Five Stars And The NFL Draft: Part II
Recruiting is a risky affair whether you are pushing for a five-star recruit, an unranked player and everything in between. We've seen first round NFL Draft picks from every star ranking, and some with no stars.
Five-star recruits, however, will always get the most attention from recruitniks and recruiting services.
Like everything else, some pan out, some don't. We already broke down the overall draft success of every 247Sports composite five-star recruit from the 2011 to 2016 recruiting classes.
Now let's look at which classes had the most success, and which was the most underachieving group.
The 2011 recruiting class was without question the most disappointing class, at least in terms of the NFL Draft. Just 23.3% of the 30 five-star recruits were picked in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.
It's 43.3% undrafted rate is impressively bad. Four of the Top 10 players in the class went undrafted and two were fifth round picks, while only two were first rounders.
The 2012 and 2013 classes were much better. Both classes had more players taken in the first two rounds (40.5% in 2012, 45.7% in 2013) than went in the seventh round or went undrafted (37.8% in 2012, 37.1% in 2013).
Only 21 players from the 2016 class are out of college.
The 2014 class was the most productive, and the 2015 class only beats the 2011 class in regards to the lightest high-level draft production.
Of the 33 five-stars in the 2014. class, 51.5% were picked in the first two rounds while just 36.4% went in the seventh round or failed to get picked.
BY POSITION
Let's look at which years had the best production at each position and which classes had the worst.
Quarterback
Best Class: 2015 (Kyler Murray, Josh Rosen)
Worst Class: Tie - 2014 (Kyle Allen), 2016 (Jacob Eason, Shea Patterson)
An interesting data point is that of the 12 five-star quarterbacks in these classes, eight ultimately transferred.
Running Back
Best Class: 2014 (Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon)
Worst Class: 2015 (Damien Harris, Soso Jamabo)
The 2014 running back class was absolutely loaded. With five players being taken in the Top 50. Without off-the-field issues the odds are good that former Oklahoma running back Joe Mixon would have ended up much higher than No. 48 overall.
Wide Receiver
Best Class: 2015 (Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk)
Worst Class: 2013 (Laquon Treadwell)
The 2012 class was also considered, producing Stefan Diggs as a fifth rounder and Nelson Agholor as a first rounder, but with Thomas Johnson being convicted of murder it certainly knocks that class down a peg.
Offensive Line
Best Class: 2012 (Andrus Peat, DJ Humphries, Isaac Seumalo)
Worst Class: 2015 (Chuma Edoga)
The 2012 class had the most draft picks, including a pair of first rounders (Peat, Humphries). Martez Ivey was the No. 2 overall player in the 2015 class but ended up going undrafted.
Defensive End
Best Class: 2012 (Dante Fowler, Arik Armstead, Noah Spence, Jonathan Bullard)
Worst Class: 2015 (Byron Cowart, Josh Sweat
The 2015 class had seven five star defensive ends, but none went in the first two rounds and four were undrafted.
Defensive Tackle
Best Class: 2016 (Ed Oliver, Dexter Lawrence, Derrick Brown)
Worst Class: 2011 (Timmy Jernigan)
The 2016 defensive tackle was excellent, with three of the five five-stars going in round one, and another (Rashard Lawrence) went in the fourth round. The No. 5 player in the 2011 class was Anthony Johnson, who went undrafted out of LSU.
Linebacker
Best Class: 2013 (Jaylon Smith, Reuben Foster)
Worst Class: 2016 (Mack Wilson, Caleb Kelly)
If Jaylon Smith had not been injured in the final game of his college career, the former Notre Dame star would have been the second first round pick in that class. The 2016 class produced just one drafted player, Mack Wilson in the fifth round.
Safety
Best Class: 2014 (Jamal Adams, Jabril Peppers)
Adams and Peppers were both first round picks, and Adams was the only Top 10 pick of all the safeties in this period. There really wasn’t a “bad” safety class. There was at least a second round pick in each class.
Cornerback
Best Class: 2013 (Jalen Ramsey, Vernon Hargreaves, Kendall Fuller, Mackensie Alexander)
Worst Class: 2012 (Ronald Darby)
The 2013 class was loaded while the 2012 class had just one drafted player. There is only one drafted player currently from the 2016 class as well, but there are players from that class still in college.
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