Breaking Down Minnesota's Seeding Scenarios for Big Ten Tournament

We're entering the final week of regualr-season play for Big Ten women's basketball. If the season ended today, the Gophers would be seeded fifth in the conference tournament, but they have one game remaining against illinois. Let's breakdown some seeding scenarios.

After cracking the AP Top 25 poll last week at No. 23, Minnesota climbed to No. 22 in this week's poll, despite going 1-1 this week against the Buckeyes and Spartans.

Minnesota has just one game remaining on its schedule, but many teams have two. UCLA has already clinched the regular-season title, but the rest of the seeding is still firmly up for grabs. There are essentially five teams battling for seeds two through six, which are Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan State.

Current standings with games remaining

Current Big Ten WBB standings with games remaining. | Picture via: bball.notnothing.net

Minnesota could climb as high as No. 2

The Gophers could climb as high as No. 2, but also fall as low as No. 7. The first scenario would require a few upsets. The most unlikely results in this hypothetical would start with Illinois going into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and taking down Iowa. Minnesota is the only team that has done that this season. The Hawkeyes would also have to lose at 13th-place Wisconsin in their final game, which seems almost more unlikely.

The only other upsets that would need to occur would be Ohio State beating rival Michigan at home, Maryland beating the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, and Michigan State beating Ohio State at home. This is a very unrealistic scenario for Minnesota, but still possible.

Minnesota could fall as low as No. 7

There is a worst-case scenario where the Gophers fall all the way down to the seven seed. That would obviously include losing at Illinois in their final regular-season game. The next biggest thing that would need to happen would be current seventh-place Maryland finishing the season 2-0 with wins vs. Northwestern and at Michigan. It's another unlikely outcome, but still possible.

Most likely scenario

If the Gophers beat Illinois on Sunday, it's going to be very hard for them to fall out of the top four, which would result in a double bye. They're currently 0.5 games behind Ohio State in the standings, but they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. They're one game ahead of Michigan State, but don't own the head-to-head against the Spartans.

The only way for Minnesota to fall out of the top four while still beating Illinois would be if Ohio State ended the season 2-0 against Michigan and Michigan State. They're viewed as underdogs in both of those matchups, so that scenario seems unlikely.

ESPN's matchup predictor currently gives the Gophers a 65.5% chance of beating Illinois on the road on Sunday. If they win that game, it seems likely they earn a double-bye. If they lose that game, they will likely fall behind that threshold. There are obvious exceptions, but that is likely what things will come down to.