Notre Dame's Sweet 16 Odds: Computer Model Analyzes TCU Matchup

Notre Dame's first loss of the 2024-25 season came in the Cayman Islands Classic against TCU

Notre Dame guards Hannah Hidalgo (3), Sonia Citron (11) and Cassandre Prosper (8) celebrate during the second round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament between Notre Dame and Michigan at Purcell Pavilion on Sunday, March 23, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame women's basketball had a memorable regular season in 2024-25 but didn't hit the NCAA Tournament on a high note. The Fighting Irish, who were undefeated in the ACC until the final days of the regular season, lost three of their final five games before the NCAA Tournament.

However, that all seemed to be washed away this past weekend as Notre Dame obliterated both Stephen F. Austin and Michigan on its way to a fourth-straight Sweet 16 appearance.

Now awaiting the Fighting Irish in Birmingham will be TCU, a team that beat Notre Dame back in late November. Can Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles, Sonia Citron, and company get revenge on that early-season defeat?

Massey Ratings Project Notre Dame vs. TCU Sweet 16 Game

Job’s not finished!!

see you in Birmingham ☘️#GoIrish pic.twitter.com/iPApDPFk93

— Notre Dame Women's Basketball (@ndwbb) March 23, 2025

The Massey Ratings are a long-running computer model that uses in-depth numbers to put out rankings and project games. Despite what happened in the Cayman Islands earlier this season, the Massey Ratings see a very good future for Notre Dame against TCU next Saturday.

Massey Ratings projected score: Notre Dame 73, TCU 66

Massey Ratings chances of victory: Notre Dame 68%, TCU 32%

Notre Dame and TCU will square off Saturday in Birmingham with the Sweet 16 tip-off time still to be determined.