Gophers' NCAA Tournament path comes into focus entering final nonconference game

Minnesota is positioned to get back to the NCAA Tournament this March.

Jan 31, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Dawn Plitzuweit reacts during the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Gophers women's basketball wraps up its nonconference slate on Sunday in Des Moines with a true road game against Drake. With an 8-3 overall record, Minnesota has positioned itself well to earn an at-large bid in this season's NCAA Tournament before Big Ten play.

ESPN's latest Bracketology from Charlie Creme on December 16 projects Minnesota as a nine seed. They currently do not hold a win over a team in the projected field. In fact, the only projected tournament team they've faced is Alabama, which resulted in a 63-58 loss.

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Minnesota had resume-building opportunities in its nonconference slate. The neutral site game against Alabama and the Big Ten opener against Maryland were both Quad 1 games, but the Gophers lost those games by five and one point, respectively.

The Gophers are currently ranked 17th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which is the biggest metric used to choose at-large teams for the tournament. Their biggest win came at home against Marquette, which is currently No. 56 in the NET, which means it's a Quad 2 win. Their only other win over a team in the top 200 came against South Florida, which is 79th, on a neutral floor.

Drake is usually a quality opponent, but the Bulldogs are 2-8 this season, and currently 238th in the NET. That means a win on Sunday would do very little for Minnesota's overall resume. Their next resume-building opportunity will be on Dec. 29 at Indiana, which ranks 45th in the NET, so that will be a Quad 1 game for the Gophers.

The NET factors in winning margin, so Minnesota's seven wins by 30 or more points are a big reason why they rank so high. Ultimately, they're still searching for a huge win, but there will be more than enough opportunities to find one in Big Ten play.

The Gophers have not qualified for the NCAA Tournament since the 2017-18 season. If they get anywhere near .500 in Big Ten play, they will likely break that streak this March.