Three keys and a prediction
It’s not exactly a must win for the NC State football team tonight. No matter what happens against Louisville at Carter-Finley Stadium, the wounded Wolfpack will still have two more shots at getting the two wins it needs to gain bowl eligibility.
But coach Dave Doeren’s team can make its task a whole lot easier -- and keep its slim margin for error -- with a win against the Cardinals tonight.
Louisville is much better than expected in its first season under former Appalachian State coach Scott Satterfield and can scan its postseason ticket with a win. But even at that, the Cardinals are a major step down in competition from Clemson and Wake Forest the past two weeks.
Here are three keys that could help NC State take advantage of the opportunity and get back on the winning track:
Survive the first quarter
There’s a commonly held belief among football coaches that games can’t be won in the first quarter, but they can certainly be lost. The Wolfpack is living, breathing proof of that old adage. Over the past two weeks, State has dug itself into early holes too deep to escape on the way to lopsided losses. It trailed 21-0 after the first 15 minutes against the Deacons in Winston-Salem, then fell behind 28-0 on homecoming against the defending national champions. In both cases, the main culprit was turnovers. The Wolfpack gave the ball away seven times in all in the two games, a problem that has to be corrected to have any chance at beating anyone. Getting off to a better start will also help young quarterback Devin Leary settle in and be more effective instead of being forced to throw on every down in an effort to battle back from the early deficits.
Run the football
This also falls under the category of taking some pressure off the young quarterback in just his second career start. The more and more effective the Wolfpack is about to move the ball on the ground, the less the Cardinals' defense can afford to blitz Leary. The less Leary gets hit and the more time he has to throw, the better he's liable to be. If there was one positive that came out of last week's drubbing at the hands of Clemson, it's that freshman Zonovan Knight looked healthy and fast again. He broke off two long runs and rushed for more than 130 yards against the ACC's best defense. Getting him the ball as much as possible, especially early, should be a top priority tonight.
Elimate the explosive plays
An explosive play, as defined by the Wolfpack staff, is a running play that gains 10 or more yards and a passing play that goes for 20 yards or more. Over the past three games, State's defense has allowed 32 of them (21 on the ground, 10 on the ground and one on special teams). That's an average of just under 10 per game. Compare that to the first six games -- in which the Wolfpack went 4-2 -- when State allowed an average of just five explosive plays per game. It's not going to be easy against a Cardinals attack that features as much speed as anyone the Wolfpack will face this season, Clemson included. But as the stats bear out, it's something it will have to limit to get out of this one with a win.
Prediction
The Wolfpack is banged up, but motivated and with a Louisville team that allowed 52 points against Miami last week, this is a realistic opportunity to get healthy again -- at least from a won-loss standpoint -- and move one step closer to bowl eligibility. Gut feeling that Leary is ready for a breakout game and the patchwork defense will play just well enough to get the job done ... Wolfpack 42, Cardinals 40
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