All In on the Future: Lateef Leads Huskers into a Vegas Gamble

As the month of October came to a close, Nebraska knew it already had a bowl berth locked up. The Matt Rhule year 3 leap looked fully in reach with USC coming to town for Nebraska’s blackout game. The attire would be fitting as that game marked the end of the Raiola era at Nebraska, and the hopes of a great season, as Nebraska would go 1-3 in November, led by TJ Lateef.

Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. | Arbitrary Analytics

Despite the disappointing end to the season, the Las Vegas Bowl is a great opportunity for Nebraska. Utah was a legitimate contender for the playoffs and is ranked 15th in the College Football Playoff Committee’s final rankings. Nebraska has plenty to prove in this final game. With a good performance, Lateef can prove the 2026 starting job is his to lose, regardless of Nebraska’s moves in the transfer portal. Matt Rhule (and Nebraska as a whole) has another opportunity to beat a ranked team. Eleven Huskers on the defense have a chance to prove they can stop one of the best rushing offenses in the country and deserve a Blackshirt next season for Rob Aurich.

The Utes quarterback, Devon Dampier, is one of the last players that Nebraska fans want to see this postseason. Since his debut for New Mexico in 2023, he’s been one of the nation’s best running quarterbacks. He ranks fifth in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns among all quarterbacks over the last three seasons. In terms of total rushing EPA*, he ranks 14th in the nation among quarterbacks, just ahead of a guy Husker fans may remember from the beginning of the season – Brendan Sorsby.

*EPA (Expected Points Added) assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

Dampier is also a capable passer. He’s one of just eight players this season to have a touchdown rate of 7% or higher and an interception rate of 2% or lower (minimum 300 attempts). Dampier is a great player who can beat the Huskers in multiple ways.

Running total EPA for TJ Lateef and Devon Dampier in 2025. | Arbitrary Analytic

Lateef was a star through his first four games as the Huskers quarterback, but most of his success came against lesser opponents. Against the more talented Penn State and Iowa defenses, he struggled, failing to throw a touchdown pass. This Utah game is a great opportunity for him to prove he can be the Huskers’ starter heading into 2026.

Strong Rushing Offenses vs Weak Defenses

Bell-cow running back Emmett Johnson served as the engine for the Husker offense before moving on to the NFL. Isaiah Mozee is left as the next running back with the most rushing attempts this season. He’s a raw, yet talented player who was a wide receiver in high school. The extra bowl practice is crucial to his development. He’s also auditioning for a lead role in 2026.

Top available Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytic

Utah has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. As a team, they are second in rushing yards per game. The Utes’ rushing attack is balanced. Five players have more carries this season than the Huskers’ leading carrier for this game, Lateef. Utah’s rushers have hit on some big runs this season, something that the Blackshirts have struggled to stop. Utah will be without its two starting tackles, who opted to prepare for the NFL draft.

Both teams have struggled to stop the run in 2025. Utah has allowed more rushing yards per game than Nebraska. In terms of advanced metrics, though, the Blackshirts are worse than the Utes’ defense. Nebraska is the fifth-worst team in the country in EPA allowed per rush, while Utah is the 23rd-worst-ranked. Both offenses should have plenty of success on the ground.

Top Utah rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytic

X-Factors

A bigger factor in this game than the personnel on the field is who is missing from it. Johnson was one of the best players in the country in 2025 and was the engine of the Huskers’ offense. Nebraska may be able to replace him in the aggregate by leaning on a more dynamic rushing attack, with Lateef complementing the ground game.

Utah is without its head coach, Kyle Whittingham, who decided to bolt to Michigan after previously declaring this game his retirement tour. This may have a big impact on Utah players who are considering joining him in Ann Arbor for 2026. Will this be a distraction for those playing in Las Vegas? Perhaps. If Nebraska can jump out to a fast start, it has a chance to win this game.

Both offenses should have a field day in this game. While both teams are missing some key offensive pieces, the Utes have more of their key players available. Ultimately, this experience should give them a comfortable win.

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