The Outlook Moving Forward: Purdue

Coming off their 30-10 victory over Central Michigan, the Spartans host the Purdue Boilermakers this Saturday at noon on ESPN 2.

Offense

The story of the Offense last Saturday was the loss of Jack Conklin. From the sideline, the Big Ten Network reported that Conklin told the Spartans’ training staff that his knee and leg got twisted around in the 2nd Quarter. That was it for one of the leaders of the line on the day, but he returned to the sideline in golf clothes without any clear indication of a major injury, which was slightly comforting for Spartan Nation. Until we see more of Conklin on the field again, his condition remains the top story as this unit gets into October and looks to find a higher gear.

Many forget how close Connor Cook’s 2014 was to being history just a series into the year after he took a cheap shot to the knee. Luckily, Cook was saved by a brace. Maybe a brace played a role in Conklin avoiding something serious this time around. Now MSU faces the prospect having to replace their steadiest performer on what could become a fantastic Offensive Line, one-third the way through 2015. The good news for this program is that they still have options up front even though they’re currently down two starters. That’s the difference that programmatic depth makes.

The Offensive did not do an incredible job of replacing Conklin last Saturday. In the 2nd Half, the Offense came out flat, could not find a good rhythm, and looked pretty average relative to the standards of the MSU Offense. MSU made a point to run the ball in the 1st Half and did an okay job, but some wondered if they might have made running the ball too big a focus relative towards trying to score points first, work on the running game second.

The Spartan Offense opened the day with a burst, but pretty quickly slid into cruise control, if not a struggle before the big play from Shilique Calhoun that reignited the entire team late. Were any of their struggles related to limiting the Offense against Air Force last week? Hard to say, but how could that have helped? This unit scored 30 again, but put that aside for now because if this team doesn’t find a better rhythm, that streak will be gone in a flash and the concern will be that the MSU Offense is on the decline.

Gerald Holmes late burst of energy proved that maybe the Spartans can rotate three Running Backs during a game. Not to say that should be an every game aspiration, but Holmes’ late spark jumpstarted the Offense to score two Touchdowns in the 4th. Holmes barely saw time against Air Force, but kept ready on the sideline and made the most of his opportunity late against CMU. That’s a credit to Gerald Holmes and a great example for any non-starter. Having three backs that have seen time and made plays in September should benefit MSU going into Big Ten play because as Spartan Nation can currently attest, injuries can happen quick.

Purdue is not a good football team right now, nor do they have a great Defense. Yet, they have consistently presented issues for MSU, especially in Spartan Stadium. The Boilers rank 78th against the run right now, 100th against the pass, and are tied for the 97th ranked Total Defense in the country out of 127 teams. It’s up to the MSU Offense to avoid playing down to the level of their competition this week. They should not look too sluggish or struggle to get going in this Big Ten opener. If they find a rhythm quickly out of the gate, they may end up in position to provide a 1st Half knockout.

Defense

It didn’t start well last Saturday for the new era Spartan Dawgs. Central Michigan moved the ball all over the field on MSU, and most importantly on 3rd Down. Many of those were 3rd and long, which Mark Dantonio confirmed on his postgame radio show “should favor” the MSU Defense. Central was 7-15 for the day on 3rd Down, but far better than that early on. Needless to say, that’s critical stat for defensive success.

The Chips’ 10-point total for the day did not tell the complete story of the success they had moving the ball. You could make an argument that no opponent in the Dantonio era did a better job of moving the ball against MSU with less total points to show for it. Without Riley Bullough and Joel Heath, MSU was down four starters on Defense and it showed. Central was down 17-7 at the Half, but the game should have pretty even, and missing that many starters did not excuse the amount of tackles MSU missed.

With Bullough back on the field, MSU became more stable and stingy 2nd Half though Central Michigan did move the ball pretty well and with confidence early. When R.J. Williamson got hurt on the sideline, a worried feeling hit the pit of Spartan Nation’s collective stomach. From a broad perspective, any more injuries to the Defense will bring less experience onto the field, increasing the probability that the Defense will give up more big plays.

As Dantonio said after that game, however, credit Chippewa Quarterback and mid-Michigan native Cooper Rush for an outstanding performance last Saturday. Though it will be tough for the Chips to fire up emotionally to the level they brought to East Lansing last Saturday, if they can, that Offense will have some real success during MAC play. Morris Watts, Central’s Offensive Coordinator so familiar to Spartan Nation, arguably out coached MSU’s “new” Defensive Coordinators last Saturday, but just could not put points up on the board or get any help from the kicking game to make the score closer.

What may concern the Spartans most about last week was how soft the unit’s back end looked. Too many Defensive Backs looked timid, too many tackles were missed, and too much green space appeared between Chippewa receivers and MSU coverage. MSU may have felt some real pressure last week if not for the effort and leadership of Shilique Calhoun.

Calhoun showed up when his team needed him most by sacking Central’s Quarterback on a 3rd Down in the 3rd Quarter. That play changed the Spartans’ energy of the day. If immediately flipped a switch and got the sideline going again. The Offense took the ball back down for a score after that 4th Down Punt, and on the following drive Riley Bullough jumped on the Chippewa fumble to practically put the game on ice. The difference between MSU before that Calhoun sack, especially in the 2nd Half, and after it, was crystal clear.

Purdue has Quarterback problems, again, but they rank in the 60s in both Total Offense and Scoring Offense. While they may not look as crisp and effective as Central was last week, they should not be completely inept. More importantly for this unit, they have to work on themselves. Coming out of September, this Defense does not look as strong as expected, their Defensive Line play is not yet as dominant as they can be, and the back end of this unit looks loose and in need of a clear leader.

We didn’t know quite what to expect from the Narduzzi-less Spartan Dawgs. After four games we’ve seen flashes of brilliance, another Bullough establishing himself as the leader in the middle, and a heap of missed tackles and big plays pointing to the secondary as the soft spot of the football team. MSU ranks 107th against the pass going into Big Ten play, 32nd against the rush, and fields the 77th ranked Total Defense beginning Big Ten play. October should indicate whether these Spartan Dawgs have what it takes to compete for the championships they covet in December and January. Spartan Football will not get there without better play from the Defense.

Special Teams

This unit looked fantastic Saturday, and not much like the players that lined up for MSU earlier in September. For nearly 60 minutes, the Special Teams unit looked focused and much more confident in what they were doing covering kicks, blocking kicks, making kicks, and more. Only a fluke Extra Point miss near the end of the game went askew.

It’s rare that a team blocks two Field Goals in one game, and though the Central Kicker may have had elevation issues Saturday, Field Goals do not block themselves. As well as Central moved the ball, it was that much bigger than MSU blocked not only one, but both of those Field Goal attempts. MSU looks like it’s got a much better handle on who they want lining up and how to execute relative to early September. That’s a sign of much needed progress.

Michael Geiger needed to get back on track and took the first steps in that direction by making a 47-yarder in the 1st Half. Given the injuries and inconsistency of the Defense right now, and the injury issues currently threatening the Spartan Offense, Geiger is probably going to be more valuable in October than Spartan Nation figured he’d be at the start of Fall Camp.

Going for his 99th Extra Point in a row, Geiger’s try was blocked by a fine Chippewa effort. Needless to say that was an oddity, but there’s probably no reason to be overly concerned with Geiger’s effort on that play. Yet, given the shaky Special Teams play before last week, do not expect Mark Dantonio and Mark Snyder to let that thing slide this week without due attention. Another strong showing this week will boost MSU’s confidence that their shaky Special Teams days are behind them.

Overall

September rankings can be deceiving. Often they’re not very predictive of a College Football season’s final results because the teams playing best from November through the Bowl season are still developing their identity as the Summer chills into Fall. October brings about conference play, rivalry matchups, and the sorting out of pretenders and contenders. Right now the Big Ten has two national contenders that are proven because they both come off two excellent prior seasons, and carried undefeated records through non-conference play. Yet, both teams, like many ranked beneath them, have pretty good sized question marks to address.

MSU cannot afford any more injuries right now. They’re down two starters on Defense, and almost lost a couple more starters in the last two weeks when you look at Joel Heath sitting out, Josiah Price twisting an ankle late against Central, R.J. Williamson going down in that game too, and Lawrence Thomas getting banged up late against Air Force. It’s a fine, fine line at the very top of this sport. If you think MSU can afford the long term loss of Jack Conklin or yet another starter and still have a great shot at making the College Football Playoff, you’ve likely taken in too much green Kool-Aid.

If MSU can get healthy from here, they should begin to find their stride in October. Opening with Purdue and then going to Rutgers is a pretty good way to ease into Big Ten play. That’s not to say either contest will be a cake walk, but MSU got a great effort from Central and all they could handle from Oregon.  They started on the road to Western, and also had to make it through the systematic challenge that is Air Force. “Thought this was the toughest out of conference schedule we had in my nine years here,” Dantonio said earlier this week. He was right. Big Ten play will be far more familiar for the Spartans to prepare for. This team can take flight in October if they can find health and keep the energy grasped after the Calhoun sack that sparked the late effort against Central.

Purdue should bring another level of focus from the Spartans because we’re talking about Big Ten play. As bad as Purdue has been in recent years, they somehow played MSU tough last year. As Spartan Nation knows, Purdue has quite the history of pulling out some black and gold magic in Spartan Stadium. MSU needs to come out with the kind of energy discovered late last week, stay healthy, and simply get on the board in Big Ten play.

If Spartan Football can stay focused on the task at hand and mute out the national noise around them that’s going to build, week by week, through October, they will get to the opportunities they’ve been working to play for as a program for many years now. If they lose focus or get overwhelmed by injuries, an unfortunate slip up is not out of the question. With all of that in mind, do not expect the Spartans to overlook anyone in October, and certainly not Purdue.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. As the Spartan Offense has become one the better in the county, Dave Warner and Jim Bollman have proved the Co-Coordinator thing can actually work out pretty well. But how much longer can MSU hold onto them? Bollman may be too close to retirement to have much interest in taking on all that comes with being a Head Coach, but if Dave Warner wants a shot at being a Head Coach you would have to think that his time may be coming very soon.
2. Ravens v. Steelers is still the best rivalry in the NFL. It was without question the top rivalry in professional sports for many years, and may still be today. The matchup is far too good to play on a Thursday night when neither team will really have practiced for it, and may not be fully healed up from their efforts the prior Sunday. There seems to be a consensus that Thursday Night Football comes too soon for the teams asked to line up. The right move for the NFL is to get that game to Friday night as soon as possible. Player safety, right shield?
3. The Top Four I have coming out of September: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Michigan State, UCLA. Odds are pretty good that half of them will not make the October list.
4. It’s been too long since the Spartan Chariot came was part of the pre-game festivities at Spartan Stadium. Aside from any other entertainment changes that could be made to the Spartan Stadium game day experience, can we see the chariot taking the field for a lap or two again sometime soon?