Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Huskers’ Road to Indy Is About to Get Way Tougher
Let's talk Big Ten scheduling.
Specifically, the new "Flex Protect Plus"* that was rolled out by the conference last week. It eliminates divisions, gives Nebraska one guaranteed game (Iowa), and sets up a rotation of the 14 other schools.
*"Flex Project Plus" is a quintessential Big Ten creation. Needlessly stuffy, with a hint of corporate buzz-speak. The only thing they’re missing is a forced tie-in to freedom, heroes or tailgating.
Memo to the league office: we're talking about a scheduling model for football games, not insurance products or cyber security software.
Depending on your perspective, there is a lot to like about Flex Protect Plus.
- It protects the rivalries and silly trophies that make the Big Ten special.
- It gives student-athletes (and fans) the chance to see more of the league in a shorter timeframe: Between 2024 and 2025, Nebraska will face all 15 conference schools at least once.
- Fans - and the TV executives who are paying the bills - get more matchups between the "name brand" schools.
But as unapologetic Husker homer, I hate the scheduling changes and the elimination of divisions.
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As a die-hard Husker fan, I want my team to compete for - and win - championships. I’m old enough to remember when Nebraska – regularly – won championships. It was a lot of fun.
Teams earn the right to play for championships by winning conference games. Therefore, I want Nebraska to win as many games as possible … preferably by multiple touchdowns. Across a nine-game conference schedule, I'm okay with as many "easy"* games as possible, as it should theoretically lead to more wins.
*We are overdue to pause and acknowledge just how badly Nebraska has failed against their "easy" West division schedule. Prepare yourself, because this is going to hurt:
- Since the first year of the Big Ten West (2014), the Huskers are 18-35 against the West.
- In that nine-year span, Nebraska has a winning record against only one divisional foe: Illinois (5-4 since 2014, with three straight losses).
- In each of the last three seasons, Nebraska has managed just one win against the West division.
And while I want NU to play the easiest possible conference schedule, I understand that is not likely to happen.
As long as Nebraska is considered a name brand, blue blood program, they're going to get matched up with other name brand programs more often than they face the Indianas and Rutgers of the football world. Count on at least one of Nebraska’s “two-play opponents” (teams that get played twice in a two-year stretch) being another name brand school.
That's one of the ways Nebraska brings value to the $8 billion TV deal the conference signed last summer.
* * *
I've often said that I view a division title the same as a conference title in the old Big 8 days. There’s little difference between winning the Big Ten East, ACC Costal, or any other division and the old 8-10 team conferences.
To win you typically had to beat one Top-10 team, a handful of lower ranked and bowl eligible teams, and some filler. That applies to most of the Big 8 titles NU won in the Devaney/Osborne era, as well as the division titles won in the Big XII North/Big Ten Legends/Big Ten West.
Although Nebraska has not won the Big Ten - let alone the West division - ever, their road to the championship game in Indianapolis has always been straightforward: Beat Wisconsin, Iowa and a couple of other teams* to win the West.
*Another quick pause to address Tom Shatel’s use of “slumming” to describe the Big Ten West.
Yikes.
On one hand, he’s not wrong: The current Big Ten West is not exactly a murder’s row of college football juggernauts. You won't find a lot of West schools at the top of the recruiting or CFP rankings. You will find good coaching, established systems, and a realistic set of expectations.
There's a reason Iowa has been doing the same thing since Bill Clinton was in office: It works (enough) to keep their fans and administration happy. Purdue can - and does - beat Top 10 teams, but they haven't won 10 games in a season since 1979. We could do this for the rest of the West, but you get the point.
But on the other hand, I don’t know how Shatel can drop the “slumming” line without acknowledging that Nebraska has been worse. Put it this way:
Let’s say I want to complain about my neighbors’ yards. They’re not mowed, have some weeds, and don’t resemble a country club.
Meanwhile, my yard is brown and wilted. For the past five years, it has suffered severe frost damage, while I talked about how close it is to looking like Augusta National. I’ve got a new lawn guy with a track record of results, but it may take a few years.
Where were we? Ah yes, the theoretical “easy path” to the conference championship Nebraska should have taking advantage of in the West division instead of allowing Melvin Gordon to run for a million yards.
With head-to-head matchups against the division, you control your destiny. Then, play “Any Given Saturday” with whatever beast comes out of the East.
I believe new head coach Matt Rhule is laying the foundation to rebuild Nebraska, and could finally get the Huskers in a position to take advantage of the West.
But it looks like the window will close before that can happen.
* * *
Starting in 2024, it will be easier to qualify for the College Football Playoff than the Big Ten Championship game.
To qualify for the championship game a team will need to beat out a minimum of 14 other schools, many of which they won't play. In 2024, there are multiple scenarios where three different Big Ten teams could finish undefeated. While that seems unlikely, I suspect we'll see a season where one team goes 9-0 and three teams end up tied at 7-2. Who goes to the championship game?
Why bother with settling it on the field with divisions when you can enjoy the minutiae of tiebreaker rules!
As you probably know, Nebraska has not won a conference championship since 1999.
Even if Rhule gets things rebuilt to some level of success, that drought is likely to continue. At some point, we’re going to look back on the Big Ten West and realize the decade-long opportunity that the Huskers were unable to seize.
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While I think the “Flex Protect Plus” schedule sucks for Nebraska, they did get one thing right: Having Iowa as Nebraska's "protected rival" makes perfect sense.
If you want to cling to the notion that Nebraska has no rivals, or that Iowa is "not worthy" of being NU's rival, I won't stop you. I'll point out that you're wrong, but I won't stop you.
This is not the 1980s when NU-OU was THE rivalry in the entire sport. It is not the 1990s when Nebraska could get away with looking down their nose at the Colorados and Kansas States of the world.
College football is a sport that is defined by rivalries. The game is fueled by 24/7/365 trash talk, memes, and scoreboard pointing between fan bases.
Nebraska and Iowa may not be there yet, but it is definitely headed in that direction - with or without that stupid Heroes Trophy and its corporate sponsor.
Above, I mentioned Nebraska won only one game against the Big Ten West in 2022.
That sucks.
But admit it: knowing that win was against Iowa and kept them from playing for the championship takes away a lot of the pain.
