Three keys and a prediction

Factors that will help decide this week's game against Florida State

Rob Kinnan/USAToday sports

NC State heads to Tallahassee to play Florida State tonight with a golden opportunity to get off to a fast start in the ACC.

Not only has the Wolfpack beaten the Seminoles in each of the past two seasons -- inlcuding a 27-21 win at Doak Campbell Stadium in 2017 -- but coach Willie Taggart's team appears highly vulnerable after struggling to a 2-2 start that includes an overtime survival against Louisiana-Monroe.

State didn't fare well in its first road test of the year two weeks ago at West Virginia, which is one reason why it's a 6 1/2-pound underdog tonight. But coach Dave Doeren is hoping the lessons his team learned from that loss will help it put forth a better effort this time around.

Here are three keys to making that happen:

START FAST

The Seminoles have outscored their opponents by a collective 56-9 margin in the first quarter this season, so it's important for the Wolfpack to be sharp right from the opening kickoff. In fact, Doeren has talked about the possibility of taking the ball first rather than deferring to the second half if State wins the toss. Doing so would give the Wolfpack an opportunity to get out front early, but it would also help shorten the quarter for the Seminoles to do their damage. If the Wolfpack can weather the early storm and not be forced to climb out of a deep hole, it's chances of winning go up exponentially, especially since it has outscored its opponents by an equally lopsided 59-7 margin in the second period.

WIN THE GROUND GAME 

Stopping Cam Akers and the Seminoles' ground game will be a key no matter what. The junior running back is averaging 124.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns through the first four games. Limiting his effectiveness will be even more important if starting quarterback James Blackman can't go because of the knee injury he suffered last week and grad transfer Alex Hornibrook is forced to make his first FSU start. Conversely, the Wolfpack can take considerable pressure off its own quarterback -- whichever one is in the game at the time -- by being able to run the ball. FSU is currently ninth in the ACC defending the run, allowing an average of 159 yards per game. It's a situation that should give the trio of Zonovan Knight, Ricky Person and Jordan Houston plenty of opportunities to do damage. That is, as long as State follows Key No. 1 and doesn't fall behind too far early.

FINISH STRONG

The second half hasn't been kind to State over the past two weeks. It managed only a pair of field goals after the intermission at West Virginia on Sept. 14 after playing the Mountaineers to a 21-all tie in the first half. Then last Saturday against, Ball State, it coasted to the finish line by gaining less than 100 yards of total offense and completing only two passes in the final 30 minutes -- with the only two touchdowns coming courtesy of special teams big plays. The Wolfpack has to do a better job of generating energy coming out of halftime and carrying it through to the finish line. Taking its foot off the accelerator   on the road against a team like Florida State is a recipe for defeat.

PREDICTION

The Wolfpack has never won three straight against FSU, but it has a golden to accomplish the feat tonight. Because while the Seminoles appear to be getting their act together, it still took eveything they could muster to hold off a rebuilding Louisville team at home last week. Throw in some uncertainty at quarterback and everything would appear to line up nicely for the Wolfpack. The problem is when things start to look good for State, that's when they often turn out back. Thus ... FSU 34, State 27