Notre Dame Football: 3 Key Numbers That Could Decide the Showdown With Miami

It's been 223 days since No. 6 Notre Dame’s last football game. But the day has finally arrived. The Fighting Irish are set to take on No. 10 Miami (7:30 p.m. ET) on the road, in a highly anticipated top ten matchup. Here are three numbers that may ultimately decide the outcome of Sunday night’s game:

1.12

Jan 20, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Leonard Moore (15) against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the CFP National Championship college football game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In 2024, Notre Dame had 15 turnovers on the season, while it forced 33 of them (led the nation). That was good for a turnover margin of 1.12 – which ranked fifth in all of college football (and third including only Power Four teams). On the flip side, Miami had a mediocre turnover margin of just 0.15.

But considering the revamped Hurricanes roster (more on that later), that number doesn’t hold a ton of water heading into Week 1. As for The Fighting Irish, redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Carr may not immediately take care of the ball as well as Riley Leonard did last year, but the defense should have no problem picking up where it left off in 2024.

Expect Notre Dame to force a couple of turnovers, while Carr’s ability to take care of the football on offense may serve as the deciding factor on Sunday night.

923

Apr 12, 2025; Notre Dame, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) throws a pass during the Blue-Gold game at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Stay with us for this one, it requires some complex mathematics. Miami quarterback Carson Beck has thrown 923 career passes, while Notre Dame’s CJ Carr has attempted a whopping zero. That gives us a difference of… 923 passes. In college football, experience is everything – especially at the quarterback position.

Beck is a veteran in every sense of the word, and Carr, well, not so much. But how much will that actually matter in Week 1? Considering offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock will likely ease Carr into things, and ride the coattails of the running back

Jeremiyah Love, there may not be cause for concern. Then again, if Notre Dame needs points in a hurry and is forced to turn to the passing game, will Carr be ready for his moment? One can only wait and see, but it’s safe to say Miami has the upper hand at the quarterback position in the season-opener for both squads.

Six

Jan 20, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) holds on to a catch against Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Christian Gray (29) during the second half the CFP National Championship college football game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Fighting Irish bring back six starters from their 2024 defense, including nearly their entire second and third levels. On the defensive line, Notre Dame returns just Joshua Burnham (who likely won’t start). But the Fighting Irish are loaded with experience at linebacker and in the secondary, and have well-established chemistry and cohesion.

Notre Dame CB Leonard Moore (#15) just clamping Zachariah Branch at the bottom of the screen pic.twitter.com/jvsslLJbiP
— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) August 3, 2025

As for the Hurricanes, they bring back just three 2024 starters on offense – each of whom resides on the offensive line. The lack of offensive continuity, especially paired with Notre Dame’s defensive prowess, may make Beck’s job quite the uphill battle in Week 1.