2020 Preview: Notre Dame QB Ian Book
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book enters his second season as the full-time starter in South Bend, and its his third season where he will be the primary starter. The fifth-year senior heads into his final season with the Irish going 20-3 in games he starts.
He has been a statistically productive player and has led the Irish to a lot of wins, but there is still much to prove for the veteran quarterback. How effectively he can answer the primary questions surrounding his game will largely determine just how good the Irish will be in 2020.
Let’s dive into the 2020 season preview for quarterback Ian Book by first taking a look at his career production.
Get Back To Precision Passing
Book was not as effective with the short and intermediate throws in 2019 as he was in 2018. His yards per attempt, yards per completion and pass efficiency rating in the short zones (1-10 yards past the line of scrimmage) of the field. His completion rate also dipped over five percent.
His game took a substantial step back in the intermediate zones (11-19 yards past the line of scrimmage). Book’s completion rate went from 61.4% in 2018 to 48.4% in 2019. His yards per completion was one a yard less this past season, his yards per attempt was three yards less and his pass efficiency rating went from 171.74 in 2018 to 145.31 in 2019.
In 2020, Book must be more precise in the short to intermediate zones. His overall accuracy took a dip last season, and that goes beyond just a five-percent dip from a completion percentage standpoint.
Beyond the statistics, there is a practical reason he must be more precise in these zones in 2020, and that is the skillset of the receivers requires more precision to accent their skills. He was bailed out often by Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet last season, but the smaller/faster wideouts need to get hit on the run more frequently if they are going to do the damage they are capable of, and they aren’t the kind of athletes to make the contested catches we saw from the big boys the last two seasons.
If Book plays more like the 2018 version of himself, with a bit more precision, he and wideouts like Braden Lenzy, Lawrence Keys III, Kevin Austin and tight end Tommy Tremble will write some beautiful music together.
Trust His Deep Ball Ability
While his short to intermediate game took a step back, Book was much better throwing the ball down the field (20 yards or more past the line).
His yards per attempt average was up over three yards, and Book’s completion rate jumped from 40.8% in 2018 to 52.4% in 2019. Book had five touchdowns and three picks on 49 deep attempts in 2018, but he threw 10 touchdowns and three picks on 63 deep attempts in 2019.
He showed in 2019 that he has the arm strength to make these throws, and he’ll have a lot of speed on the field alongside him in 2020. If his downfield accuracy, both over the middle and on the perimeter, carries into 2020 he’ll be in position to make some big time throws.
Be More Aggressive/Confident
Book was up-and-down from an aggressiveness standpoint, but more often than not he was not nearly as aggressive as he needed to be.
He was more willing to take the downfield shots I just wrote about in games against inferior opponents, but he’s less comfortable taking those shots against better teams.
That needs to change.
I wrote about this when breaking down Book’s 2021 Draft prospects, but he must be more willing to make throws in tighter windows. He must be more willing to take the one-on-one shots on the outside, and he must be more confident climbing the pocket and letting it rip down the field.
Play With Better Timing/Anticipation
Much of this analysis is building blocks, and the building block for taking and making tougher throws is playing with better an anticipation, and throwing with better timing.
Book must find a better rhythm working through his reads/progressions, and he must do a much better job of anticipating openings and not actually waiting for receivers to get open.
Being a bit cleaner - and less choppy - with his footwork in the pocket will be part of that. Far too often, Book’s footwork in the pocket gets really fast, and that causes him to go through his reads too quickly. This gets Book out of position when he does see an opening, and too often being late getting to that point will cause him to simply not let loose of the ball.
If Book is able to find that rhythm, throw with better anticipation and be more aggressive his game could explode in 2020.
Must Play Better In Big Game
At the end of the day, Book must play better in big games. Playing better means doing all the things I talked about above in those games.
Book had impressive numbers last season, and his production the last two seasons, when taken without any context, is impressive. He’s thrown for 5,649 yards and 52 touchdowns, and rushed for 826 yards and eight more touchdowns in his 22 starts the last two seasons.
If you’re looking to just push the “Book is great” narrative you’ll point to these kinds of stats. But if you actually care about Book playing championship football then you must be willing to accept and address the fact he’s dominated inferior opponents, and he’s been average to poor against the top teams on the schedule.
Book simply must play better in the big games in 2020: Clemson, Wisconsin, USC, Louisville.
Over the last two seasons, Book completed 67.4% of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, 13.1 yards per completion and had a 170.10 passer efficiency against opponents with a losing record. Those are great numbers, and Book and Notre Dame were 9-0 in those games.
During that same stretch (2018-19), he has started five games against opponents that finished the season ranked in the Top 25, and Book/Notre Dame is just 2-3 in those contests.
Book completed just 55.9% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, 11.5 yards per completion, 228.6 yards per game and had a 118.71 passer efficiency rating in those games.
If you remove the rain-soaked Michigan game the numbers aren’t much better (7.0 YPA, 11.8 YPC, 59.9 comp. %, 126.76 efficiency).
Compare that to other top quarterbacks (Michigan game removed):
Justin Fields, Ohio State — 8.7 YPA, 14.0 YPC, 255.2 YPG, 160.13 efficiency, 12 TD, 2 INT
Sam Ehlinger, Texas — 8.0 YPA, 12.1 YPC, 275.3 YPG, 148.60 efficiency, 14 TD, 3 INT
Kyle Trask, Florida — 7.8 YPA, 12.7 YPC, 267.0 YPG, 146.97 efficiency, 7 TD, 1 INT
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson — 8.1 YPA, 13.5 YPC, 252.0 YPG, 144.38 efficiency, 8 TD, 0 INT
Brock Purdy, Iowa State — 7.9 YPA, 12.6 YPC, 295.2 YPG, 144.38 efficiency, 10 TD, 2 INT
Kedon Slovis, USC - 6.4 YPA, 10.0 YPC, 259.7 YPG, 131.59 efficiency, 7 TD, 3 INT
Ian Book, Notre Dame — 7.0 YPA, 11.8 YPC, 267.5 YPG, 126.76 efficiency, 6 TD, 4 INT
If Book can play against the better teams on the schedule like he did against opponents like Navy, Bowling Green and Stanford (both years) then he will not only have great statistics, he’ll play championship football.
And isn’t that what the standard for a Notre Dame quarterback should be?
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