The Outlook Moving Forward: Western Michigan

Coming off their Cotton Bowl Championship and second straight Top 5 season ranking, the Spartans open 2015 in Kalamazoo against the Western Michigan Broncos this Friday at 7:00 on ESPNU.

Offense

The Spartan Offense exploded in 2014 behind the best Offensive Line of the Mark Dantonio era so far. MSU produced the 11th ranked Total Offense in the nation and 7th best scoring attack in the land. But top skill position producers Jeremy Langford (sneaky fast, sneaky strong) and Tony Lippett are off to the NFL, and it’s far from clear who will take their place. That leaves this Offense with some pretty big question marks, but with those come enormous opportunities.

The Spartans return the most important positions to try and keep pace with their 2014 output, Quarterback and Offensive Line. As Connor Cook strives to be more consistent and accurate, he should have plenty of time behind a line looking to establish itself as one of the best in country. Long gone are the days of the Spartans only going five deep up front, or preferring just to focus on five. That philosophy seemed flawed at the time, and has probably been confirmed as much ever since as the Spartans’ line play has gone from average to top notch. A pair of Jack’s (Jack Allen, Jack Conklin) lead this group that wants to punish opponents from the snap, through the whistle. As they go, the team’s Offense production should follow.

The loss of Langford has been underrated since January and will probably be overlooked in the long run because MSU is unlikely to struggle rushing the ball this year. There’s probably more talent capable of carrying the rock this year than there are snaps available for every guy to show all he can do. Mark Dantonio has tried to find and stick with the “hot hand” since he took the reins at MSU. There’s no reason to expect that will change in 2015, but perhaps we’ll see a more dedicated effort to get more than two Running Backs involved.

With Delton Williams playing status now cleared up, the focus should turn to what kind of Junior season the 225-pounder will have. Too often last year, MSU failed to utilize Williams’ strength when the situation of the game called for it. He looks and can play the part of a power back capable of getting tough yards in between the Tackles. In 2015 Spartan Nation hopes to see Williams on the field in those situations rather than accidentally stuck on the sideline, unless he is Red-Shirted in 2014, which is still a theoretical option.

It will be interesting to see what adjustments Offensive Coordinators Warner and Bollman will make in 2015 so no Running Back is accidentally left out as Williams apparently was last year. If the Spartans do a better job of rotating backs in and out of each game, they should improve upon their 235.2 yards per game average of 2014. It should be a lot of fun to watch this playing group take shape with new names like Madre London and L.J. Scott battling for carries with Williams and others behind such a powerful and proficient line.

Though Tennessee and a couple other programs are trying to snag the title “Wide Receiver U” from Michigan State, the Spartans are set to make a strong case to carry that title into the latter part of this decade. Don’t tell that to Athlon Sports though. In their list of the top 35 Wide Receiver groups in the country, MSU was not named. Yet, the Spartans should again go about six-deep, and it’s a pretty safe bet that a player or two will break out to lead pack.

R.J. Shelton burst onto the scene last fall as a top playmaking threat as he ran away from Oregon defenders. Aaron Burbridge was offered by just about every major program in the country, and DeAnthony Arnett was once a 5-star, can’t miss kid, that’s yet to live up to that rating. Then there’s Macgarrett Kings, who’s been a favorite target of Connor Cook in the past. If anything, MSU is probably too deep at Wide Out to get the most out of each individual in the playing group. Again, what a nice problem to have.

It’s also helpful when the most important position on the field is accounted for with a Quarterback, a very motivated Quarterback, looking to finish his career as arguably the most decorated in school history. With Cook leading the way, the Offense is stocked with enough firepower to give the 43-points per game average earned in 2014 a serious run. Expect this unit to get into rhythm early, often, but also to be tested in the biggest games of the season as they’ve been in the recent past.

In coming weeks we’ll talk more about the Spartans depth and talent at Tight End (among the best in the league), the future of the Quarterback position beyond Connor Cook, and dig deeper into the abundance of talent and skill on this side of the ball. Heading into Western, however, look for MSU to score early, score often, and to establish a good rhythm with the starters for decent amount of time. After that, if MSU can get up more than four scores (aka 33-points) or so, we should see a heap of new faces on the field to get that invaluable game experience Mark Dantonio covets for the long term strength of his program. As that transition takes place Friday night, thoughts of revenge opportunity # 1 against Oregon may begin to set in for those who are done for the night.

Defense

Pat Narduzzi is gone. At some point a broadcaster might remind you of that Friday night, next week, and probably all year long. Yet, the Spartan Dawgs of 2015 return the great majority of a unit that let up an average of 21.5-points per game in 2014. MSU featured the 8th ranked Total Defense last year, and top Rushing Defense in the nation giving up an average of just 3.17 yards-per-rush, and 88.2 a game. Not bad numbers considering they played at Oregon, against Ohio State (with J.T. Barret, since distinction is necessary), and essentially at Baylor.  If you’re looking for a baseline to measure this Defense by as they try to survive the loss of Narduzzi, look at the rushing statistics. As long as those numbers remain really good, the Defense played in the 48824 zip code will stay really good.

MSU has never been as strong and deep up front, at least in the modern era of College Football. Spartan Nation can’t wait to see how Shilique Calhoun responds to some pre-season praise, but also some snubs from “experts” that don’t believe he is among the nation’s very best. Lawrence Thomas, Malik McDowell, and a handful of others should set MSU up for another dominant Defensive season. Lately, MSU’s best defenders have been at other positions, but going into 2015 it looks like the best playing group is at the point of attack.

With so much talent up front it’s hard to pick a new name to keep an eye on up there. But keep an eye on Montez Sweat, another Georgia Peach the Spartans picked out of SEC country, who one day may pick up a game check on Sundays. Sweat has the physical frame of an NFL player, but does he have the “want to” and Football IQ to match? 2015 will begin to tell the tale as he competes for playing time up front with more than a few future NFL talents.

Yes, the loss of Ed Davis will show up at some point. Whether it costs MSU a game or keeps one tighter than it otherwise would’ve been, his absence will stand out at some point. But there is so much talent around the other 10-positions on the field and so much quality depth to fill in for Davis, it’s not like the entire unit is bound to fall apart. Mike Tressel expects a lot from this Linebacker group, even without Davis, because it’s outfitted with solid athletes across the board and players that understand the Spartans’ system. Guys like Jon Reschke and Chris Frey are hungry to make a contribution to the new era of the Spartan Dawgs, and their time beings Friday night.

On the back end, standards are extremely high because MSU has produced a 1st Round Corner in back to back NFL Drafts. Western gives this playing group a needed chance to iron out their in-game communications before they face the fleet footed Ducks in Week 2. Expect to see guys like Demetrious Cox moving around in the secondary, and maybe some new faces lining up early in 2015 so Mark Dantonio and staff can get a good feel for which lineup fits together best. We know the Corner Backs will be “put on an island” in this scheme, what we don’t yet know is how this group will handle that pressure under the spotlight of competing for championships in 2015.

The Spartans can survive the loss of Ed Davis for 2015, and maybe even another significant loss on Defense if adversity should strike again during the season. That’s how strong and deep Spartan Football is in 2015. Most programs in the country cannot handle much attrition. MSU is currently an exception. And while big plays on the back end may have doomed MSU’s National Championship hopes in 2014, maybe big plays made by the MSU back end might lead the push for one in 2015. They say the Dawgs are good and hungry for 2015, now let’s see how they come out together to eat.

This Friday at Western look for a lot of sacks, a lot of energy, and a whole lotof different jerseys in Green and White to line up for a unit that aspires for another championship level effort in 2015. They’ll need to shake off any jitters and rust Friday night because a championship level performance will be needed as soon as next Saturday night.

Special Teams

Mark Dantonio has preached the importance of this unit since taking over at MSU, and makes it a priority by regularly sending starters out for these plays. Special Teams left quite the legacy in the Cotton Bowl comeback last New Year’s Day. The big plays they made (blocked field goal by Marcus Rush and the onsides kick recovery) weren’t as flashy as a long Touchdown kick return, but were so very effective. Many Special Teams contributors return for 2015, but there is also uncertainty in the air.

Kevin Cronin and Michael Geiger return to kick the ball, each looking for better seasons than they had in 2015, but Punter Mike Sadler finally ran out of eligibility, which leaves a unique set of shoes to fill. Red-Shirt Freshman Jake Hartbarger has been groomed to take over, but you never really know how a Punter is going to perform until you see him in game action. Hartbarger will be looking to lose any first-game jitters Friday night, because he could play a key role next Saturday on the national stage. While you cannot chase a National Championship leading from the Punter position, there may come a time where a Punt helps decide a game on the 2015 schedule.

The Spartans have plenty of options to return kicks and punts, but it will be interesting to see who gets the nod. R.J. Shelton has done some work returning kicks before, and features the game breaking speed that creates a home-run threat every time he touches the ball. But Dantonio and staff may not want to tire out Shelton or Kings by returning a bunch of kicks. So there may be an opportunity for a currently unknown player to make a name for himself.

There’s an old saying that “the Devil is in the details.” The football equivalent to that saying might lie in the Special Teams. There are not many great College Football teams with substandard Special Teams. If MSU is going to make a run at another Big Ten Championship, let alone National Championship, they will need to be solid or better, and avoid the kind of big Special Teams gaffe that can swing a big game the wrong way. MSU pretty much knows what to expect out of their Offense and Defense coming into 2015, the Special Teams unit is clearly the seasons’ wild card at the start.

Overall

These are golden days of Michigan State Football. The once national power and household name has returned again to the forefront of the sport, perhaps to stay for a good long while. Gone now are the notions that MSU was another flash in the pan that just benefited from an easy schedule and a couple timely wins. That’s what happens when you back up a Rose Bowl Championship with a Cotton Bowl Championship (on the road) over another Top 5 opponent.

Those results are the reality of Spartan Football as we kick off 2015. The fans and followers of this sport across the country know the Spartans’ brand of play, and judge the program by what they’ve done on the field, not by what any media or scribe tries to present them to be. Not only do they know how MSU plays the game, the College Football world also knows what kind of talent Spartan Football has coming back for 2015.

MSU has loaded up for another championship run in 2015, which did not come about over night or by accident. Mark Dantonio and staff have identified and developed talent at a top level for years now in East Lansing. That’s how this program was built to last, and why it's set up for big things as we close out the decade. As long as the Spartans continue refining what they’ve done for nine years now under Dantonio, they will be competing for championships for the foreseeable future.

The 2015 Spartans should be mature enough to know that their best effort is needed on a week by week basis, for all 60 minutes, in order to accomplish their lofty goals. Friday night they’ll take their first steps on a journey they hope ends with another Bowl Championship.  It promises to be a long season with the great game's ups and downs, and twists and turns, but Spartan Football has never been more prepared to Reach Higher.

@JPSpartan

P. A. T. (Perhaps Another Thought…)

1. MSU may have done Connor Cook a favor by not naming him a Captain. By virtue of being the Quarterback on a Top 5 team, he’s already in a primary leadership position by default. There’s no way around that, not even if you’re running the “spread.” Why add any potential extra pressure by giving him a “C”? There was no great upside to naming Cook a Captain, but potentially a downside if something went askew during the year. MSU may have found something that others will follow in the future. And no, it did not seem like Cook complained about it to the media.
2. If you’re a High School Quarterback prospect and believe you have a legitimate shot to play in the NFL one day, you should stay as far away from a Spread Offense in College as you can or forget about having success as a Quarterback in the NFL.  The odds of NFL success keep getting worse and worse for the “Spread College Quarterback.” See Robert Griffin, III
3. I’m a huge Le’Veon Bell fan, but I’m worried as he starts 2015. He seems on the edge of over-hyping himself too much before he’s done enough to match it on the field. (Let Griffin be a warning to any upstart NFL star that a fast rising star can crash and burn fast) I’m leery of the apparent attempt to gloss himself “Juice.” (Has it ever worked out that well when a player tried to give himself a nickname?) And I’m concerned based on all the glamour shots we’ve seen of him this summer, that Bell might be too thin. (Remember how thin Le’Bron James got before the last NBA season? That went bad so fast that James gained the needed weight back pretty fast and then had another great season) The entire Spartan Nation is pulling for Le’Veon this year, hopefully he will prove my concerns dead wrong.

Big Ten Predictions

East Division

Ohio State (12-0, Big Ten Champions, CFB Playoff)

No program in America fell further than the Buckeyes from kickoff of the 2013 Big Ten Championship game through Labor Day weekend of 2014. But no program bounced back and powered through adversity like Ohio State, all the way through the National Championship game. What an all-time amazing turnaround. Most of that team returns, but will they be as hungry, as resilient, or as fortunate? Probably not, but they should still be good enough to return to the CFB Final Four.

Michigan State (11-1, CFB Playoff)

It looks too perfect, MSU gets revenge versus Oregon in September, revenge at Ohio State in November, and into the CFB Playoff as a favorite they go. In reality, if either Ohio St. or Michigan St. loses only the “Game of the Year” in Columbus, that 1-loss team should have a seat in the CFB Playoff. Look for MSU and OSU to be slotted on opposite sides of the Playoff bracket setting up a potential MSU-OSU National Championship Game.

Penn State (8-4)

It still bothers many people across the country that the culture of Penn State Football was not punished for the brutal crimes that were committed during the Joe Paterno era. Putting that aside, this program is still thin in key spots, and until proven otherwise is primarily running on marketing hype. QB Christian Hackenberg is either a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick or the next major QB prospect that fizzled out fast. 2015 should determine that.

Michigan (8-4)

Their 2015 record should follow their success against the state of Utah. Michigan may not be favored in either the opener at Utah, or late September date with BYU, but they will have a shot to win both. On the plus side for the Blue, their disastrous turnover margin of 2014 is unlikely to be repeated this year, if not ever.  Also, most new Head Coaches never get a better “buy in” than in year one, which usually means an extra win or two more than you’d expect.

Maryland (5-7)

Like Rutgers, they are seasons away from being able to compete up front in the East. Unlike Rutgers, they have perhaps the closest thing to Phil Knight backing their program, with solid plans in place to bring top flight facilities to College Park. Maryland has a shot to become really competitive around 2020, but I’m not yet sold that Randy Edsall is the guy that can do it.

Indiana (4-8)

This program needs better luck, better health, and a better Defense. At some point, Kevin Wilson’s contract might come up for extension.  He’s yet to give them a really good reason to extend it.

Rutgers (4-8)

It should take Rutgers at least three more seasons to be able to compete with the league’s best up front, in the trenches. Their biggest off season move was the semi-retirement of Offensive Coordinator Ralph Friedgen. Now they’ve got an academic issue with their Head Coach that’s become another distraction, which can either galvanize or splinter their football team.

West Division

Nebraska (9-3, Big Ten West Champions)

Mike Riley arrives in Lincoln with the task of reforming a once proud national program that’s struggled with the modern day expansion of College Football. Where there used to be just a few programs that could compete at a national level, now there’s close to 50 in the mix at the top level of the sport. Riley should not take long molding the reasonably high talent level at Lincoln into a regular Big Ten West contender.

Wisconsin (8-4)

At some point too many changes at Head Coach will catch up to a program. That may not happen in Madison this year, but the process has already begun in Mad Town. It would not be fair to expect Wisconsin Football to sink to the lowest levels experienced in the pre-Alvarez era, but it may be a very long time till Wisconsin wins a Rose Bowl again.

Iowa (8-4)

There were rumblings out of Iowa City that a change at the top may be needed after 2014 as Iowa prepared to open their brand new football facility. Kirk Ferentz survived for now, but major changes at the University are coming, and are often followed by a shift in the Athletic Department. If Ferentz’s attempt to “shake up” his Hawks doesn’t take hold, they may not get past Iowa State or Pitt in September. If there are too many stumbles for a soft schedule to make up for, Hawkeye fans may begin pleading for Bob Stoops or Brett Bielema to come on home before all the leaves have fallen.

Minnesota (7-5)

Improving program that some will speculate has just peaked under Jerry Kill. Goldy has a tough non-conference slate hosting TCU and going to Colorado State. Though they’re in the weak Big Ten West, they travel to Ohio State to being November. Making a Bowl would be progress for the Gophers, winning it would be the next step forward.

Northwestern (4-8)

How far have the Wildcats fallen since a couple key 3rd Downs when they hosted Ohio State on a national state a couple years back? Playing the game on the field is hard enough, so why make it any harder? That’s what Kain Colter did when he apparently disrupted and destroyed the chemistry inside that program, which has yet to recover. It may take a whole new regime to get rid of any toxic reside that’s left over.

Illinois (3-9)

You know you’ve got real problems when you have to terminate your Head Coach only days before the season opener. Bill Cubit finally gets a shot as a Power 5 Head Coach, but is this really that big a job right now? Who knows what kind of team chemistry we’ll see out of the Fighting Illini this fall, or how hard they will fight on a weekly basis.

Purdue (2-10)

It took a long time to realize that starting Austin Appleby at Quarterback was the right idea. That aside, Purdue should continue to struggle to compete with major College Football programs. Problem for Petey is, there’s a bunch of them in the Big Ten.

College Football Playoff Predictions

Auburn

Ohio State

Michigan State

TCU