Notre Dame’s Doomsday Scenario: What Could Derail the Irish This Weekend

Notre Dame (7-2) continues its College Football Playoff push this weekend with what should be its most difficult remaining task, a stop at Pittsburgh (7-2). Notre Dame could win by 30, could be challenged and sneak out a close win, or could even fall.

There's a way that Notre Dame's result doesn't ultimately end up mattering, though, because things went horribly wrong in the SEC - at least with how the Fighting Irish are concerned.

This Weekend's Ranked Matchups in College Football

Notre Dame is playing one of what will be at least three games between two teams ranked in this week's College Football Playoff top 25. Two more of these games take place in the SEC as Oklahoma travels to Alabama and Georgia plays host to Texas. There is also a chance when the new rankings come out on Tuesday, Iowa will stay in the top 25 despite losing to Oregon this past week. That would make its game at USC a battle of ranked teams as well.

Saturday's ranked matchups (last week's ratings used as this week's aren't updated until Tuesday night):

Noon ET: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 24 Pittsburgh

3:30 p.m. ET: No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama

3:30 p.m. ET: No. 20 Iowa at No. 19 USC

7:30 p.m. ET: No. 11 Texas at No. 5 Georgia

SEC Matchups Hold Keys to Notre Dame's Playoff Outlook

The ranked SEC games this weekend could put Notre Dame's playoff hopes in jeopardy, regardless of if the Irish handle business at Pittsburgh.

One would certainly figure that the favorites winning the SEC games would essentially eliminate the losers from CFP contention. Both Oklahoma and Texas already have two losses, and a third would spell doom.

But what if both win?

Wins by both Texas and Oklahoma would kickstart the campaign for both to be in the College Football Playoff. They'd both improve to 8-2 on the year, and each would then have a bigger win than Notre Dame currently has on its resume.

Notre Dame's biggest win of the season is currently over USC, who still has to host Iowa this weekend and travel to Oregon by season's end. The two-loss Trojans could end up with three or four losses, and potentially fall out of the rankings altogether.

The same goes for Pittsburgh, who is ranked this week, but has both Notre Dame and Miami left in its final three games of the season.

Oklahoma and Texas's Remaining Schedules

If Oklahoma is able to knock off Alabama than you can probably start printing playoff shirts for those in Norman. The Sooners have a trip to Missouri next week, but the Tigers have lost their starting quarterback for the year, and a host LSU the final week of the regular season. Stranger things have happened but it would appear Saturday will decide if Oklahoma is a 10-win, playoff team, or a nine-win Citrus Bowl squad.

For Texas, the remaining road isn't quite as clear after it travels to Georgia. If it survives Athens, then a home date with Arkansas awaits next week before the regular season ends hosting currently unbeaten Texas A&M. Texas has been a different team away from home this season, which makes the Texas A&M game perhaps a bit more attainable for it.

Notre Dame Rooting Guide:

After starting the year with two losses, Notre Dame has spent much of 2025 hoping for those teams ahead of it to fall. While Texas still has a tough one left that could hand it another loss, the best bet for Notre Dame this weekend, aside from taking care of business itself, is for both Oklahoma and Texas to lose, and to eliminate the threat of either passing a two-loss Notre Dame team altogether.

The good news for Notre Dame is that even if it gets passed by Oklahoma and Texas in the above scenario, that with what is likely a No. 9 ranking in this week's CFP rankings, slightly more wiggle room is allotted. However, it wouldn't hurt to see BYU, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Miami suffer another loss by season's end to be safe.