Three keys and a prediction
The NC State football team begins the second half of its 2019 season today with a matchup against ACC Atlantic rival Boston College in Chestnut Hill.
Even though the game is on the road, a place where the Wolfpack has yet to win in two previous tries this season, this figures to be a favorable matchup for coach Dave Doeren's team. Not only will the Eagles be playing a backup quarterback making his first career start, but their defense -- which is ranked 11th in the ACC -- could be the remedy that finally cures State's ailing offense.
It's an important game matching strength against strength, with the Wolfpack's ACC-leading rushing defense challenged to contain a potent Eagles running game led by league-leading rusher A.J. Dillon.
Here are three keys to State coming out on top:
Make the replacement quarterback beat you
Both Doeren and co-defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had nice things to say about sophomore Dennis Grosel this week, but the bottom line is that he's still a former walkon about to make his first college start. While he did throw for three touchdowns in relief of injured starter Anthony Brown against Loiusville in BC's most recent game, he also completed only 37.5 percent of his passes (9 of 24, 111 yards). Even with an open week to prepare, that means the Eagles will likely lean even more heavily on Dillon than usual -- making it incumbent on the Wolfpack's stout run defense to keep the 245-pound junior in check. If State can limit Dillon's effectiveness, either by defending him or getting ahead early and playing with the lead rather than from behind, they can force Grosel to beat them with his arm. And that will greatly enhance their chances of coming home with a victory.
Touchdowns not field goals
This has been a recurring problem for the Wolfpack all season and it didn't get any better last Thursday against Syracuse with Bailey Hockman at quarterback instead of Matthew McKay. Despite dominating on the stat sheet, State won 16-10. But it nearly had the game taken from it in the fourth quarter because it settled for three Christopher Dunn field goals instead of putting the Orange away with touchdowns earlier in the game. For the season, the Wolfpack's 10 red zone field goals are tied with Stanford and TCU for the second most in the FBS this season -- trailing only Washington, whose 12 have come in one more game than State. Scoring in increments of three rather than seven has already cost State at least one game by taking it out of contention early at Florida State. Perhaps today Doeren and co-offensive coordinators Des Kitchings and George McDonald might try to utilize a to this point untapped resource in 6-foot-7 tight end Cary Angeline by throwing him a jump ball or fade when they get close to the end zone. At this point anything is worth a try.
Take the ball away
As well as the Wolfpack's defense has played this season -- leading the ACC against the run at just 66.7 yards allowed per game and ranking third in sacks with 26 sacks -- the one thing it has not done well is create turnovers. The Wolfpack has only five takeaways all season, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries, and hasn't had one since Chris Ingram's game-saving pick in the end zone on the final possession against Ball State three games ago. Gibson said earlier this week that he hopes the turnovers will eventually start coming in bunches. Even one today, especially if it provides a short field, would be a huge boost to a struggling offense that could use all the assistance it can get, especially on the road.
PREDICTION
State has won its last two trips to BC and has a lot going for it today from the Eagles' quarterback situation and its own stout run defense to an opposing defense giving up an average of 28.8 points per game. If history tells us anything, though, it's that the more promising a situation looks, the worse the Wolfpack usually performs. While that danger certainly exists here, State should find a way to pull through ... Wolfpack 24, Eagles 20
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