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Nebraska-Northern Illinois Football Matchups
The matchups to watch in Saturday night’s Husker football home opener don’t need to be complicated. Number 1 might be the only one that matters.
1. Turnover battle
I’m not sure how to categorize it as a personnel matchup, but the turnover margin is probably the most important statistic for Nebraska’s foreseeable future. Everybody acknowledges this one. If Nebraska finishes even or positive in team turnovers versus Northern Illinois, it’s highly unlikely that Nebraska would lose. It doesn’t matter who starts or plays at quarterback for Nebraska: they need to take care of the football. Nebraska is averaging four turnovers per game and just one takeaway per game. As described below, there should be opportunities for the Nebraska defense to force more this week, but will the offense finally take care of the ball?
Advantage: Northern Illinois
2. Nebraska’s offensive line vs. Northern Illinois’ defensive front
The strength of Northern Illinois’ defense is the front seven. They have solid personnel, plus they move people around to make it harder on the opposing offensive lineman to match up correctly. If Nebraska comes out with an extra tight end and/or a fullback, they will likely match numbers to keep an edge in the box. Nebraska’s offensive line has struggled at times (to put it mildly) in pass protection, mostly from the left side. Is this the week that Teddy Prochazka returns to play the left offensive tackle?
The O-line has had more success getting an initial push when running the ball. If the numbers are even, they should be able to continue to push the line of scrimmage back to set up positive yards. How will they matchup against superior defensive numbers in the box? I suspect that they will throw the ball in a lot of short RPOs. This could be trouble, leading to potential interceptions from either an inexperienced Haarberg or a gimpy Sims.
If Nebraska can have success running the ball, it will make everything else go smoother, but that could be tough going early on in the game.
Slight Advantage: Northern Illinois
3. Rocky Lombardi (QB for Northern Illinois) vs. Tony White (defensive coordinator for Nebraska)
Lombardi is making a return trip to Memorial Stadium as he was the starting QB for Michigan State in the snow game in 2018, which Nebraska won, 9-6. Lombardi is a sixth-year senior who has struggled with interceptions. Tony White’s 3-3-5 defense is a Swiss Army knife that can be reconfigured to make whatever tool is needed, and there will be a lot of looks and shifts and stunts thrown at Lombardi. The Nebraska secondary has struggled to force turnovers, but with the help of a lot of pressure from the defensive front, that is likely to change this week. Nebraska’s defense was tied for the lead in the nation for sacks after last week’s game, and they will likely add several to that total tomorrow as Lombardi is not a scrambling QB. The Northern Illinois offensive line is good, but White’s defense throws so much at them, and much of it will be new and at speeds they can’t easily replicate with a scout team. Multiple sacks and multiple turnovers are likely.
Huge Advantage: Nebraska
Conclusion: Nebraska will win. If they have 1 or 0 turnovers and run the ball successfully, the Huskers will win big. It could be close through the first half, but Nebraska should pull away in the second half.
