Mississippi State vs. Memphis Betting Odds, Point Spread
Mixed expectations surround Mississippi State football as it prepares to open perhaps the toughest schedule 2022 season against the Memphis Tigers in Davis Wade Stadium on Sept. 3.
The Bulldogs enter the matchup as heavy favorites with a point spread of -16.5, according to SI Sportsbook on Aug. 26. The over/under is 57 points, with the money line on MSU at -752 and at +450 for Memphis.
If you're looking to place an early bet, here's what to know.
The Skinny: MSU enters the season with one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC in junior passer Will Rogers and progressively clicked on offense in the back half of the season while maintaining a strong defense for the better part of 2021. While dropped passes were an issue throughout camp that seems to be on the way to remedying itself through continued offseason work, between that and that and the rusty start the Bulldogs got off to last year, it would be easy to see why one would be wary of expecting the team to win by over two touchdowns to cover the spread. State formed one of its biggest comebacks in school history against Louisiana Tech of all opponents at the beginning of the season last year, winning 35-34 after trailing 31-14 going into the fourth quarter of that game. Looking at last season's matchup against Memphis in particular, the Bulldogs fell victim to some egregious officiating errors that had significant impact on the 31-29 losing outcome of the game, but also failed to play a complete enough game in their own right in what was projected to be an easy win.
Covering the spread: As noted above, between the inconsistencies the offense has shown at points during offseason preparation and the way it took the unit some time to really get going in consistent fashion last season, it's not unreasonable to predict there could be some sputtering early on once more. The Bulldogs must also make up for the loss of Makai Polk at pass-catcher, and it still remains to be seen which wideout will rise to the top within an offensive scheme that is known for distributing the ball relatively evenly. The Bulldogs should be expected to win this one outright, but there is some risk involved with betting on the team to cover this large of a spread.
To take the over or the under: When the Air Raid offense is in tune, it has no issue quickly driving down the field and putting up huge numbers both on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. This will be a good first game to gauge just where the unit is at in terms of how quickly they'll be able to hit ground running and produce. The Tigers could also find a good amount of success offensively as they return quarterback Seth Henigan, who put on an impressive freshman campaign. He finished out last season with a 59.8% completion rate, 3,322 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions to put him among the nation's best freshman signal-callers. He's the same quarterback who was a part of the effort to put up 31 points on the MSU defense last year as well. Defensively, the Tigers return just four starters after allowing an average of 29.2 points per game last season. If recent history serves as any indicator, the Bulldogs and the Tigers combined for 60 points last season. Looking at all of the factors, this is a tricky decision but taking the over at 57 points may be the best move.
