Analyzing the Gophers' chances of winning a third Big Ten Tournament title

Minnesota and Michigan State shared this year's Big Ten regular season title, but it's now time for the playoffs. The 2025 Big Ten men's hockey tournament gets underway this weekend, so let's look at the Gophers' chances of winning the event for the first time since 2021.

2025 Big Ten Men's Hockey Tournament bracket:

Big Ten men's hockey tournament bracket | Picture via: @tonyliebert (X)

The Spartans earned the top seed and a first-round bye. In opening round action, Minnesota will host Notre Dame, Michigan will host Penn State and Ohio State will host Wisconsin in a best-of-three series. DraftKings Sportsbook released betting odds for which team will take home the title.

Team	Betting Odds (DraftKings)
Michigan State	+120
Minnesota	+250
Ohio State	+550
Michigan	+700
Penn State	+1200
Wisconsin	+5000
Notre Dame	+7000

The Gophers have the second-best odds at +250, which gives them an implied probability of 28.57% of winning the tournament. Michigan State's +120 odds give them an implied probability of 45.45%.

Notre Dame was clearly the worst team in the Big Ten this season, with a 4-19-1 conference record. After a November sweep in South Bend for the Gophers, they picked up a 5-2 win and a 4-3 OT loss at home in January. Minnesota will be heavily favored to advance.

As for the other two first-round series, Wisconsin was swept by Ohio State in the regular season, and Michigan was 3-1 against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the wildcard team in this tournament, as they have only three regulation losses in 18 games since January 3, after starting 0-7-1 in conference play.

If Penn State is able to continue to find some magic, it could open up the entire tournament. With an upset win over Michigan and then Ohio State and Minnesota advancing, the Nittany Lions would face Michigan State in the semifinals. In four regular season games, Penn State recorded two shootout wins, one regulation win and only one regulation loss against the top-ranked Spartans.

The Gophers were 3-1 against Ohio State in the regular season and 3-0-1 against Wisconsin. They didn't suffer a single regulation loss against Michigan, but they did lose in overtime and a shootout in their February series in Ann Arbor. If Minnesota is able to avoid a Michigan State team that they didn't beat once in the regular season, their chances of winning would obviously increase dramatically.

The Michigan-Penn State series will be the one to monitor in the first round. No matter how it plays out, the Gophers might have a more favorable semifinals matchup than Michigan State. The tie-breaker and home-ice advantage would loom large for a potential championship game in East Lansing if both teams do advance.

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