Opinion: Mississippi State Football Has the Ability to Exceed Expectations
STARKVILLE, Miss. — The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into the 2024 season with a first-year head coach. Jeff Lebby, the former Oklahoma offensive coordinator, will bring his uptempo and exciting offense to Starkville.
However, expectations are not high for MSU in Lebbys' first year, nor should they be, but there are pieces to work with. The Bulldogs worked hard in the transfer portal to add playmakers and fill needed positions.
Judging by the first transfer portal recruiting class, Lebby will heavily emphasize the offensive line as he should, and MSU offensive line coach Cody Kennedy did a great job of retooling the offensive line after losing six contributors from last year. MSU brought in three linemen with vast experience in college football: Ethan Miner (North Texas), Makylan Pounders (Memphis), and Jacoby Jackson (Texas Tech).
If that group can adjust to life in the SEC, the offensive line can be a strength of this team. The Bulldogs will likely need to fill one more tackle and guard position, and Albert Reese IV and Leon Bell are candidates for that job.
Mississippi State also needed to replace a couple of playmakers at receivers, with Lideatrick Griffin heading to the NFL and Zavion Thomas entering the transfer portal. MSU used both the transfer portal and high school ranks to fill that need.
Lebby brought in Kelly Akharaiyi (UTEP) and Kevin Coleman (Louisville), who produced at their respective schools. Akharaiyi provides MSU with a deep threat, and Coleman could fill in nicely as a slot receiver.
The Bulldogs also signed a trio of 4-star high school receivers Braylon "Stonka" Burnside, JJ Harrell, and Mario Craver. Blake Shapen will likely be the starting quarterback, and the former Baylor quarterback has vast experience and, most notably, winning experience.
Shapen helped lead the Bears to a Big 12 title in the 2021 season. It speaks volumes for Shapen that Lebby took his commitment early in the process because he has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer.
Lebby has worked with McKenzie Milton, Matt Corral, and Dillon Gabriel, all of whom have been very successful college quarterbacks. Wherever Lebby has gone and called plays, the offense and quarterback produce at a high rate, so there is no reason to think he can not somewhat replicate that in Starkville.
With the transfer portal haul this offseason, the Bulldogs are in a decent spot on offense. Lebbys offense makes stars, forcing mismatches, and his high-tempo offense will test the discipline of opposing defenses.
This team's most significant question mark is the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler. The Bulldogs were not quite as active on defense as many would have thought in the portal, as they only signed five players.
Four of the five players did not play much at their previous schools and are expected to be depth pieces in Starkville, but former South Carolina linebacker Stone Blanton should provide immediate help. Blanton will bring SEC experience to a young defense and will be tasked with trying to fill the shoes of Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson.
The defense's youth and inexperience are concerning, but the talent is there. A few players who will need to step up will be Isaac Smith (Safety), Kelley Jones (Cornerback), and Trevion Williams (Defensive Lineman).
Those guys have two things in common: they were consensus 4-star recruits, and they play at a position of concern. Even though these guys were highly rated out of high school, they will still need to prove it on the field, but their lack of experience does not mean they cannot produce at a high level.
Talented guys are often thrown into the water, and they will either sink or swim. Assuming that all three of those guys will succeed is highly optimistic, but there are worse situations than starting a talented sophomore.
Expectations are low for Mississippi State in the first year under its new head coach, but the Bulldogs can achieve seven or eight wins. If Lebby's trend continues and the offense takes a step forward next year, that is a good start.
The defense is unknown, and it is unlikely they will finish in the top half of the league in total defense, but the culture at MSU is not conducive to terrible defense. Less talented defensive rosters at MSU in the past decade have still been respectable due to their toughness and physicality.
The Bulldogs also have a favorable home SEC schedule as they face Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, and Arkansas in Davis Wade Stadium this fall. This home schedule gives MSU winnable games as both Florida and Arkansas have head coaches on the hot seat, Texas A&M will also have a first-year head coach, and Missouri will be the toughest test as they are coming off an 11-win season.
However, the Bulldogs drew perhaps the worst road schedule, traveling to Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. If MSU wins all of its non-conference games, including a trip to Arizona State and two of its home SEC games, that is enough for a bowl bid.
The Egg Bowl is never a sure thing so that they could pull the upset there, and they travel to Knoxville to face Josh Heupel, Lebbys former boss; that could be a winnable game for MSU.
Despite all the changes and unknowns surrounding this football program, I see seven wins for this team next season. The Bulldogs take care of their non-conference foes, and they drop one SEC home game.
Seven wins in the first year of the Lebby era will be a tremendous first step.
