeyes a berth in the National Championship Game.

Last year’s game turned on what appeared to be an MSU Touchdown to go up 28-14. After being taken off the board by a Holding call, Connor Cook’s 3rd Down pass was inches from being brought in by Josiah Price for a clean score. Then Michael Geiger’s 39-yard attempt missed and the Buckeyes took off from there while introducing everyone to J.T. Barrett.

The game of Barrett's life started on the snap after Geiger's miss. He went on to throw bomb after bomb and left the Spartans trying to figure out what happened. MSU went from walking the sidelines with the feeling of being up 28-14 and in total control to somehow being tied at 21 just a few snaps later. They never recovered, Barrett’s feet never touched the ground that night, and the dream finish for Ohio State got its start in Spartan Stadium with their 49-37 win.

The keys for the Spartans defensively this week are to contain the OSU rushing attack, limit big plays, and get Ohio State uncomfortable on Offense. A Buckeye attack in rhythm spells trouble for MSU, but an out of sync OSU Offense will create tension and anxiety in Columbus. MSU has to have a fantastic effort from its Defensive Line, specifically the interior to stop the run, and on the edges late in the game to get some of those "4th Quarter Sacks" Jon Gruden loves to rave about.

Offensively the Spartans have to come out healthier than advertised and willing to lead with the pass. They have to get the majority of the 50-50 balls that will be up for grabs because the numbers and history suggest the Spartans will be throwing the ball around a good bit. Though the Bucks claim to be much improved defending the pass, we'll find out the truth by the end of Saturday after they've played a big time passing attack.

On Special Teams Ohio State has the clear advantage though the Spartans appear to be tightening up the ship after making a total mess for most of 2015. Needless to say if the game is close, Special Teams will again be magnified. The Buckeye's are dangerous in the return game and can break one open if the Spartans aren't on top of their coverage assignments. But Ohio State hasn't made a Field Goal since the 18th of October (at Penn State), largely because they have not had to.  If the game is tight or if the Bucks are forced to try one late, MSU could have an edge because Jack Willoughby comes into this week "cold." Michael Geiger is on the rise, has made kicks in the past three weeks, and must feel motivated to rectify his critical miss from the Ohio State loss last year.

The winner this week will take total control of the Big Ten East and becomes an odds on favorite for one of the four Playoff spots. The loser, only if it’s extremely close, becomes the top 1-loss or 2-loss team in the country and will be in need of a great performance next week and a small set of miracles to hold out any hope of slipping into the Playoff through the back door. Just as the Buckeyes magical run last year began with a win in this game, if the Spartans are to put together something special over the next couple months it too will start with this game.

The Buckeyes are a heavy favorite playing at home and have earned that respect. “At the end of the day, the road to the Championship game had to go through Ohio State, and then Penn State,” Dantonio laid out last Saturday afternoon. OSU presents the biggest physical challenge in terms of speed and strength that the Spartans have seen all year and make no mistake, MSU is still far from healthy. While MSU may not have a health advantage, they should hold the mental edge.

Ohio State has been the front runner in this sport since they finished their National Championship run last January. They handled a unique Quarterback surplus by sending Braxton Miller out wide and leaving Cardale Jones and a still recovering J.T. Barrett to battle for the starting gig. After Barrett’s leg recovered completely and Jones had been less than spectacular, Meyer made the switch back to Barrett. Then came the bye week and the OVI citation for J.T. Barrett. That had to constitute a major distraction. Soon thereafter, a guilty plea to that charge was entered by the Buckeye Captain. It's not yet clear what that did to this team's chemistry.

Since they haven’t been tested by a team as strong as the Spartans so far this year we’re bound to find out how strong and together the Buckeyes are on Saturday night. If there’s a crack in the Buckeyes bid to repeat as National Champions, chemistry looks like the only potential culprit. If things get tight Saturday evening, chemistry could rise to the surface of Ohio Stadium and end up deciding the winner of the 2015 edition of Michigan State-Ohio State.

While the Spartans came out rusty and suffering from a football hangover last week, any remaining Nebraska residue was wiped out during the course of the Maryland game. When the Spartans woke up Sunday to begin their OSU prep they had to realize that everything they’ve aspired to play for against Ohio State for over nine months now has now arrived before them. Expect the most focused and spirited effort from Spartan Football all year. It will take everything this team’s got left in the tank plus some fortune to get out of Columbus with another win.

It’s all come down to this for Spartan Football. They’ve put together a phenomenal record over the last three seasons and somehow have positioned themselves to play the final weeks of 2015 for a College Football Playoff berth. They know there is no getting to where they want to go without a win this Saturday in the Horse Shoe. If this team can get healthy enough at the positions needed before going into Columbus late Saturday afternoon, they will have finally arrived to a point where they can truly Reach Higher.

@JPSpartan

P.A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. The non four-letter (ESPN) media is starting to catch onto the fact that the College Football Playoff is a business first, competition second. "The committee is cookin the books like Enron,” Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt said on FS1 Tuesday night. What he’s referring to is the positioning of teams in the Playoff poll thus far and the overriding business interests that appear to be taking on a bigger role in the process than expected. You loyal readers will note that we discussed that in this space a few weeks back.
2. If you’re bothered by a handful of 5-7 teams getting Bowl bids this holiday season, you’re trying too hard. Bowl games are simply corporately funded exhibition games that are made for TV. There’s a handful of them that matter and carry some actual clout, but the rest are just exhibition games hopefully in places with nice weather.
3. It's still beyond me how J.T. Barrett could make that kind of off-field mistake at that school given the history of Ohio State Quarterbacks and in-season alcohol related issues. Maybe alcohol should be off limits for the Ohio State Quarterbacks during their playing career. Maybe it will be in the future.