Midweek Musings
Thoughts on Notre Dame football, its recruiting efforts and college football.
2015: NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON
On October 15, 2015 the #6 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the #12 ranked Clemson Tigers squared off an in epic matchup. There was a lot of talent on the field that day, and the outcome had major ramifications for both programs.
It was an even matchup in many ways, at least from a talent standpoint on the field. Both teams were loaded with talent, but since then they’ve taken different roads.
Clemson used the win as a springboard to a rise to national prominence, playing for the national championship that season and then winning it all a season later. Clemson has since become a true college football powerhouse.
Notre Dame had a quality season in 2015, finishing with a 10-3 record, but while Clemson was winning a title the following season, the Irish were going through a disastrous 4-8 campaign. Notre Dame has recovered from that poor season in many ways, but there are still lingering effects.
Much has been made of Notre Dame’s inability to recruit “like the big boys.” But Clemson has only had one class that can be considered on the same level as the classes we see at Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, and that is its incoming freshman class.
In fact, heading into that 2015 matchup, Notre Dame actually recruited better than Clemson. From 2011 to 2015, the classes that made up those rosters, it was Notre Dame that had the higher ranked class (on the 247Sports composite rankings) in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. Clemson’s only higher ranked class was the 2015 group, which were true freshmen when the game was played.
If you prefer the NFL Draft as a better gauge of talent, the data once again favors Notre Dame. Breaking down the rosters and the players who played in that game, Notre Dame had more first round picks than Clemson (five to three), more combined players in rounds one through three (10 to seven) and more combined players in rounds one through four (11 to 10).
Let's be honest, that first round number for Notre Dame would have been six if linebacker Jaylon Smith doesn't get injured later that season.
Looking back, it was yet another missed opportunity for Notre Dame. Clemson used that win to change their program. Notre Dame, on the other hand, took a nose dive for a season before bouncing back with three quality seasons, but the gap between the two programs is much wider now than it was when they played in 2015.
Notre Dame had higher ranked classes in four of five seasons leading up to that game, but Clemson has recruited better in three of the next five seasons. In the last three years, Clemson has landed the 7th (2018), 10th (2019) and 3rd (2020) best classes, while Notre Dame has had the 10th (2018), 16th (2019) and 17th (2020) ranked classes.
What is interesting about Notre Dame’s recruiting efforts is the reality the program has struggled to land the high-end players in recent years it was able to land the first five years. Notre Dame landed six composite five-star players from 2011 to 2015, but in the five classes that followed that 2015 season the Irish have landed just one (Tommy Kraemer).
Notre Dame’s inability to develop the highly ranked quarterbacks it signed has also been a problem that has kept the Irish from getting over that hump.
What is interesting in this conversation is that from 2011 to 2020, Clemson and Notre Dame have split (5 to 5) when it comes to who had the higher ranked class. It would seem that Clemson has done a better job at quarterback and the Tigers have done a better job of developing their recruits.
Let’s not forget, the odds are strong that the first Clemson player to come off the draft board in 2020 is Isaiah Simmons, who was a three-star recruit.
Notre Dame will get a chance to flip the script in 2020. The Irish have a schedule that is set up nicely for the program to finally get over the hump, and the November 7 matchup against Clemson could be a program changer for the Irish in the same way the Tiger win over Notre Dame was back in 2015.
KEEP RECRUITING
Notre Dame fans got excited in December when head coach Brian Kelly stated the goal for the program was to land a “Top 5 recruiting class” in 2021. Yes, after 10 years Kelly finally realized the program was capable of landing a Top 5 class.
At the time it seemed like there was a strong chance at making that Top 5 class happen. Notre Dame was already ranked in the Top 5, and the program was in great shape with a number of top-level players.
Since then, Notre Dame lost Top 100 commit Deion Colzie, as the talented wideout decommitted. Notre Dame suffered through a number of losses on the recruiting trail between then and now, and the potential for landing an elite offensive line class has taken a major hit, and the five-star running back many thought was destined for South Bend (Will Shipley) is trending in the opposite direction.
Hopefully this doesn’t mean the staff is backing down from its goal to land an elite recruiting class. Part of that will be making sure they really push hard to land the top players they are already involved with (like Rocco Spindler, for example). The staff will also have to wisely reshape its board, as we are seeing at cornerback.
But the key to getting back on track and finishing in February with an elite class is Notre Dame doing something it has not done much of in recent seasons, and that is continuing to push HARD for players they have lost. Far too often when Notre Dame lost out on a player they would simply stop recruiting that player. We saw that last year with offensive tackle Jimmy Christ, who ultimately flipped to Penn State after initially picking Virginia.
There have been a couple of flips here and there, but for the most part the staff has not done a good job of continuing to push for players they lost. That cannot happen in the 2021 class.
For example, if Notre Dame does miss out on Shipley they need to keep recruiting him like he’s wide open. Don’t back down, don’t stop pushing for a visit and stay on him. Clemson will certainly do the same thing if Shipley picks Notre Dame. This is true across the board, the staff absolutely must continue recruiting players they have lost, or players they are not high up the list right now.
That is the way Notre Dame can land the true difference makers it has not been getting enough of in recent seasons.
RANKING THE QUARTERBACKS
My rankings for the Top 10 quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft class.
1. Joe Burrow, LSU — Part of the reason I predicted LSU to be in the College Football Playoff prior the 2019 season was my belief that Burrow was a big-time quarterback. I was impressed with what I saw from him in 2018 while playing in an awful offensive system. When he finally got his chance to run a real offense he dominated. He doesn’t have an elite arm, but all the intangibles are there for him to be a franchise quarterback.
2. Jordan Love, Utah State — A smart GM/head coach is going to realize how wasted he was in 2019, which is a trend for the coach who dragged that offense down at Utah State. I love this kid’s game, no pun intended. Love has a big arm, he’s athletic, I love his release and if you put him on a roster like Notre Dame’s he would have put together a Top 10 draft pick career. If he goes to the right team he will be an outstanding NFL quarterback.
3. Justin Herbert, Oregon — For me, there’s a drop off after the first two quarterbacks because there are so many question marks with the rest of the guys on this board. Herbert will likely be a Top 10 pick, and I get why. He has a big arm, he’s a quality athlete, he has a lot of experience and he was productive. But I’ve never been fond of how he handled big-moment situations and he never looked super comfortable working through progressions well.
4. Jake Fromm, Georgia — Yes, this will likely be a controversial ranking and comment, but Fromm in my view is Burrow before they changed systems. He doesn’t have Burrows arm or athleticism, but he can match him with intangibles. Fromm was ruined by the system he played in, but he is a winner, he’s a leader, he’s accurate, he does a great job working through progressions and put him in the right system with talent around him and he’ll shine in my view.
5. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama — Having Tagovailoa this low is two-fold. One, his injury history is incredibly troubling and I don’t care how you spin it. Two, I’m just not high on Tagovailoa as a quarterback, at least in regard to him being a first round pick. He’s just not a first round quarterback in my view. He was surrounded by truly elite talent, but I’ve never loved his timing/anticipation as a passer and that is very important in the NFL.
I also didn’t think he played all that well against the three best defenses he faced (UGA, Clemson and Mississippi State in 2018). He had five interceptions in those three games (4 TD’s), completed just 57.5% of his passes and averaged just 7.8 yards per attempt.
6. Jacob Eason, Washington — Eason has first round arm strength, but he lacks finesse and mobility. If he can go to a traditional drop back offense with a good offensive line, and a system that likes to throw the ball downfield he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL, but he’ll need the talent around him to thrive. He’s not a guy that will carry a franchise, at least not based on what I’ve seen from him in college.
7. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma — Likely another controversial pick. Hurts was an excellent college player, and how he handled getting benched in 2018 and how he came off the bench in the SEC title game endeared me to him forever. But looking at his NFL projections I just don’t see a starting caliber player. He’s got a good arm, but his progressions have always been a bit slow and he’s not a natural thrower in my view. He’s like Herbert in a lot of ways, but he doesn’t have the physical tools that Herbert possesses.
8. Jake Luton, Oregon State — If I’m at team looking for a mid to late round backup quarterback I’m jumping all over Luton. He’s huge, can power the ball into the intermediate zones and his issues throwing the deep ball are correctable. He had a 28-3 TD to INT ratio this season. The issue is he’s struggled to stay healthy, which is why he dropped for me.
9. James Morgan, Florida International — Morgan has great size and he’s a quality athlete. He also has a big arm and he threw for 8,654 yards while starting four seasons (two at Bowling Green, two at Florida International). He’s a decent late round option for a team looking or depth at the position.
10. Cole McDonald, Hawaii — The wild card in this draft. He’s got some tools that entice me, but he seems like an odd kid and he’s got some really bad mechanical flaws that would need to be worked out, but there are some tools to work with for sure.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
This is a selfish one for me and has nothing to do with Notre Dame, but watching the Denver/Atlanta Super Bowl on Fox the other day was a lot of fun as a Broncos fan. Even at 38 with busted up knees and a bad elbow, John Elway could still dominate.
FILM TO WATCH
Continuing to take a look at top defensive backs on the board for Notre Dame. One of my favorites is Los Angeles (Calif.) Loyola defensive back Ceyair Wright.
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