Huskers Analytics Review: A Quality, Ugly Win Against Cincinnati

It wasn’t always pretty in Kansas City, but the Huskers found a way to win their second consecutive one-score game.

Nebraska did plenty of things well in their opening night win, but the Huskers also took a big step back in several key areas since last season. While I think Nebraska could improve in some respects, these issues are likely to persist throughout the season. At the end of the day, it was still a win against a Power 4 opponent, and that is always worth celebrating.

Nebraska’s ceiling in 2025 will be capped by its worst units. If those units can improve from some of the worst in college football to just “below average” units, Nebraska could have a great season.

This is a much different Husker defense from the 2024 unit. Last season, the Blackshirts joined 2019 Georgia as the only two programs to make it to the halfway point of the season with norushing touchdowns allowed. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby ran two touchdowns in the first game. The Bearcats ran the ball exceptionally well. Their 0.52 EPA per rush (a measure of how much each play accounts for points scored) ranks in the 98th percentile for performance in a game. Nebraska won’t win many games if it defends the run like one of the worst teams in the nation all season.

Advanced stats breakdown for Nebraska and Cincinnati. | Game on Paper

However, defensive scheme changes could help mitigate the damage done primarily by Brendan Sorsby. I was hoping to see the Blackshirts spy on Sorsby more closely on the final drive to contain the damage he caused with his legs. He accounted for 19 of the Bearcats’ 58 yards on their final drive on the ground. While the Huskers aren’t going to find replacements for Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher easily, they can create scheme adjustments to become an average team against the run in 2025.

The passing defense was special in Kansas City. They held Cincinnati to just 69 yards passing, the Blackshirts’ third-best of the CFP era. The secondary will need to be a strength for the defense in 2025 to help balance a vulnerable rushing defense. I wrote in the offseason that Malcolm Hartzog Jr. may be a long shot to break the Huskers’ all-time interception record. His key play Thursday night brought him one step closer to that mark.

The Huskers’ offense played well at the start of Dylan Raiola’s second season. Nebraska held the ball for 39:30 against the Bearcats – the most in the Matt Rhule era at Nebraska. It was also the least Cincinnati had the ball since 2022. If Nebraska can control the ball like that throughout the entire season, it will keep the defense rested.

Win probability by play. | Game on Paper

In 2024, I expected the Huskers to have a very explosive offense thanks to the addition of superstar quarterback Raiola. Nebraska ranked among the bottom 15 teams in 2024 for explosive play rate, with just 6.7% of plays. Against Cincinnati, just four of the Huskers’ plays were “explosive” ( > 2.4 EPA on a pass, > 1.8 EPA on a rush). On the Huskers’ final touchdown of the night, Dana Holgorsen showed why he’s such a skilled playcaller—the run on third down perfectly set up the play action look on fourth down. I expect Nebraska to generate more explosive plays later in the season from looks set up in earlier games.

The opener for the 2025 season was a positive step forward, but it also highlighted several areas where Nebraska needs to improve before conference play. Nebraska will be a significantly different team in 2025 than it was in 2024. The dominant run defense of 2024 will likely be a liability in 2025. The abysmally ranked special teams unit of 2024 has the potential to improve significantly in 2025. If Nebraska’s worst units can perform at a “below average” level in 2025, Nebraska will likely win nine games and be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

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