The Outlook Moving Forward: Oregon

Coming off their 37-24 road win over Western Michigan, the Spartans open their home schedule against the Oregon Ducks this Saturday at 8:00 on ABC.

Offense

The opener was a mixed bag for the Spartan Offense. They put up 37 points, about a Touchdown short of their average from 2014, but that made for MSU’s ninth straight game scoring more than 30 points. Connor Cook threw two Touchdown passes, but was not as sharp as you’d hope connecting on only 15 out of 31 attempts. And the running game looked pretty strong, especially considering it was the first of the post Jeremy Langford era. Yet, MSU tallied only tallied 196 yards rushing.

If there was a standout for the Offense it may have been up front. MSU did not allow pressure on Connor Cook while rotating at least seven players through the line. The unit looked to be falling into sync nicely in time for their primetime matchup Saturday night. With time to go through progression, Cook spread the ball around pretty well and Aaron Burbridge led a successful day for the receivers. Seven different Spartans caught passes including DeAnthony Arnett, whose 21-yard Touchdown catch was his first since 2011 when he was a Freshman at Tennessee. There probably couldn’t have been a bigger confidence boost for the Senior that’s travelled a long road between trips to the End Zone. That boost may be what Arnett needs to take the next step in competing for more playing time and targets from Cook.

Josiah Price, a good sized target at 6’4 and 252 pounds, caught three balls on the night and one for a Touchdown, affirming his stature as a potential star Tight End. Price leads a deep and versatile group that includes Jamal Lyles (Jr.),  Paul Lang (Sr.), and Dylan Chmura (So.), and others. Once again, Tight End is a position of strength for Spartan Football under Mark Dantonio. Yet, while MSU may not have gotten all it could out of the NFL level talent it had stacked at that position a handful of years ago, Mark Dantonio and staff sound committed to keeping the Tight Ends right in the thick of their game plans. Look for Dave Warner and Jim Bollman to identify mismatches with their Tight Ends Saturday night because they should be out there.

The Oregon Defense isn’t likely to set any records in 2015. Their main objective, besides trying to get the ball to their Offense as fast as possible, appears to be holding an opponent in a range that their high powered Offense can run with. Oregon had the 31st rated Scoring Defense in the county last year, allowing an average of 23.6 points per game, but was only 62nd against the run giving up 165 yards per game. Against the pass, Oregon struggled big time and ended up 108th in the country, allowing a sizeable 264.3 yards per effort.

Their 2015 opening effort against Eastern Washington was not much better. EWU scored 42 points in defeat and passed for 438 yards on the evening. The Spartans should have an opportunity to move the ball, but of course want to stay as balanced as possible in their attack. Balance can go both ways though, meaning MSU may look for the early down pass to open up the run game. Balance does not have to start with the run, or mean that MSU must stick with it first no matter what until a secondary softens up. Stubbornness and balance do not go hand in hand.

As much as anything, Western was largely a tune up for Oregon and a chance for newcomers like L.J. Scott to get their feet wet. Plus, MSU did not show much of their offensive material at all. It’s not just trick plays that you didn’t see, its formations, lineup combinations, and other different wrinkles that we should see a lot of Saturday night.

Aside from talent, the biggest intangible the Spartans possess is the rare College Quarterback that has a lengthy resume of big game success. Connor Cook has already made more big game throws at big times than just about any Quarterback in school history. He has also been looking forward to getting another shot at Oregon since walking off the field in Eugene a year ago. He knows this is the first of hopefully five supersized national matchups he hopes to play in during 2015.

Look for Cook to be himself and lead what should be a successful night for this Offense. Look for the running game to be secure with the ball and take the next steps into forming their 2015 identity. And keep an eye out for a slant or two from MSU down by the Goal Line. Oregon did not defend them well last week in their opener. If this unit gets into rhythm Saturday night, they should be able to keep up scoring just fine with the Oregon attack.

Defense

Friday night did not produce the dominating Defensive performance Spartan Nation has been fortunate to enjoy often over the past four seasons. “We stopped the run, we sacked the Quarterback…but we gave up too many 3rd Down conversions,” Dantonio summed up to Spartan Radio immediately after the game. At the same time, it’s not like the Defense looked too lost, too confused, or too thin on talent and skill to slow down Oregon. They’ve got a strong foundation to work from and now some valuable experience playing with each other that can only come about through game reps.

To be fair, we may realize later this fall that Western is a pretty good team, and much better team than most thought they were prior to Friday night. If that’s a 9-win Western team that scored 17 on the MSU Defense, it will look much better than if they turn out to be a 5-win team. Beyond that, the communication issues on the back end were among the biggest concerns as the Spartan Dawgs prepare for the speed and slippery moves of Oregon.

Oregon had a dozen plays for over 20-yards last year against MSU. That’s a 12 for those of you unfamiliar with that baking term. Oregon will always have Running Backs that can break one with speed, and Oregon will always be able to complete passes, that is not breaking news. What often determines their success and produces big gains is what they do with the ball after the catch. Specifically, what kind of angles they take, what kind of legal or illegal picks others set for them downfield, and of course what kind of speed they possess. You can bet as the Spartans began their prep, Mark Dantonio and company showed the Defense tape of last year’s Oregon game and the big plays the Ducks busted. The Spartans secondary, including some new faces in new positions, will have to do a lot of things well to keep the Ducks from getting free and loose for a string of big ones again this year.

“You’ve got to keep leverage on the football,” Mark Dantonio told Spartan Nation earlier this week. Leverage and taking good angles on the ball can help a secondary keep a big play from happening or from turning into a scoring play. “You’ve got to keep an edge, and you’ve got to run things inside out at times,” he added. Oregon did damage to MSU over the middle last year, and some experts earlier this week have pointed out that unless MSU adjusts their scheme, they will be vulnerable over the middle again this year. “It (leverage) is magnified (against Oregon) because of the scheme, and then the elite players that they have.”

By the looks of it, the Ducks Vernon Adams (replacing Marcus Mariota) may be another elite Oregon Quarterback. Though he is not the all-time Oregon great wearing number 8 in neon green, he is highly athletic and already familiar with the Oregon offense. In the opener last week he ran for 94 yards on 12 carries before being knocked out by a cheap shot as he slid to complete a run. Before that, he looked a lot like a seasoned Oregon Quarterback in that system that shreds just about every overmatched opponent they play.

Adams is not tall, but looks pretty strong and more durable running the ball than you’d probably expect. Again, he was knocked out of the game after coming up woozy after a blatant cheap shot that earned an ejection and suspension. That being said, Adams has never played anywhere like Spartan Stadium, let alone at night, and has never faced a front four as strong and athletic as he’ll face Saturday night. That combination leaves Adams durability in some doubt heading into Saturday. He’s backed up by Red-Shirt Junior Jeff Lockie, who is 29 for 41 in his career, and has run for 32 yards on 9 total carries. Adams durability appears a must for Oregon to compete.

The Spartan front four rushed and penetrated well last Friday, but Adams is likely to get rid of the ball as fast as possible so he doesn’t have to face the prospect of being chased down by a full sized Spartan Dawg. While MSU got to the QB often and LB Riley Bullough came up with three sacks last week, it seemed like when MSU blitzed they didn’t “get home” too often. That fact along with the style the Ducks play would lend you to think MSU won’t blitz as much from the Linebacker position this week.

MSU played a lot of players on Defense last week and probably didn’t show much of the looks they have to offer on Defense in 2015. Why would you when you’re playing a team you should beat and you have a national showdown with a Pac-12 power coming up the next week? This week we should see a more consistent lineup and hopefully none of the first week jitters, excitement, and communication confusions we saw in week 1. Saturday night a big one for Harlon Barnett, Mike Tressel, and Mark Dantonio, but more importantly it’s a big one for the new era of the Spartan Dawgs.

Special Teams

The most glaring area of concern from last Friday night was the Spartans’ kickoff coverage gaffes. Not once, but twice MSU got torched for big yardage because of poor execution. Western opened the game with a return of about 70 yards on a play that saw MSU’s coverage break down early. It appeared that too many Spartans did not stay in their lanes, providing the opportunity for that big one to be broken.

Their next time off the tee, Broncos’ Darius Phillips went about 100 yards as again MSU’s coverage pretty much fell apart at the seams. For the rest of the night, MSU resorted to squib kicks. Don’t be surprised if you see some new players out to cover kick offs after what happened Friday night. It was absolutely unacceptable for a program that has finished in the Top-5 for the past two seasons and has legitimate hopes of playing for Championships again.

The Spartans returned only one kick off and did not return a punt on Friday. It’s hard to predict how they’ll fare in their first competitive action Saturday night, but all Spartan kick returners have a chance to make an impact on the field position battle. Make no mistake, the Ducks know R.J. Shelton’s moves after his breakout performance in Oregon last year, and they’re probably well aware of Macgarrett Kings’ ability too.

The bright spot of an otherwise worrysome effort from the Special Teams unit came off the foot of Freshman Punter Jake Hartbarger. Hartbarger bombed 4 balls for an average of 47.2 yards, suggesting he’s got more than enough leg and trajectory to punt at a championship level. Saturday night should feel little like last Friday though, so keep an eye on his exchanges and transitions into the kick.

Michael Geiger did not have a great 2014 but has all the tools and now far more experience to take a big step forward in 2015. Last Friday night he got in a chip shot Field Goal to get the year started. Saturday he may be kicking with the season long hopes of the entire Spartan Nation on the line. Kicking Field Goals at the top two levels of this sport is a serious, heavy duty mental and physical experience.

Overall

Nearly a year ago to the day MSU led Oregon 27-18 about mid way through the 3rd Quarter. The Spartans had scored 20 straight points and had the Ducks on their heels, and back against the ropes. They also had the raucous Autzen Stadium crowd out of the game and on serious edge. The pre-game energy fueled by Wolfmother’s “Joker and the Thief” was long gone from the neon green faithful after 20 straight, and Oregon’s National Title hopes looked to be falling with the sun. That’s the reality of where that game was at that point, which has been reported inaccurately ever since by many media outlets, even into this week. (Yes, I’m talking to you ESPN, but thanks again for keeping a close eye on what we’re doing here at Spartan Nation)

Then on the 3rd and long of his career, Mariota was in trouble quick and Autzen was really gasping. As a couple Spartans closed in on the eventual Heisman winner, it looked like MSU was going to get the ball back with a chance to open a critical 3-score lead on Oregon and take a firm step in the process of putting them away. But as Mariota shook lose from Darien Harris and two other Spartan tackling attempts, he turned into Superman all at once and completed a shovel-pass flip to a back that had scrambled free.

The improbable 1st Down came as a shock and disappointment that sticks to MSU to this day. They looked deflated immediately. The out of nowhere conversion completely reignited the petrified Autzen faithful, and flipped a switch inside the Ducks that tore through the game’s final twenty-some minutes. A couple plays later, it was 27-25 MSU. The Ducks scored the final 28 points, but the final score of 46-27 did not do a good job of telling the tale of the 60 minutes the two teams played.

This game has probably been living in the back of the Spartans’ heads since their plane took off from the rare heat of the great northwest that evening. They left Oregon a year ago unhappy with the result, but looking forward to another shot at them later in the year in the College Football Playoff. That matchup never happened, which only adds to the fire that’s been building since that loss. And then there’s the issue of that final Oregon Touchdown, with 1:25 left on the clock.

The final Oregon Touchdown stung the Spartans. We could see in their eyes immediately, and heard if from them after the game. Make no mistake, they have not forgotten that move. Unfortunately, so many people only remember the final score of a game, and will tell you to this day that Oregon blew out MSU last year. That’s got to burn pretty hot inside Spartan Football, and it was unquestionably used against them all last season by pollsters, committees, media, and more.

We know that’s not what happened, the Spartans know that’s not what happened, and be sure the Ducks’ know that’s not what happened either. Hopefully, those that have gotten it wrong for the last year will study their history this week and get it right before kickoff. Saturday night is MSU’s chance to settle that score, and finish the job of beating Oregon.

Now that we’ve accurately looked back at 2014, you get a feeling for where each team is coming from this time. The Spartans should have the clear edge in motivation. This time they have the Senior Heisman candidate, they have the direct path to the College Football Playoff, and they are playing at home in front of color matched crowd, with an added transcontinental score to settle.

MSU has good history with Oregon in Spartan Stadium, not that the season opener from 1999 will have any impact on Saturday’s result outside of maybe providing an extra ounce of motivation during the week. But MSU won’t need to look far at all to get fired up for this one. Among the top reasons that Seniors Connor Cook and Shilique Calhoun came back for 2015 was to finish their business with the Oregon Ducks. “Our M.O. was to try to reach higher (in 2015) and to do that, right now, it runs through Oregon,” Dantonio said earlier this week.

It’s time for this Senior Class to add their next accomplishment to an already impressive legacy with a win over a Top-10 team in Spartan Stadium. “You have to be able to play this game on the verge of a rage,” Mark Dantonio told the Big Ten Network at the media days in late July, quoting a favorite line his from Co-Offensive Coordinator Jim Bollman.  At this point in the program’s development, MSU knows how to pace itself and get the lion riled up during the week, but to keep him in the cage until the clock strikes 8:00 on Saturday night. If that lion comes out on time as expected, the Ducks are going to feel a year’s worth of rage this Saturday night.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. Where are the folks that insisted Braxton Miller was leaving Ohio State? It never made any sense to me that he’d go anywhere else because it was clear he would never be an NFL quality Quarterback. Credit Miller for realizing his best shot to play for a living would come as a Wide Out, and his best chance to prepare a receiver and ball carrier would come right there in Columbus. Unlike many spread QBs that have failed to realize a position change was necessary, Miller seemed to figure it all out before eventually becoming a side show act.
2. Here’s my summary on the evolution of crowd noise inside Spartan Stadium since the late 90s, after they had dropped the field and went to turf: Late 90s turf version was louder than 2000s grass version, but post-scoreboard installation version from 2012 on is as loud or louder than the late 90s turf . The difference after the scoreboards were added was evident immediately from both the field level and stands.
3. If we’re going to start seeing Vegas betting lines on national pre-game shows, let’s also see an actual predictive/competitive betting line. Vegas betting lines are business tools designed first to get a relatively even split of betting money on each side of matchup. A predictive or competitive line is an analysis first, designed to predict which team will win and by how much. They are very different things that too many sports fans get horribly confused. Don’t let your loved ones be fooled any longer.
4. Spartan Football may be fast approaching a point where it can no longer tolerate any incidents that involve alcohol, bad judgment, and bad behavior.