Dave Feit: Reasons for a Reality Check About the 2023 Huskers

QB depth issues, defense’s growing pains are among areas of concern

When I preview a Husker football season, I consider myself a realist.

Over the years, I’ve been happy to chug the Kool-Aid with blind faith. I’m old enough to remember when nine wins, contending for the conference title and a New Year’s Day bowl game were all but guaranteed.

But, at some point in this century,* I’ve become a lot more skeptical of the off-season hype machine.

*”Nebraska is coming off the first nine-win season of Mike Riley’s tenure. NFL scouts are raving about quarterback Tanner Lee. 2017 could be a big year for the Huskers!!”

I trust what I see with my eyes, and what the data shows me. As the program has sunk lower and lower, it has been easier to see those red flags that many people are willing to ignore. A year ago, I said defensive regression was likely and four wins were a possibility. That turned out to be very accurate.

I'm not saying that Nebraska will suffer yet another losing season in 2023. I am saying you should read to the end before making any non-refundable bowl game reservations.

For those who like their Kool-Aid extra sweet, over here I took a look at five different areas that give me optimism about the 2023 Huskers' chances to end their bowl drought. These are all things that, for the first time in years, give me genuine hope.

But if NU is home for the holidays, the likely reason lies below:

The depth at quarterback is - at best - unproven.

At worst, it is downright alarming.

Here's what we know for sure: Jeff Sims is Nebraska's starting quarterback. The Georgia Tech transfer is arguably the biggest thing standing between 7+ wins and a seventh straight losing season.

Casey Thompson, the 2021 starter, is set to start at Florida Atlantic. Top backup Logan Smothers is playing for Rich Rodriguez at Jacksonville State.

Next up, in terms of experience (and, possibly, the 2023 depth chart) is Chubba Purdy. Purdy played in six games in 2022, completing 22 of 48 passes with 0 TDs and 3 interceptions.

Purdy also had 24 rushes for 73 yards - making him the sixth leading rusher on the 2022 team - and scored two touchdowns. Purdy had moments where he looked good, and moments where he did not.

Since we're listing quarterbacks based on their NU playing experience, Matt Masker would be next up. Masker, a walk-on from Kearney Catholic, saw mop up duty in two games in 2021. Masker, a senior in 2023, entered the transfer portal this spring. I was unable to determine if he is at another school this fall.

That gets us down to Heinrich Haarberg, another Kearney Catholic alum, and the first in-state scholarship quarterback since 2001. Haarberg is said to be ridiculously athletic. However, he has not taken a snap in a game.

The other two QBs on the roster are a pair of redshirt freshmen transfers: Luke Longval, who did not play in his one season at Iowa Western CC, and Jack Woche, who did not play in his brief time at Ole Miss.

Why go through this exercise?

The aforementioned Tanner Lee is the last Nebraska quarterback to start every game in a season. I have no idea how far back we'd have to go to find a running QB who did not miss time due to injury.

The odds say that Jeff Sims will miss time this year. What happens when he’s in the medical tent - or in street clothes - will greatly determine this season.

History says Matt Rhule’s team will not win a lot of games in 2023.

By now, it is well known that Temple went 2-10 and Baylor 1-11 in Rhule's first seasons at those schools.

But what was going on before Rhule took over? Temple was 9-4 in 2011, then fell to 4-7 in 2012, Steve Addazio's last year. Baylor is a little different because of the scandal-ridden circumstances that led to Art Briles being fired after a 10-3 season in 2015. Jim Grobe served as an interim head coach for the 2016 season, going 7-6.

In other words, in both of Rhule's previous college stops*, his Year 1 had a worse record than the years before it. Rhule's Temple first team was 2 games worse than the year before. His first Baylor team was six games worse. What happens with a Nebraska team that only won four games a year ago?

*I'm intentionally leaving out Rhule's NFL stint with the Panthers. While Rhule's Year 1 record (5-11) was the same previous season, there are too many differences between NFL and college football for it to be a valid data point.

I hear you saying "But Nebraska is different than Temple or Baylor! The transfer portal didn't exist then."

While that may be true, remember this: As we enter the fourth year of this decade, Nebraska's win total for the 2020s is at ten. This program isn’t where the Briles era Baylor Bears were at.

There are no proven "home run hitters" on the offense.

Last year, Trey Palmer was a threat to score from anywhere on the field. But when I look at the roster of players with college experience, I don't see anybody close to his home run ability.

I see a lot of guys who can hit singles (Nate Boerkircher, Gabe Ervin, etc.) and maybe stretch them into a double (Anthony Grant, Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, and Rahmir Johnson). You can talk me into Marcus Washington and Billy Kemp being able to stretch something into a triple.

But beyond that? The closest thing Nebraska had to a legitimate home run threat - wide receiver Zavier Betts - left the team in August.

Maybe there is a breakout freshman on the roster. Matt Rhule loves to recruit track guys, after all. But the odds of consistent production from a developmental freshman are low.

Growing pains for a new defense are common.

One of the great unknowns of the season how Nebraska's new 3-3-5 defense will fare. Will it be a success? Or will Big Ten offenses carve it up?

Good news: A statistical improvement over 2022 is likely. The 2022 Black(ish)Shirts - led initially by Erik Chinander, and later by Bill Busch - ranked 100th in total defense.*

*I'm going to use total defense in this section, as it is commonly used and gives the clearest picture of what I'm trying to show. But know that the other primary defensive stats (scoring defense, rush defense, etc.) show a similar trend.

Bad news: Two of Nebraska's last three defense coordinators have been worse in Year 1 than their predecessor. Brace yourself for these numbers:

• In 2014, the Bo Pelini / John Papuchis defense finished 53rd in total defense.
• In 2015, Mark Banker's first Blackshirts finished 65th (a drop of 12 spots).
• In 2016, Banker's boys finished 30th in total defense (Did you know this is the highest ranking for a Nebraska defense in the Big Ten era?)
• In 2017, Bob Diaco's defensive disaster dropped NU to 100th place (a drop of a 70 spots).

• In 2018, Erik Chinander's defense wasn't great, but it was good enough to break the trend with a slight improvement to 94th place (a gain of six spots).

Here’s my point: Overhauling a defense takes time. Time to learn and perfect new concepts, and time to bring in / develop players to play in that system. It's not as dramatic as switching an option offense to a West Coast attack, but those who remember the 2004 season will recall the struggles.

The 3-3-5 should be a good system for NU. Tony White's 2022 Syracuse defense was 21st in Total Defense.

But it won't happen overnight.

Turnovers

A recurring theme in Nebraska's conference championship drought has been turnovers.

Near the end of the 2021 season, Dirk Chatelain calculated Nebraska's cumulative turnover margin since the Callahan era began.

It was not pretty.

I've updated that number with the rest of 2021 and the 2022 season. Since the start of the 2004 season (237 games) Nebraska's turnover margin is minus-99.

Minus-99 turnovers! No wonder Nebraska has won only 55% of its games in the last 19 years.

At the time of Dirk's column, NU was over 30 turnovers worse than the second-place team (Washington State). I assume a similar gap still exists.

If Nebraska wants to make a bowl game, they'll need to start winning the turnover battle. But it may not be easy.

Jeff Sims has thrown 23 interceptions in 25 career games. His ability to protect the ball - both as a passer and runner - will be critical. Ball security will also be important for the running backs, as fumbles have been a talking point during camp.

On the other side of the ball, I have no idea what to expect. Malcomb Hartzog led the 2022 team with three interceptions. None of the five Huskers who recovered a fumble in 2022 are still on the team. For what it's worth, the 2022 Syracuse team gained 19 turnovers, three more than the 2022 Husker defense.

Whew. Sometimes, reality can be a harsh slap in the face.

If you want to end on a more optimistic note, I’ve got you covered.