Digging Deep: Notre Dame Home Success vs. USC Road Woes
INTRODUCTION
I literally can’t remember a time in my life when I wasn’t aware of, and interested in, Notre Dame football. Some of my earliest memories are of watching games with my father (Class of 1967) and grandfather and great uncle (two of the original “Subway Alums”, Catholic fans living in the New York metropolitan area who would ride the subway to watch Notre Dame play at Yankee Stadium). So that’s my starting point.
Similarly, I absolutely love the game of football. I played the game in youth leagues and then in high school. When my (lack of) talent took me as far as it could go, I was still driven to learn more about the game. I’ve gone to coaching clinics, endlessly talked shop with friends who played in college and beyond, and immersed myself in the statistics and information available online.
I’m no mathematical guru with algorithms that I’ve created to predict wins and losses. People like Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau have that market cornered. They do great work and I’d encourage people to seek it out.
What I am is a lifelong ND fan, a guy who gets obsessive about the things he likes, who simply enjoys trying to look at ND and college football in a way that is fun, interesting and well informed. Welcome to my crazy little world! Let’s get down to business and take a look at some important factors heading into this Saturday night’s rivalry game against Southern Cal.
DEFENDING THE HOUSE THAT ROCK BUILT
Much has been said and written about the changes that Brian Kelly made in the wake of the disaster that was the 2016 season. The obvious nadir that year was the blowout loss against SC in the Coliseum. (On the flip side, the end of that season was the obvious high point for the Trojans under Clay Helton)
One of the most significant ways in which the program has benefited is in the ability to consistently win at home. Since the start of 2017, Notre Dame is 15-1 at home and has won 14 straight since the one-point loss to the Georgia team that finished that season ranked #2 in the country.
While there have been closer than expected, clunky performances (Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt and Ball State in 2018, Navy in 2017) overall the Irish have played an obviously winning, dominating brand of football in Notre Dame Stadium.
The recent 15 point win over #20 Virginia, last season’s wire to wire win over Michigan as well as the 21 point beat down of Stanford, and the back to back pummelings of ranked USC (49-14) and North Carolina State (35-14) in 2017 come to mind. Five more of the wins were by anywhere from 21 to 52 points. It is impossible to be a good, let alone elite, program without this kind of success at home.
SOUTHERN CAL AWAY FROM THE COLISEUM
This brings us to looking at USC, as well as the general difficulty of winning on the road in college football. Many of the screwy, out of left field upsets that help define each college football season occur when a team has to leave the comforts of home. Look at Ohio State the last two seasons, or Clemson losing to 4-8 Syracuse in 2017.
It’s why the 2018 dogfight against a crappy USC team wasn’t unexpected as ND tried to close out an undefeated regular season. It’s the reason why going into the Big House and vanquishing Michigan in two weeks is likely to be anything but a cakewalk.
But back to the Trojans. Few teams have been as consistently poor in road games since the start of 2017 as Coach Helton and the Men of Troy.
Overall, in that span they are 5-8 in true road games. The combined record of the five teams USC defeated was 24-37.
Since 2018 they are 2-6 in true road games.
This season they are 0-2 in true road games.
Their last road victory was last season over an Oregon State team that finished 2-10.
The last time USC won a road game against a team that finished with a winning record was October 28, 2017, when they “bounced back” from the bludgeoning at the hands of ND and beat Arizona State 48-17. ASU finished that season with a 7-6 record.
Since 2017, the better a team’s overall record, the more likely it’s been that they would not just beat, but blowout, a visiting Trojan team.
In 2017:
USC lost 27-30 at Washington State to a Cougar team that finished 9-4 that season.
USC lost 14-49 at Notre Dame to an Irish team that finished #11 and went 10-3 that season.
In 2018:
USC lost 3-17 at Stanford to a Cardinal team that went 9-4 that season.
USC lost 14-37 at Texas to a Longhorn team that finished #9 and went 10-4 on the season.
USC lost 28-41 at Utah to a Utes team that went 9-5 that fall.
In 2019:
While it remains to be seen how their first two road opponents will fair the remainder of the season, thus far....
USC lost 27-30 at BYU to a Cougar team that is just 2-3 at this point.
USC lost 14-28 at Washington to a Husky team that is 4-2 and last week lost 23-13 to a Stanford team that USC routed at home.
THIS SATURDAY NIGHT
Looking at all this information, my brain is telling me that road games reveal the fundamental nature of USC under Helton - mentally weak, undisciplined, prone to self-inflicted errors, and unable to properly exploit their ungodly collection of offensive skill position talent in a manner that achieves victory.
Looking at all this information, my brain is telling me that home games reveal the fundamental nature of ND under Brian Kelly 2.0 - mentally tough, consistent, and capable of dispatching lesser teams. While not always pretty, there’s no getting around 15-1.
That’s my brain. But, as I told you at the start, it’s not just my brain that comes into play when rooting for the Irish. My heart and nervous system can painfully recall, like any lifelong can, all the times over these years when ND stumbled, lost games it had no business losing, etc.
So while I’ll have all this data in my brain, come 7:30 Saturday night I’ll be my typical nervous wreck self, waiting for the game and result to unfold. And I wouldn’t have it any other way.
