ESPN FPI Drops Notre Dame: What It Means for the Irish Playoff Hopes

Notre Dame rallied late, but couldn't ultimately come back to beat Miami on Sunday

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman during the Notre Dame Blue-Gold spring football game at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, April 12, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Sunday night's season-opener for Notre Dame went about as poorly as it could have in Miami.

OK, perhaps that's an overstatement, as the Irish only lost by three to a very good Miami team, but there were issues all over the field for the Fighting Irish. To me, none more so than the fact that both the offensive and defensive lines were overmatched throughout the evening.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) updated overnight, following Notre Dame's loss. As you would probably expect, Notre Dame's College Football Playoff chances took a hit, as did their chances to win in almost all 11 remaining games. Check it all out below.

September 13: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) breaks free and runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 69.25%, Texas A&M 30.5%

Previously: Notre Dame up 0.3% since last week

September 20: Notre Dame vs. Purdue

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 96.6%, Purdue 3.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.5% from last week

September 27: Notre Dame at Arkansas

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 67.8%, Arkansas 32.2%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.2% from last week

October 4: Notre Dame vs. Boise State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 92.1%, Boise State 7.9%

Previously: Notre Dame up 6.3% from last week

October 11: Notre Dame vs. NC State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 90.6%, North Carolina State 9.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.4% from last week

October 18: Notre Dame vs. USC

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 56.3%, USC 43.7%

Previously: Notre Dame down 16.2% from last week

November 1: Notre Dame at Boston College

Sep 16, 2017; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Dexter Williams (2) scores a touchdown in front of Boston College Eagles cornerback Kamrin Moore (5) in the fourth quarter at Alumni Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 80.0%, Boston College 20.0%

Previously: Notre Dame down 5.0% from last week

November 8: Notre Dame vs. Navy

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 93.1%, Navy 6.9%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.4% from last week

November 15: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 80.4%, Pittsburgh 19.6%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.8% from last week

November 22: Notre Dame vs. Syracuse

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 90.6%, Syracuse 9.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.5% from last week

November 29: Notre Dame at Stanford

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 88.4%, Stanford 11.6%

Previously: Notre Dame up 3.0% since last week

ESPN FPI's Notre Dame Rest of Season Odds:

ESPN FPI has Notre Dame projected for the rest of Notre Dame's season.

Projected record: 9.0-3.0, down from 9.8-2.2

Win Out: 10.1%

6 or more wins: 99.6% (down 0.3%)

Make College Football Playoff: 32.4% (down 23.4%)

Make National Championship Game: 5.5% (down 5.9%)

Win National Championship: 2.3% (down 3.1%)

Nick Shepkowski's Lasting Thoughts:

The two most interesting numbers to me on the entire FPI projection list are the Texas A&M game and USC.

Texas A&M has a downright nasty offensive line, much like Miami. Yet FPI trusts Notre Dame more after Sunday's showing to beat the Aggies, albeit just slightly.

USC is loved by the system for roughing up Missouri State. I don't question that USC is going to be better than preseason projections had them, but it simply did against a team making it's FBS debut what it should do.

There is a ton of season left, but Notre Dame needs to get the interior defensive line figured out fast, so Texas A&M doesn't do the same thing to it in 12 days.