The Outlook Moving Forward: Rutgers

Coming off their 24-21 victory over Purdue, the Spartans travel to Rutgers to take on the Scarlet Knights at 8:00 on the Big Ten Network.

Offense

This unit was on the way to their best performance of 2015 until late in the 2nd Quarter when Offensive Lineman Dennis Finley went down with a broken leg. The Spartans somberly went into the Half, and the Offense never really got going again against Purdue. As MSU struggled early deeper into the 3rd Quarter, many wondered when Gerald Holmes would be inserted to provide a burst of energy as he had against CMU the week prior. Yet, Holmes never carried the ball against Purdue, and the Offense scored only three points in the 2nd Half. It was a rough 30 minutes in rough playing conditions.

An ugly day of weather or not, the Offense struggled pretty hard in the 2nd Half. Another injury to the Offensive Line or not, Purdue is a bad Defense. They were bad before Saturday, should be bad the remainder of the year, and the Spartans’ 3-point output in the 2nd Half was probably the main reason MSU slipped in the national polls this week. When pollsters contrasted the 2nd Half slow down with the 1st Half success, they ended up concerned. Remember, most of them wouldn’t know about the weather or the injury to Finley because they’re only watching select highlights.

MSU didn’t struggle on Offense Saturday because of Purdue, they struggled because they lost their edge coming out of the Half, seemed to flip the switch “off,” and their Coaches were not able to effectively snap them back into rhythm. Concerns for this Offense have been building in the past couple weeks because of the loss of starters on the Offensive Line, and Saturday Josiah Price was also, and notably, unable to go. If you take three starters off any of the top Offenses in College Football, production is going to suffer.

Anytime an Offense struggles, fans get ants in their pants about it. They point to play calling, to the wrong guys getting playing time, or the players looking uninspired. That kind of talk happens everywhere in College Football, as in all over the country. Yet, Michigan State runs the Wide Receiver sweep with R.J. Shelton so often, it leaves you wondering what the end game is with that play call again and again. Maybe they’re setting up something big for one of the monster games left on the season’s schedule. We’ll have to wait and see, stay tuned on that one.

The Spartans made a point to run the ball last Saturday and carried it for 267 yards, but did it at home against Purdue. Like it or not, you’re not going to get much credit as an Offense for that performance against that team. But if Kodi Kieler and Jack Conklin are not back to full strength in time for Michigan next Saturday, the decision to run it 47 times against Purdue may look quite wise. Should the Spartans be down three lineman from the playing group (Finley obviously out for the year), the new look line will have benefitted significantly from so many reps against Purdue, plus whatever sizeable number they run at Rutgers. Balance will be nearly a necessity against the better teams left on MSU’s schedule.

As the loyal readers of Spartan Nation know, Mark Dantonio has said since he arrived back to campus that the ultimate stat to judge a Quarterback by is his win-loss record. “Quarterbacks are paid (in the NFL), and play to win games. That’s the bottom line,” Dantonio said about Cook after the Purdue win, before walking off the field. The winningest Quarterback in Michigan State Football history honestly came about as a surprise. That’s not a knock on Cook, since every other Quarterback in Michigan State history is not the all-time wins king, it’s a credit to his development and quiet persistence to prove all the people and teams that overlooked him to be dead wrong. Make no mistake, a lot of people missed on Connor Cook, big time. And he’s a long way from being done winning in Green and White.

After the win over Purdue, MSU ranks 56th in the country in Rushing Offense, 92nd in Passing Offense, and 86th in Total Offense out of 127 ranked teams. They’re now tied for 51st in Scoring Offense. Though they have played tougher competition, this is far from the Offense we’ve seen over most of the past two years right now. To throw out a race car driving analogy, they seem to be stuck in third gear right now. This week at Rutgers, they will have the opportunity to display that they’re headed into a higher gear. Rutgers is 78th in Total Defense, but only 58th in Scoring Defense, giving up an average of just 23.0 points per game. Going on the road may be just what this Offense needs to break out into that higher gear again. They do not want to head into a rivalry week struggling to score against another average-at-best opponent. Look for the Offense to find some momentum in the garden state.

Defense

On a 3rd and 9, trying to hold on to their 24-21, Montae Nicholson had an opportunity to end the tough 2nd Half for the Defense and close Purdue out for good. Yet, facing Boilermaker Quarterback David Blough one on one, Nicholson was beaten by him with ease as the Boilermaker QB offered up his best Antwaan Randle-El impersonation. Four plays later, Purdue got a Pass Interference call on that 4th and 6 to extend the final drive. Though the Boilermakers would stall out for good after the next 4th and 9 fell short, the Spartans Defense did not perform very well last Saturday in the 2nd Half. They did enough to survive and advance, but do have some issues of concern.

Purdue ran for 165 yards last Saturday, yet only threw for 136. They scored just 21-points, so it’s not as if the new era Spartan Dawgs had an awful day. MSU looked a bit soft and a little confused in the secondary, again. The secondary has to firm up for MSU to avoid giving up the big plays that hurt them in 2014 and have already popped up in 2015. Hopefully the back end is done with injuries for 2015 so they can mold into a consistent and strengthening playing group throughout early Big Ten play.

Rutgers is not only a program in disorder right now, they’re an Offense that’s a bit of a mess. Semi-retired is Ralph Friedgen, last year’s Offensive Coordinator, who decided all the travel and leg work that comes with being an Offensive Coordinator at Rutgers was no longer tenable. Though he serves as a consultant in 2015, it’s hard to know what kind of influence he has on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers ranks 46th in the county in Total Offense, 67th in Passing Offense, 52nd in Scoring Offense, and 27th in Rushing Offense going into Saturday night. Considering all that’s gone on this season, those aren’t as bad as they could be.

This long week provides another opportunity for the MSU Defense to get on track, but doing so minus another starter (R.J. Williamson) will not be easy. As discussed in this article as recently as last week, MSU is really starting to thin out, especially experience wise, due to injury. Now down three starters, this unit should display its talented depth, but it is significantly lighter on experience given the players they’ve lost. The unit has looked both good and ugly at times so far. With the losses to their starters, you would have to expect some additional ups and downs from the 2015 Defense until at least the lineup settles down for good.

Special Teams

This unit may be up and down all season long, though hopefully their wildest days are behind them. Last week Michael Geiger missed from 35-yards, but made a second attempt from 30 yards later. Those 3-points ended up being the difference and the only points from MSU’s 2nd Half efforts. “I just want guys to be aggressive, I just want guys to play through things,” Dantonio said about Geiger’s performance on his post game radio show.

Jake Hartbarger got more work than expected in the 2nd Half. After the weather got rather raw, he fumbled a punt that Purdue ultimately recovered. That recovery sparked yet another Boilermakers’ comeback effort at Spartan Stadium. There’s some black and gold magic permanently hidden somewhere in the turf out there, you have to think. It was a bad time for Hartbarger’s first big mistake of 2015, but he’s probably got the best punting leg of the Mark Dantonio era to date.

Kick coverage appears to have ironed itself out, but they will have their hands full with the Scarlet Knights Janarion Grant this week. Grant already has returned both a kickoff and punt return for a touchdown in 2015. A better performance in New Jersey would be a step towards the kind of stability needed from this unit as we head towards mid-season.

Overall

“Iowa Flat” is a term that some Spartan Nation readers may remember. This writer coined the term after arguably the worst loss in the Mark Dantonio era, the 2012 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa went 4-8 that year, with only 2 other wins against Division 1 opponents. That was a game that should’ve never been anywhere close to a game of inches because Iowa was pretty darn awful. Michigan State came out “Iowa Flat” in the 2nd Half last Saturday, which almost cost them everything they hoped to play for in 2015.

Maybe they came out flat because they “cut the switch” at the Half. The Spartans appeared to “cut the switch” too early last year against Nebraska, and boy did it almost bite them big time. As a frame of reference for those new to The Outlook, you cannot safely ease up on any opponent in College Football until you are at least 4 scores ahead. That means you are up at least 25 points. The amount of possessions and game clock time it takes to score four times makes the likelihood of coming back from that sized deficit highly unlikely and practically impossible.

Did MSU not learn their lesson from Nebraska last season that the “switch” goes only one way? College teams can flip it on or cut it off, but cannot expect flip them both ways in one game. Just look at the Cotton Bowl from last year, for example. It just does not happen. And while it’s easy to understand that MSU may have been emotionally crushed by the loss of another Offensive Lineman for the second straight week, this time looking immediately serious and season ending, that’s not an excuse for coming out “Iowa Flat” in the 2nd Half, and you’ve got to be really careful about flipping the switch off too soon.

Since the players came out of the Half flat, the Coaches might have needed to do more to snap them out of it. Last week, that spark came from Shilique Calhoun and then Gerald Holmes. Saturday against Purdue, there was no spark and strangely no Running Back work for Holmes.

We saw Holmes on Special Teams, but why didn’t he get a chance to energize the Offense against the 97th ranked Defense in the country? It’s not like either L.J. Scott or Madre London was burning it up in the 2nd Half, though they had decent days. More importantly, MSU needed a jolt of fresh energy more than they needed another handful of carries for either of the other two backs.

It’s not clear whether we can credit Purdue too much for what happened Saturday. They were down 21-0 at Half, and should be 1-7 before their next chance to win a game in 2015. Saturday was about what the Spartans did not do to put away another overmatched opponent that never should’ve had a sniff of crushing the hopes of their season. That’s a trend that’s threatening to haunt MSU in its current pursuit of a National Championship.

Rutgers is not a great football team. Rutgers is a football program in serious turmoil. Will Greg Schiano come back to Piscataway after this year to try and right the ship, now that Rutgers is in a major conference?  Or will Schiano and his PR assistance try to wait out James Franklin at Penn State, or maybe sniff around the huge upside that Maryland’s program has (think Under Armour). Rutgers Head Coach (for now) Kyle Flood remains suspended until after Saturday’s game. Who knows what kind of crowd the Knights will draw for the 8:00 kick. Surely, there will be a lot of Green and White from the tri-state area, but there might also may be extra inspiration from the Scarlet Knights in knowing their Head Coach is about to return.

The Spartans need to play like the # 2 team in the country the next two weeks. If they do, they’ll probably return to that ranking before their bye-week at the end of the month. But in many ways, Michigan State has more work to do after four games than Spartan Nation expected. They have serious issues in the back end of the Defense, they have an Offense that is far from dominant, and they have nowhere near a top level Special Teams unit. After Saturday’s sloppy performance against Purdue, expect everyone and their brother to bet MSU will lose before the end of October. At the same time, Michigan State is ranked #4 in the AP poll heading into week 6 of the 2015 season. It’s a funny game, isn’t’ it? Perspective and expectations rule the first few months of College Football more than they probably should.

In the past Michigan State has played better on the road under Mark Dantonio than at home. Dantonio has said that his teams have achieved a tighter focus away from the distractions that come about with being at home. Perhaps this long week of preparation for an 8:00 kick at Rutgers will benefit a team that needs to start galvanizing its identity and tightening up its loose ends. This is not the week MSU wants to peak, but it is a week they need to play better than they have in the last two games.

Last Saturday was a loud warning to the 2015 Spartans that their ranking and past success are no guarantee that they will ascend to the College Football Playoff this year just by showing up. If they did not hear that warning loud and clear, they are bound for a stunning and bitter disappointment to come. Purdue had them 4-points away from being out of the Playoff discussion all together. Saturday night they can show the nation that their slip and slide slop fest against Purdue did get their attention, and that Spartan Football will always respond after a disappointing performance.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. Jim Harbaugh was fired by the 49ers last year, took over at his alma mater Michigan this year, and is now going to bolt next year for the Colts, Dolphins, or another NFL team? That doesn’t make much sense, but get used to the annual “Harbaugh to the NFL” talk that should start each year around the middle of October.
2. Out my Top 4 from September (OSU, Ole Miss, MSU, UCLA) posted last week, I mentioned that half of that may be history by the end of October. Ole Miss and UCLA didn’t make it 7 days and the other two barely survived. What a sport.
3. The firing of Miami Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin looked only a matter of time after viewing the first few minutes of him on HBO’s Hard Knocks in 2012. Philbin may have a fine football mind, but never seemed a good fit as a Head Coach. His dismissal and the unpredictable nature of Dolphins owner Jeff Ross will jump start the coaching carousel chatter that usually gets cooking hot after Thanksgiving. Get ready for some wild hypotheticals and ideas from the minds of America’s football fans.
4. Michigan State Football was wise to pass on a “Hard Knocks” type show in 2015. The timing and trajectory of the program did not need that kind of extra distraction this year. They had more to lose from that kind of venture than they had to gain. They should not say “no” next time it’s offered, however, even if that’s next year. Timing is everything, even in Football Television productions.