Three keys and a prediction
We've come to the point in the college football season in which everyone becomes a math major.
Okay, not every one.
Those at the top of the food chain know that they only need to keep winning in order to earn spots in their conference championship games and have a shot at the College Football Playoff.
For everyone else, the next five weeks will be spent counting the number of victories needed to reach the goal of bowl eligibility. In the case of NC State, the magic number is two.
While that might not sound like much, it could be be a challenge considering the Wolfpack's remaining schedule. It's a finishing kick that begins with games against two ranked opponents, starting with Saturday's game at Wake Forest.
The Wolfpack and Deacons have played one another every year since 1910, but this will be only the fourth time they'll meet with Wake as a ranked team. Adding to the degree of difficulty for State the fact that it has lost seven of its last eight on its in-state rival's home field.
Here are three keys that will help coach Dave Doeren and his team to break that streak and move one win closer to bowl eligibility:
Protect the young corners
Converted safety De'Von Graves and redshirt freshman Malik Dunlap are going to have their hands full trying to keep Wake's talented trio of receivers in check. The odds of it happening are extremely slim, considering the way Sage Surratt, Scotty Washington and Kendall Hinton have already carved up much more experienced secondaries this season. The only way they'll stand a fighting chance is to put whichever quarterback that starts for the Deacons -- Jamie Newman or Sam Hartman -- under enough duress to disrupt his rhythm and not allow him to find his receivers downfield. It's possible. With eight sacks each in back-to-back games against Florida State and Syracuse earlier this season, the Wolfpack showed that it can generate a disruptive pass rush. In order to do that, though, it will have to be a lot more physical at the line of scrimmage than it was at BC.
Score
Another way of making the defense's job more managable is for State's offense to do its part by putting points on the scoreboard. Even under the best of circumstances, it's going to take a relatively big number to beat a team whose offense ranks No. 1 in the ACC in passing offense and has scored more points than anyone in the league other than Clemson. Aiding the Wolfpack's cause is that the Deacons will be without their best defensive player, linebacker Justin Strnad, who suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago against Florida State. Another encouraging sign is the progress State's offense showed once quarterback Devin Leary settled in and began finding a rhythm in the second half at BC. Leary led the Wolfpack to three touchdowns over the final two periods and introduced a vertical passing threat it hasn't had to that point this season. If the redshirt freshman can build on the momentum of that performance and get even a semi-effective running game to go along with it, State's chance of winning will increase significantly.
Play like an underdog
A case can be made that the Wolfpack took the Deacons lightly over the past two years and the result was a pair of close losses that kept State from reaching the 10-win mark for only the second time in school history. This time, the roles are reversed. Wake is now the ranked team on the cusp of a special season while the Wolfpack is the struggling upstart looking to pull off the upset. In order to do so, State must embrace the new dyamic of this rivalry and play with the same kind of urgency as Wake did when it was the underdog. That means winning individual battles, especially at the line of scrimmage, avoiding mistakes and taking advantage of every opportunity -- especially if the Deacons fall int othe trap of taking the Wolfpack lightly. Doeren and his players must also overcome history. Not only have they yet to win on the road this season, but State has beaten Wake in WInston-Salem only once since 2003 -- four years before Groves Stadium became known as BB&T Field.
Prediction
The Wolfpack is coming off an open date, which should give it an advantage. Yes, Wake had an open date last week, too. But believe it or not, it's 0-7 in the past five seasons under coach Dave Clawson in games following a week off. That includes a loss to Louisville earlier this season in which the Deacons gave up 62 points. While that bodes well for State, the law of averages has to catch up with Wake eventually. And with all the offensive weapons it possesses, this is likely to be that time ... Deacons 34, Wolfpack 24
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