Previewing & Predicting MSU's Next Challenge vs. Northern Iowa
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Michigan State has already proven it can be great this year. That's the standard from here on out.
The fifth-ranked Spartans (3-0) are hearing nothing but good stuff (at least from the outside distractors) following a statement 79-73 win over No. 2 Duke on Tuesday. The win is actually good enough that MSU is second in the country in WAB (1.0), according to Torvik, though it's probably too early to throw out resume-based stats. The Spartans' next challenge is...Northern Iowa (2-1).
This is both a letdown and a lookahead spot with a road game at No. 11 Tennessee on the horizon, which can be a pretty bad combo. Tom Izzo also loves packing his non-conference schedule with feisty mid-majors; Northern Iowa certainly fits the mold.
Breaking Down the Panthers
The Panthers from Cedar Falls, in purple, are probably among the more well-regarded mid-majors out there. Perhaps it's due to my remembrance of Paul Jesperson's half-court buzzer-beater to take down Texas in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament, or because it's easier to remember purple teams, but UNI has generally been one of the better teams coming out of the Missouri Valley Conference.
Northern Iowa, at least last year's version, made March Madness, falling as a 12-seed to 5-seed St. John's in the Round of 64. I say last year's version, though, because the team Michigan State will play on Friday night (7 p.m. ET, FS1) will be very, very different.
Firstly, the Panthers are breaking in a new coach. The previous coach, Ben Jacobsen, left UNI after 20 seasons to become the head coach at Utah State. Kyle Green is the new guy. He'd spent 16 total seasons across three different stints at Northern Iowa as an assistant and, most recently, was an assistant at Iowa State.
Last season's NCAA Tournament team had six players average at least six points per game. They're all gone. One transferred to Utah, one transferred to Iowa State, another followed Jacobsen to Utah State, another transferred to Northern Illinois, and two are done with college basketball. Northern Iowa simply got raided.
Green and this year's squad were largely built through the portal. Point guard Greyson Uelmen has been UNI's best player so far. He transferred in from North Dakota over the offseason and is averaging 19.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. All three of those stats are the most on the Panthers thus far.
Carson Vis and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu are two other players to know. Vis has been an absolute sniper from long range thus far. He's averaging 17.3 points per game on 8-for-17 shooting (47.1%) from behind the arc through three games, though one wonders if that's a sample-size thing, given his 30.6% mark from last year at Western Michigan. Johnson-Arigu is averaging 15.3 points per game on a 68.2% mark from the field.
Northern Iowa's Three Games
Date | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
Nov. 3 | Cornell College (D-III) | W, 106-70 |
Nov. 7 | @ Furman | L, 98-83 |
Nov. 10 | Green Bay | W, 89-76 |
What MSU Must Show
This game is about focus for Michigan State. All the numbers say this should be an easy win for the Spartans. KenPom has the Spartans' chance of victory at 99%, and EvanMiya.com has it even higher at 99.5%.
Spreadsheets are spreadsheets, though. Those same sites had Duke as the favorite against MSU (though not nearly as significant), after all. The numbers there are generally pretty good on a macro scale (dozens or hundreds of games), but they mean less and less as you hone in more on specific areas or games.
Michigan State has looked sharp in all three regular-season games so far, enough so that those lackluster losses to UConn and Marquette already seem firmly in the rearview mirror. The Spartans seem to be starting their season at a peak rather than a valley, but maintaining the same level of intensity is something they can always control. It's one thing if shots aren't falling on the offensive end, but it's another if there are sloppy turnovers or poor communication on defense.
Final Thoughts, Prediction
Overall, there probably isn't too much need to worry about a lapse in focus or some sort of big drop-off. Michigan State didn't act like a team that thought it had pulled off a massive upset on Tuesday. It looked like a team that knew it had overcome a big challenge against Duke, but also like a team that seemed to expect to win. That's the attitude they exuded midgame and postgame.
MSU probably isn't going to waltz in and demolish Northern Iowa by 50, but this game shouldn't be very close. This team is playing like one of the best in the nation, and if the Spartans win this one, they will probably shoot up to No. 2 or 3 in the next AP Poll.
Final Prediction: No. 5 Michigan State 84, Northern Iowa 60
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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