Predicting Every Score on Michigan State's 2026 Football Schedule

Michigan State is ready to go through yet another "Year 1."

The Pat Fitzgerald era is a month away from officially kicking off against Toledo on Friday, Sept. 4. MSU hasn't made a bowl game in four seasons now, and the Spartans are hoping Fitzgerald can help engineer a quick turnaround. These would be my guesses for the final scores of every game on Michigan State's schedule ahead of the start of fall camp on Thursday:

Game 1: MSU 31, Toledo 17

Fitzgerald's first game in charge in East Lansing will be against another coach making his first start at another stop. Toledo hired Mike Jacobs to be its new head coach this offseason after Jason Candle left for the UConn job. Jacobs went 20-6 over two seasons at Mercer, leading the Bears to the FCS postseason in both years.

Toledo is supposed to be one of the trickier MAC teams. Despite having a first-year head coach, the Rockets were picked to finish third in their conference by MAC coaches in July.

Game 2: MSU 38, Eastern Michigan 10

Sep 13, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Eastern Michigan Eagles quarterback Noah Kim (1) looks to the sideline during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Eastern Michigan should be a slightly easier task. The Eagles finished seventh out of 13 teams in the MAC preseason poll. This Week 2 matchup will also bring back former Spartan starter Noah Kim, who led the MAC in passing yards last season.

Game 3: Notre Dame 41, MSU 17

Oct 18, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr, right, runs the ball as running back Jeremiyah Love (4) blocks during the second half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The first real test of the Fitzgerald era probably won't be real pretty. Notre Dame is among the list of favorites to win the national title this season, and the Fighting Irish will have home-field advantage during the first "Battle for the Megaphone" since 2017.

If you're on the optimistic side, Notre Dame has been susceptible to the stunning, early-season upset under Marcus Freeman. The Irish lost to Marshall in 2022 and Northern Illinois in 2024.

Game 4: Nebraska 26, MSU 23

Nov 22, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule looks on from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This game will be more important than it seems on the surface. Michigan State will likely be 2-1 entering this game and entering a stretch of difficult, but pretty winnable games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Illinois. A positive start to Big Ten play against Nebraska may be the jolt the Spartans would need to reach that six-win milestone.

Alas, I give a slight edge to Nebraska in this one. The Cornhuskers hardly amaze me, but Nebraska should have fresher legs after its cupcake-filled non-conference schedule against Ohio, Bowling Green, and FCS North Dakota, whereas MSU will probably be battered a little bit after its game at Notre Dame.

Game 5: MSU 24, Wisconsin 20

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Wisconsin Football head coach Luke Fickell speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I think Michigan State will have shown enough in that Nebraska game to regroup and find a way to win at Camp Randall in Madison. The Spartans will have already experienced a hostile atmosphere by this point, and the pressure will seriously be on Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell this year.

Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph is really talented and mobile, but he was turnover-prone while he was facing Sun Belt competition at Old Dominion. This could be a week where MSU's defense can help steal a game.

Game 6: Illinois 31, MSU 23

Katin Houser's return to East Lansing will also be Michigan State's homecoming game. The Fighting Illini have seen vast improvement since hiring Bret Bielema as their head coach, and I think Illinois keeps that momentum going this year.

This will be another game where MSU stays in it the whole way, but still just falls a possession or so short.

Game 7: MSU 34, Northwestern 21

Nov 1, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) warms up before the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This will be a blockbuster, as far as MSU-Northwestern games go. It'll be Fitzgerald's first game against his alma mater, and it will also be a return to Michigan State for Aidan Chiles. Northwestern finished 14th in Cleveland.com's Annual media preseason poll (MSU was picked 16th), and this is the only Big Ten game where the Spartans are a favorite, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index.

Overall, this might be the second-most important conference game on the schedule, storylines aside. The difference between perhaps 3-4 and 4-3 before the tougher back end of the schedule begins would be huge.

Game 8: UCLA 31, MSU 21

To be completely transparent, Bob Chesney was the coach I wanted Michigan State to get. He led James Madison to the College Football Playoff, but it was UCLA that went and got him.

MSU's trips out west since the Big Ten expanded again haven't been great. Oregon handled the Spartans with relative ease in 2024, and Michigan State wasn't ever in much of a position to take its game at USC last year. UCLA probably won't be as good as either of those teams, but a pretty dreadful Bruins team blew MSU out in East Lansing last year. The Spartans will probably be facing an improved version when it goes to Pasadena.

Game 9: Michigan 30, MSU 20

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) looks to pass the ball during the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 18, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Michigan State hasn't beaten Michigan in four years, either. The Wolverines also hired a very experienced head coach in Kyle Whittingham. One major difference is that Whittingham didn't take a three-year hiatus, so he brought over some talent and coaching staff from Utah.

Overall, Michigan should be a top-25 caliber team this fall. With the game being in Ann Arbor as well, this may not be the year to turn the tide in the rivalry.

Game 10: Washington 34, MSU 14

Dec 13, 2025; Inglewood, CA, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) is forced out of bounds by Boise State Broncos defensive back Jeremiah Earby (6) after a catching a pass in the second half of the LA Bowl at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Washington is another tough team on Michigan State's schedule. The Huskies finished 9-4 last year and also were able to hold onto dynamic starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who I think is a sleeper Heisman pick. UW won't be an overwhelming favorite in this one, but MSU stealing this one would be a considerable upset.

Game 11: Oregon 45, MSU 13

Oregon is the best Big Ten team Michigan State will face this year. If there is any hope for MSU in this one, it might be that it is an awkward Friday night game for the Ducks, sandwiched between a big home game against Michigan and a rivalry game vs. Washington.

The likely cold weather probably wouldn't help, though. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is from Michigan, after all, and Oregon's offensive line was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award last year, so running the ball shouldn't be an issue, either.

Game 12: MSU 28, Rutgers 21

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Rutgers Football head coach Greg Schiano speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I think MSU will finish the season on a high note, though. It's a road game, but Rutgers was picked second-to-last in the Big Ten preseason media poll. Overall, the record won't be inspiring, but I do think there will be signs within the scores that indicate some progress is being made this year.

Final Record Prediction: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)

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