Irish Breakdown

ESPN Computer Model Projects Winner for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State National Championship

The model suggests this one might be a lot closer than the massive point spread
Nick Shepkowski|
Sep 23, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman and Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium.
Sep 23, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman and Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

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Notre Dame Fighting IrishOhio State Buckeyes

Notre Dame and Ohio State may be two of the absolute biggest brands in college football and reside just 253 miles apart, but the history between the college football megaprograms is relatively small.

Notre Dame and Ohio State have met just eight times historically with the Buckeyes holding a 6-2 edge, having won the last six matchups.

The two will meet in the national championship game after Ohio State beat Texas on Friday night and it'll be the third year in a row the two crossed paths.

What are the chances this one ends better for Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame than the last two?

ESPN FPI Odds for National Championship:

Notre Dame chances of victory: 44.7%
Ohio State chances of victory: 55.3%

For comparisons sake, ESPN FPI listed Notre Dame as having a 56.1% chance to beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and a 58.8% chance of beating Penn State in the Orange Bowl previous to kickoff.

With as close as both those games were played on the field the model certainly suggests a more even matchup than the opening pointspread indicates.

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Betting Information:

Notre Dame captains celebrate an Orange Bowl win over Penn Stat
Jan 9, 2025; Miami, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jack Kiser (24) defensive lineman Howard Cross III (56) Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts (0) and quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrate deafening the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The betting odds for the college football national championship according to Fan Duel on the morning of January 11, 2025:

Point spread: Ohio State -9.5
Total: 45.5
Money lines: Ohio State -410, Notre Dame +315

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Nick Shepkowski
NICK SHEPKOWSKI

Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. Started covering Chicago sports teams for WSCR the Score, and over the years worked with CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports as a contributor before running the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.

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